Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Senza categoria, Unione Europea

Gas Naturale. La crisi in Europa è peggiore di quanto possa sembrare.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-07-16.

La crisi del gas naturale in Europa è peggiore di quanto sembri.

I costi dei combustibili puri in Europa sono ancora ben al di sotto del massimo storico stabilito a marzo. Tuttavia, se si scava un po’ più a fondo, si nota che di solito segnalano un’interruzione più prolungata di quanto i mercati avessero previsto all’indomani dell’invasione dell’Ucraina da parte di Vladimir Putin.

Mentre allora il mercato dei carburanti prezzava una catastrofe di breve durata, che sarebbe durata forse qualche mese, ora segnala un rischio eccessivo per l’inverno successivo, fino al 2023 e, sempre di più, fino al 2024.

A marzo, un produttore tedesco poteva bloccare i costi del carburante per tutto il 2023 a circa 80 euro per megawattora; ora deve pagare 145 euro per coprire la stessa minaccia.

La scorsa settimana, il contratto olandese TTF, un benchmark europeo a pronti, è salito a circa 175 euro.

Il 5 marzo – quando il costo del carburante a pronti è salito a circa 185 euro – il contratto per la fornitura a dicembre 2022 è salito solo a circa 155 euro; la settimana scorsa, quando il valore a pronti era appena inferiore, il contratto di dicembre è stato scambiato a quasi 195 euro.

Il gasdotto Nord Stream 1, collegamento cruciale tra la Russia e l’Unione Europea, è sottoposto a manutenzione annuale dall’11 al 21 luglio.

Tatticamente, è più probabile che Mosca mantenga il trasferimento di una parte del carburante, mantenendo la scelta di tagliare o rallentare i flussi in qualsiasi momento quando lo desidera.

C’è un’ulteriore minaccia in avanti: A un certo punto, Mosca chiuderà completamente il rubinetto, molto probabilmente prima dell’inverno, per cercare di mettere in ginocchio il sistema finanziario tedesco. È una conseguenza che il mercato non ha ancora valutato.

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«Europe’s natural-gas crisis is worse than it looks»

«European pure fuel costs are nonetheless properly beneath the all-time excessive set in March. Dig a bit deeper, nonetheless, they usually are signaling a extra protracted disruption than markets anticipated within the quick aftermath of  Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine»

«While the fuel market then priced in a short-lived disaster, lasting maybe a few months, it’s now flashing excessive hazard for subsequent winter, by way of 2023 and, more and more, into 2024»

«Back in March, a German producer may lock in fuel costs for all of 2023 at about 80 euros per megawatt hour; now, it has to pay a document excessive 145 euros to hedge the identical worth threat»

«Last week, the intently watched Dutch TTF contract, a European spot benchmark, rose to about 175 euros»

«On March 5 — when spot fuel costs surged to about 185 euros — the contract for supply in December 2022 rose solely to about 155 euros; final week, when the spot worth was barely decrease, the December contract traded at almost 195 euros»

«The Nord Stream 1 pipeline, crucial fuel hyperlink between Russia and the European Union, undergoes annual upkeep from July 11 to July 21»

«Tactically, Moscow is more likely to hold some fuel transferring, retaining the choice of chopping or slowing flows at any time when it chooses»

«There’s additional threat forward: At some level, Moscow will fully flip off the faucet, most likely simply earlier than the winter, to attempt to deliver the German financial system to its knees. That’s an consequence the market hasn’t priced but»

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Europe’s Natural-Gas Crisis Is Worse Than It Looks

European pure fuel costs are nonetheless properly beneath the all-time excessive set in March. Dig a bit deeper, nonetheless, they usually are signaling a extra protracted disruption than markets anticipated within the quick aftermath of  Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

While the fuel market then priced in a short-lived disaster, lasting maybe a few months, it’s now flashing excessive hazard for subsequent winter, by way of 2023 and, more and more, into 2024. Over the previous couple of days, the entire European fuel worth curve has repriced at a a lot larger degree.

The shift within the ahead curve has been essentially the most notable improvement of the fuel market in the previous month – one which’s not gathering sufficient consideration in European capitals. But the business is keenly conscious, because it’s bearing the fee. Back in March, a German producer may lock in fuel costs for all of 2023 at about 80 euros per megawatt hour; now, it has to pay a document excessive 145 euros to hedge the identical worth threat.

Last week, the intently watched Dutch TTF contract, a European spot benchmark, rose to about 175 euros, doubling in a month, after Russia minimize provides by way of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline into Germany. Even so, spot fuel costs stay 30% beneath the document excessive settlement of 227 euros set in the course of the early days of the conflict — worrying, however not alarming; costs are excessive, however not that top. After what the market weathered in March, one can perceive why coverage makers aren’t panicking.

But that’s should you ignore the motion on the again finish of the curve. On March 5 — when spot fuel costs surged to about 185 euros — the contract for supply in December 2022 rose solely to about 155 euros; final week, when the spot worth was barely decrease, the December contract traded at almost 195 euros.

A yr into Russia manipulating European fuel provides, the market is lastly satisfied that Moscow will proceed to take action, and maybe with better depth.The first check comes within the subsequent two weeks. The Nord Stream 1 pipeline, crucial fuel hyperlink between Russia and the European Union, undergoes annual upkeep from July 11 to July 21. Berlin fears that Moscow will discover an excuse to maintain it closed for good, chopping fuel provides to Germany fully. After all that Moscow has finished, the German authorities is correct to be involved.Yet, Russia might wish to hold some fuel flowing to protect its long-term leverage. From a game-theory standpoint, that is sensible. Once Russia stops shipments fully, it could possibly now not apply strain. Tactically, Moscow is more likely to hold some fuel transferring, retaining the choice of chopping or slowing flows at any time when it chooses.

Moreover, Nord Stream 1 is the primary route for Russian fuel into Europe listed towards the TTF contract, in line with Goldman Sachs. Not reopening the pipeline after the upkeep shutdown will restrict the revenue that Gazprom, the Russian state-owned fuel large, enjoys from sky-high fuel costs.Russia has clearly written off its fuel relationship with Europe. For now, nonetheless, the Kremlin will proceed to get pleasure from one of the best of each worlds: excessive income and compelling leverage. To obtain its aims, Russia must proceed promoting some fuel into Germany, however at lowered charges, because it’s at the moment doing.The market is correct to reprice the fuel curve; the one query is why it took so lengthy. There’s additional threat forward: At some level, Moscow will fully flip off the faucet, most likely simply earlier than the winter, to attempt to deliver the German financial system to its knees. That’s an consequence the market hasn’t priced but.