Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Eurozona. L’inflazione a due cifre dovrebbe rendere ragionevole la Ecb.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-10-05.

0000-0000__ Blocco Europeo al 2022-09-18 001

La crisi economica della zona euro si è intensificata con la prima lettura di un’inflazione a due cifre, che ha messo sotto pressione la Banca Centrale Europea affinché continui ad aumentare i tassi di interesse in modo aggressivo. I prezzi al consumo sono aumentati del 10% rispetto a un anno fa nel mese di settembre, secondo i dati Eurostat di venerdì. Si tratta di un dato superiore alla previsione mediana del 9,7% formulata da un sondaggio Bloomberg tra gli economisti, e segna il quinto mese consecutivo in cui il risultato supera il consenso.

L’energia e i generi alimentari hanno ancora una volta guidato l’inflazione, anche se la misura sottostante che li esclude ha superato le stime raggiungendo il massimo storico del 4.8%. Questa settimana gli investitori hanno iniziato a prevedere il secondo aumento consecutivo di 75 punti base. Boris Vujcic, il governatore della banca centrale croata che entrerà a far parte del Consiglio direttivo della BCE a gennaio, ha avvertito in un’intervista pubblicata questa settimana che quando l’inflazione è alta, quando si avvicina a livelli a due cifre, può diventare una malattia in sé.

Con la Russia che affama l’Europa con le forniture di gas e l’inverno alle porte, i responsabili politici si preparano a vivere mesi ancora più difficili. Gli aumenti dei prezzi potrebbero accelerare ulteriormente in alcuni Paesi, mentre le recessioni diventano sempre più probabili. Le ultime previsioni dell’OCSE sono in linea con questa visione. I rischi per le prospettive dell’inflazione sono principalmente al rialzo, soprattutto a causa della possibilità di ulteriori gravi interruzioni delle forniture energetiche. Prevediamo di aumentare ulteriormente i tassi di interesse nelle prossime riunioni per frenare la domanda e prevenire il rischio di un persistente rialzo delle aspettative di inflazione.

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«The euro zone’s economic crisis intensified with the first ever reading of double-digit inflation, piling pressure on the European Central Bank to keep raising interest rates aggressively. Consumer prices surged 10 per cent from a year ago in September, data from Eurostat showed Friday. That’s more than the median forecast of 9.7 per cent in a Bloomberg survey of economists, and marks the fifth straight month the result has exceeded consensus»

«Energy and food once again drove inflation, though an underlying measure that excludes them also topped estimates to reach an all-time high of 4.8 per cent. Investors this week began pricing in a second straight 75 basis-point increase. Boris Vujcic, the Croatian central-bank governor who will join the ECB Governing Council in January, warned in an interview published this week that when inflation is high, when it nears double-digit levels, it can become a disease in itself»

«With Russia starving Europe of gas supplies and winter approaching, policy makers are bracing for an even more difficult few months. Price increases may yet accelerate further in some countries, while recessions are becoming increasingly likely. The latest OECD forecasts chime with that view. The risks to the inflation outlook are primarily on the upside, mainly reflecting the possibility of further major disruptions in energy supplies. We expect to raise interest rates further over the next several meetings to dampen demand and guard against the risk of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations»

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Euro-Zone Inflation at Double-Digit Record Piles Pressure on ECB

Frankfurt – The euro zone’s economic crisis intensified with the first ever reading of double-digit inflation, piling pressure on the European Central Bank to keep raising interest rates aggressively.

Consumer prices surged 10 per cent from a year ago in September, data from Eurostat showed Friday. That’s more than the median forecast of 9.7 per cent in a Bloomberg survey of economists, and marks the fifth straight month the result has exceeded consensus.

Energy and food once again drove inflation, though an underlying measure that excludes them also topped estimates to reach an all-time high of 4.8 per cent. Such data have proven critical in driving momentum toward large rate hikes in previous months, and this result is likely to embolden calls for another large move at the next ECB decision on Oct 27. Investors this week began pricing in a second straight 75 basis-point increase. “The next step still has to be big because we are still far away from rates that are consistent with 2 per cent inflation,” ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks, said Wednesday in an interview in Vilnius, Lithuania, where price growth was 22.5 per cent. “I would side with 75 basis points.”

While officials ramped up their aggression with a move of that size on Sept. 8, they’ve also sought to differentiate the euro zone’s experience with that of the US, insisting that inflation in their own region is far more supply-driven than the demand-propelled consumer-price situation across the Atlantic.

Even so, policy makers will be nervous at yet another record reading. Boris Vujcic, the Croatian central-bank governor who will join the ECB Governing Council in January, warned in an interview published this week that “when inflation is high, when it nears double-digit levels, it can become a disease in itself.”

With Russia starving Europe of gas supplies and winter approaching, policy makers are bracing for an even more difficult few months. Price increases may yet accelerate further in some countries, while recessions are becoming increasingly likely. The latest OECD forecasts chime with that view.

Officials on Monday raised their projection for euro-zone inflation next year by 1.6 percentage points to 6.2 per cent, noticeably exceeding the ECB’s own outlook. Hours later, ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated that her officials also see the danger of a higher outcome.

“The risks to the inflation outlook are primarily on the upside, mainly reflecting the possibility of further major disruptions in energy supplies,” she told lawmakers. “We expect to raise interest rates further over the next several meetings to dampen demand and guard against the risk of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations.” Bloomberg

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