Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Stati Uniti, Unione Europea

Enclave liberal occidentale. L’inflazione disintegra lo obbligazionario. 15,000 miliardi in fumo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-09-13.

2022-09-13__ Buoni del tesoro 001

«Double-digit losses have been the norm for fixed-income investors in 2022»

«Le perdite a due cifre sono state la norma per gli investitori a reddito fisso nel 2022»

«Bear market leaves bond investors with few places to hide»

«Il mercato in rosso lascia agli investitori obbligazionari pochi posti dove nascondersi»

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Il mercato degli orsi lascia agli investitori obbligazionari pochi posti dove nascondersi. Gli investitori a reddito fisso hanno accumulato perdite a due cifre. I Treasury fanno peggio del debito societario e cartolarizzato.

Sono stati 12 mesi difficili per gli investitori obbligazionari globali, culminati con la caduta in un raro mercato orso. E ci sono pochi segnali di una tregua a breve. Le perdite a due cifre sono state la norma per gli investitori a reddito fisso nel 2022, sia che si tratti della durata delle obbligazioni, del tipo di debito o del settore dell’emittente. Potrebbero esserci altri ribassi all’orizzonte, dato che le banche centrali continuano ad adoperarsi per domare l’inflazione più alta degli ultimi decenni.

Ci sarà ancora da soffrire. La Fed, in particolare, è molto impegnata a dare priorità all’inflazione piuttosto che preoccuparsi della recessione.

I Treasury a livello globale hanno registrato una performance peggiore rispetto alle obbligazioni societarie e ai titoli di debito cartolarizzati dall’inizio del 2021. I titoli di Stato statunitensi sono stati sotto pressione negli ultimi tempi, in quanto la Federal Reserve ha intrapreso la sua campagna di inasprimento più aggressiva dagli anni ’80 e ha deciso di continuare ad aumentare i tassi per riportare l’inflazione al suo obiettivo del 2%.

Il debito pubblico è stato il più colpito, dato che un anno fa una parte consistente del mercato offriva rendimenti negativi. Lo stock di titoli con rendimenti inferiori allo zero superava allora i 15,000 miliardi di dollari, con gli investitori che pagavano per detenere bund tedeschi a 10 anni e obbligazioni giapponesi, oltre a titoli italiani a due anni. In quasi tutti i settori, le perdite del 2022 si sono aggiunte a quelle accumulate lo scorso anno. I titoli legati all’energia sono quelli che hanno subito i minori ribassi durante il crollo.

Le obbligazioni denominate in valute europee hanno sottoperformato nel 2022, dopo che la crisi energetica del continente ha aumentato le probabilità di una recessione. Le forti oscillazioni dei mercati valutari, guidate dall’inflazione più alta degli ultimi decenni in molte nazioni, hanno aggravato le perdite per gli investitori che seguono un portafoglio in dollari. Nemmeno le obbligazioni a più breve scadenza sono state risparmiate, anche se le loro perdite su base annua, pari a quasi il 10%, sono ben al di sotto del calo di quasi il 30% registrato dalle obbligazioni con scadenza superiore ai 10 anni.

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«Bear market leaves bond investors with few places to hide. Fixed-income investors have racked up double-digit losses. Treasuries fare worse than corporate and securitized debt»

«It’s been a harrowing 12 months for global bond investors, culminating in a fall into a rare bear market. And there are few signs of a reprieve soon. Double-digit losses have been the norm for fixed-income investors in 2022, whether it be by bond duration, type of debt or industry of issuer. More declines may be on the horizon as central banks press on with efforts to tame the highest inflation in decades.»

«There is still some pain to come. The Fed, in particular, is very committed to prioritizing inflation as opposed to being concerned about recession»

«Treasuries globally have performed worse than corporate bonds and securitized debt securities since early 2021. US government bonds have been under pressure of late as the Federal Reserve embarked on its most aggressive tightening campaign since the 1980s, and resolved to continue raising rates to bring inflation back to its 2% target»

«Government debt has been the worst hit, given a sizable chunk of the market was offering negative yields a year ago. The stockpile of notes with sub-zero yields exceeded $15 trillion then, with investors paying to hold 10-year German bunds and Japanese bonds, along with two-year Italian securities. Across almost all sectors, losses in 2022 have come on top of those racked up last year. Energy-related bonds have suffered the smallest declines during the slump»

«Bonds denominated in European currencies have underperformed in 2022, after the continent’s energy crisis increased the odds of a recession. Large swings in currency markets, driven by the highest inflation in decades in many nations, have compounded losses for investors tracking a dollar portfolio. Even shorter-duration bonds haven’t been spared, although their year-to-date losses of close to 10% are far below the near 30% drop for notes with maturities of above 10 years»

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Bear Market Leaves Bond Investors With Few Places to Hide

– Fixed-income investors have racked up double-digit losses

– Treasuries fare worse than corporate and securitized debt

* * * * * * *

It’s been a harrowing 12 months for global bond investors, culminating in a fall into a rare bear market. And there are few signs of a reprieve soon. 

Double-digit losses have been the norm for fixed-income investors in 2022, whether it be by bond duration, type of debt or industry of issuer. More declines may be on the horizon as central banks press on with efforts to tame the highest inflation in decades.

“There is still some pain to come,” said Pauline Chrystal, a portfolio manager at Kapstream Capital in Sydney. “The Fed, in particular, is very committed to prioritizing inflation as opposed to being concerned about recession.”

Here is a look at how losses have been shared out across the different debt classes: 

Treasuries globally have performed worse than corporate bonds and securitized debt securities since early 2021. US government bonds have been under pressure of late as the Federal Reserve embarked on its most aggressive tightening campaign since the 1980s, and resolved to continue raising rates to bring inflation back to its 2% target.

Government debt has been the worst hit, given a sizable chunk of the market was offering negative yields a year ago. The stockpile of notes with sub-zero yields exceeded $15 trillion then, with investors paying to hold 10-year German bunds and Japanese bonds, along with two-year Italian securities. 

Across almost all sectors, losses in 2022 have come on top of those racked up last year. Energy-related bonds have suffered the smallest declines during the slump. 

                         Europe Worst

Bonds denominated in European currencies have underperformed in 2022, after the continent’s energy crisis increased the odds of a recession. Large swings in currency markets, driven by the highest inflation in decades in many nations, have compounded losses for investors tracking a dollar portfolio.  

Even shorter-duration bonds haven’t been spared, although their year-to-date losses of close to 10% are far below the near 30% drop for notes with maturities of above 10 years.

High-yield bonds have lost less globally than their investment-grade peers since early 2021. This suggests that investors aren’t pricing in a deep recession, and the notes offer some value as a buffer against rising benchmark rates.

The global increase in borrowing costs has whipsawed debt markets, with volatility soaring to levels last seen in July 2020. With central banks yet to declare victory in the battle against inflation, bond investors may have to gear up for more turbulence ahead.

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