Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Usa. Powel gela gli ottimismi. La lotta alla inflazione è prioritaria. Costi quel che costi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-08-28.

2022-08-29__ Bull Cases Were Coming True Before Powell 001

«It is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth and a rise in unemployment»

«Mutual funds have raised their money holdings on the quickest price because the world monetary disaster, whereas fairness publicity amongst hedge funds hovers close to a two-year low»

«But Powell made it clear that company income and joyful shoppers aren’t his company’s precedence»

«Consumers nonetheless flush with money stay optimistic»

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Qualcosa di insolito si è verificato per le più grandi argomentazioni dei tori dell’inventario, perché il mercato è crollato nella sua peggiore settimana da giugno: Si sono rivelati corretti. Le aziende americane si stanno divertendo con i margini di guadagno più consistenti degli ultimi sette anni. I consumatori, ancora pieni di soldi, rimangono ottimisti. Insieme, sarebbe stato eccessivo per Jerome Powell, una persona che senza dubbio si oppone alla fiducia del mercato mentre combatte l’inflazione. Il suo avvertimento senza mezzi termini di venerdì, secondo il quale il sistema economico può soffrire nella battaglia, ha mandato le azioni in tilt.

L’S&P 500 è crollato di oltre il 3% dopo che il presidente della Federal Reserve ha detto che potrebbero essere giustificati ulteriori rialzi di dimensioni gigantesche e che i prezzi rimarranno elevati finché l’inflazione non si attenuerà. Per abbassare i costi è probabile che sia necessario un periodo prolungato di crescita inferiore al trend e un aumento della disoccupazione.

Il feedback, indubbiamente voluto, ha frenato i tori, la cui spavalderia era diventata una priorità per i responsabili delle coperture, intenzionati a domare un’impennata generazionale dei costi. Il mercato era inopportunamente ottimista sul fatto che la Fed sarebbe stata in grado di essere più dovish oggi e nel corso dei prossimi sei-dodici mesi. L’S&P 500 è sceso del 4% in 5 giorni, segnando la peggiore settimana da quando il mercato orso ha raggiunto il suo nadir. Le azioni tecnologiche hanno perso il 5.6% nell’intervallo. Quasi tutto il danno è arrivato venerdì, quando una settimana estiva svogliata è diventata torrida dopo una discussione di otto minuti che ha visto Powell prendere di mira direttamente l’ottimismo del mercato.

I fondi comuni di investimento hanno aumentato le loro disponibilità monetarie al ritmo più rapido da quando è scoppiato il disastro monetario mondiale, mentre la pubblicità azionaria tra gli hedge fund è vicina ai minimi da due anni a questa parte. Ma Powell ha chiarito che il reddito delle aziende e la gioia degli acquirenti non sono la priorità della sua azienda, e se i problemi si ripercuotono su queste aree, è un valore che apparentemente è pronto ad accettare: un’inversione di rotta per un istituto finanziario centrale che per anni è stato il più grande alleato del mercato. Powell ci sta dicendo che fino a quando non ci sarà una conferma sostanziale del rallentamento dell’aumento dei prezzi, la Fed terrà il piede sul freno. Con la Fed che continua ad aumentare in modo aggressivo, è probabile che gli utili subiscano un ulteriore ribasso nella seconda metà dell’anno, facendo apparire il mercato ancora più costoso, a parità di altre condizioni.

* * * * * * *

«Something unusual occurred to the inventory bull’s greatest arguments because the market slumped to its worst week since June: They turned out to be proper. Corporate America is having fun with the fattest revenue margins in seven many years. Consumers, nonetheless flush with money, stay optimistic. Together, it would’ve been an excessive amount of for Jerome Powell — a person who doubtless opposes market confidence as he fights inflation. His blunt warning Friday that the economic system can be a sufferer within the battle despatched shares right into a tailspin.»

«The S&P 500 plunged greater than 3% after the Federal Reserve chair mentioned extra jumbo-sized hikes could also be warranted and charges will stay elevated till inflation eases. Bringing down costs “is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth” and a rise in unemployment»

«The feedback, doubtlessly by design, hobbled bulls whose swagger itself had change into a priority for coverage makers intent on taming a generational surge in costs. The market was inappropriately optimistic that the Fed was going to be able to be more dovish today and over the course of the next six to 12 months. The S&P 500 dropped 4% within the 5 days for its worst week because the bear market reached its nadir. Tech shares misplaced 5.6% within the interval. Virtually all the injury got here Friday, when a listless summer season week turned torrid after an eight-minute coverage discuss that noticed Powell take direct goal at market optimism»

«Mutual funds have raised their money holdings on the quickest price because the world monetary disaster, whereas fairness publicity amongst hedge funds hovers close to a two-year low. But Powell made it clear that company income and joyful shoppers aren’t his company’s precedence, and if hassle redounds to these areas then that’s a worth he’s apparently prepared to simply accept — a job reversal for a central financial institution that for years was the market’s largest ally. Powell is telling us that until we see substantial confirmation of slowing price increases, the Fed will keep its foot on the brakes. With the Fed continuing to hike aggressively, earnings are likely to see further downside in the back half of the year, making the market look even more expensive, all else equal»

* * * * * * *


Bull Cases Were Coming True Before Powell Warnings Wallop Stocks

(Bloomberg) — Something unusual occurred to the inventory bull’s greatest arguments because the market slumped to its worst week since June: They turned out to be proper.

Corporate America is having fun with the fattest revenue margins in seven many years. Consumers, nonetheless flush with money, stay optimistic. Together, it would’ve been an excessive amount of for Jerome Powell — a person who doubtless opposes market confidence as he fights inflation. His blunt warning Friday that the economic system can be a sufferer within the battle despatched shares right into a tailspin.

The S&P 500 plunged greater than 3% after the Federal Reserve chair mentioned extra jumbo-sized hikes could also be warranted and charges will stay elevated till inflation eases. Bringing down costs “is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth” and a rise in unemployment, Powell mentioned on the Kansas City Fed’s annual coverage discussion board in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

The feedback, doubtlessly by design, hobbled bulls whose swagger itself had change into a priority for coverage makers intent on taming a generational surge in costs. Stocks had surged since June on hypothesis the Fed would start chopping charges subsequent yr. Those bets pale as buyers retrenched for an financial slowdown that is likely to be extra annoying than beforehand anticipated. Treasury yields have been little modified, doubtless capped by buyers in search of refuge in authorities bonds.

“The market was inappropriately optimistic that the Fed was going to be able to be more dovish today and over the course of the next six to 12 months,” mentioned Phil Orlando, chief fairness market strategist at Federated Hermes. “Powell dissuaded the market from believing that, and we think stocks should go lower, materially lower.”

The S&P 500 dropped 4% within the 5 days for its worst week because the bear market reached its nadir. Tech shares misplaced 5.6% within the interval. Virtually all the injury got here Friday, when a listless summer season week turned torrid after an eight-minute coverage discuss that noticed Powell take direct goal at market optimism.

The inventory features have been, by Powell’s personal admission, an issue for coverage makers, who’re monitoring whether or not measures of stress throughout belongings — generally known as monetary circumstances — are “appropriately tight” for bringing down inflation. Stocks had added as a lot as $7 trillion in values from June lows and 10-year Treasury yields had slipped from multiyear highs as buyers grew extra assured any recession can be quick and delicate.

“It would not be too much of a stretch to call this an ‘anti-pivot’ speech,” Evercore ISI analysts Krishna Guha and Peter Williams wrote in a word. “Pivot optimism seems to have lingered longest in equities amid rising hopes for a risk-friendly reaction function when trade-offs emerge –- setting stocks up for a larger move lower on the day.”

While simple to overlook amid the flurry of hypothesis forward of Powell’s flip in Wyoming, these market optimists had gotten appreciable affirmation for views that had beforehand been ridiculed — that earnings don’t essentially get crushed by inflation, and that shopper sentiment isn’t on a one-way journey to the cellar.

In reality, a measure of US revenue margins reached its widest since 1950, suggesting that the costs charged by companies are outpacing their elevated prices for manufacturing and labor, authorities knowledge confirmed this week. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s last sentiment index for August climbed greater than anticipated as year-ahead inflation expectations eased.

For these nursing wounds Friday, it could be minor recompense, however they could possibly be developments bulls monitor carefully as soon as the rapid implications from Powell’s speech fade. After all, from inventory pickers to fast-money merchants, nearly everybody has hunkered down by lowering inventory positions to under longer-term norms.

Mutual funds have raised their money holdings on the quickest price because the world monetary disaster, whereas fairness publicity amongst hedge funds hovers close to a two-year low, knowledge compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. present.

“Liquidity is not great and trading desks are not fully staffed, so it’s tough to read too much into the immediate price action,” mentioned Zachary Hill, head of portfolio administration at Horizon Investment. “When desks are fully staffed after Labor Day, the market setup could look a good bit different than it does today.”

But Powell made it clear that company income and joyful shoppers aren’t his company’s precedence, and if hassle redounds to these areas then that’s a worth he’s apparently prepared to simply accept — a job reversal for a central financial institution that for years was the market’s largest ally.

“Powell is telling us that until we see substantial confirmation of slowing price increases, the Fed will keep its foot on the brakes,” mentioned Kara Murphy, chief funding officer at Kestra Holdings. “With the Fed continuing to hike aggressively, earnings are likely to see further downside in the back half of the year, making the market look even more expensive, all else equal.”

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