Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. La fiducia delle imprese tedesche cala mentre l’economia si contrae.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-31.

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L’indicatore dell’Istituto Ifo sulle aspettative delle imprese per i prossimi sei mesi è sceso a 80.3 da 80.4 di luglio, anche se gli economisti avevano previsto un calo più marcato. Anche le condizioni attuali sono state valutate più negativamente. Mentre il Paese si affretta a liberarsi dall’energia russa, le indagini congiunturali evidenziano la Germania come un punto debole all’interno della zona euro a 19 nazioni. La produzione ha iniziato a ridursi già a luglio e si è nuovamente contratta ad agosto.

Le prospettive per i prossimi mesi sono chiaramente pessimistiche, ha dichiarato il presidente dell’Ifo Clemens Fuest. L’incertezza tra le imprese rimane alta. È probabile che la produzione economica si riduca nel terzo trimestre. L’Ifo prevede una contrazione di circa lo 0.5% nei tre mesi fino a settembre, a causa della debolezza dei consumi privati. Ciò è ovviamente dovuto all’elevato tasso di inflazione che stiamo osservando in Germania, che sta chiaramente pesando sul potere d’acquisto delle famiglie. L’inflazione, nel frattempo, potrebbe raggiungere il 10% circa verso la fine dell’anno.

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«The Ifo Institute’s gauge of business expectations for the next six months inched down to 80.3 from 80.4 in July, though economists had predicted a steeper decline. Current conditions were also assessed more negatively. As the country rushes to wean itself off  Russian energy, business surveys are highlighting Germany as a weak spot within the 19-nation euro zone. Output already began to shrink in July and contracted again in August»

«The outlook for the coming months is clearly pessimistic, said Ifo President Clemens Fuest. Uncertainty among companies remains high. Economic output is likely to shrink in the third quarter. Ifo expects a contraction of about 0.5% in the three months through September on weak private consumption. This is of course to do with the high inflation rate we are observing in Germany, which is clearly weighing on the purchasing power of households. Inflation, meanwhile, may reach about 10% toward year-end»

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German Business Confidence Falls as Economy Already Contracting

(Bloomberg). The Ifo Institute’s gauge of business expectations for the next six months inched down to 80.3 from 80.4 in July, though economists had predicted a steeper decline. Current conditions were also assessed more negatively. Still, separate data showed that the economy proved more resilient than initially thought in the second quarter.

As the country rushes to wean itself off Russian energy, business surveys are highlighting Germany as a weak spot within the 19-nation euro zone. Output already began to shrink in July and contracted again in August, S&P Global said in a separate release earlier this week. 

The outlook for the coming months is “clearly pessimistic,” said Ifo President Clemens Fuest. “Uncertainty among companies remains high. Economic output is likely to shrink in the third quarter.”

Ifo expects a contraction of about 0.5% in the three months through September on weak private consumption, Timo Wollmershaeuser, a senior economist at the institute, told Bloomberg TV on Thursday.

The Ifo index is seeing the worst declines in the retail sector. “This is of course to do with the high inflation rate we are observing in Germany, which is clearly weighing on the purchasing power of households,” he said.

In the second quarter, a growth rate of 0.1% exceeded a preliminary estimate and helped the country narrowly escape stagnation, though it won’t do much to dispel fears over the outlook.

The expansion was driven by government expenditures, with household spending also contributing, according to a release by the statistics office on Thursday. But the headwinds to growth are getting stronger, with Russia curtailing natural gas shipments, and soaring prices menacing households and companies. 

The Bundesbank said this week that third-quarter output will more or less stagnate, while the risk of a contraction in the fourth quarter of 2022 and first quarter of 2023 has increased “considerably.” Inflation, meanwhile, may reach about 10% toward year-end. 

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