Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Banche Centrali in attesa dei dati su inflazione e produzione industriale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-07-12.

I dati sull’inflazione negli Stati Uniti della prossima settimana potrebbero rafforzare la decisione della Federal Reserve di procedere a un altro grande aumento dei tassi di interesse nel corso del mese.

L’indice dei prezzi al consumo è probabilmente aumentato di quasi il 9% a giugno rispetto a un anno prima.

L’IPC dovrebbe aumentare dell’1.1%, segnando il terzo mese su quattro con un aumento di almeno l’1%.

Mentre un’inflazione persistentemente alta e diffusa dovrebbe convincere i funzionari della Fed ad aumentare il tasso di riferimento di 75 punti base per la seconda riunione consecutiva il 27 luglio, le preoccupazioni per la recessione stanno aumentando.

Tuttavia, è probabile che i dati sull’inflazione siano oggetto di maggiore attenzione a livello globale, dopo che il risultato di maggio ha causato turbolenze sui mercati finanziari.

La prossima settimana saranno pubblicati anche i dati sui prezzi alla produzione, sulla produzione industriale e sulla fiducia dei consumatori, oltre al Beige Book della Fed.

La Banca del Canada accelererà il rialzo con un aumento dei tassi di 75 punti base, se le scommesse degli investitori sono da credere.

Nel frattempo, è probabile che la stretta monetaria globale continui seriamente: oltre al Canada, i responsabili politici di Cile, Nuova Zelanda e Corea del Sud possono ottenere rialzi dei tassi di almeno 50 punti base.

La Cina si sta preparando a un’eccellente settimana di dati economici, che potrebbero influenzare le prospettive della politica monetaria e fiscale per il resto dell’anno.

I responsabili politici della Banca Centrale Europea hanno tempo fino a mercoledì per esprimere pubblicamente le loro opinioni sulla riunione del 21 luglio, prima che scatti il blackout pre-decisionale,

I funzionari tedeschi temono che la chiusura di 10 giorni per manutenzione ordinaria possa diventare permanente.

Tra i dati attesi, mercoledì la produzione industriale della zona euro segnalerà probabilmente un rallentamento dell’espansione con l’avanzare del secondo trimestre, mentre venerdì verrà rivelato lo stato del peggioramento del deficit commerciale della regione, che forse si rifletterà nella caduta dell’euro a un minimo di due decenni.

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«Next week’s US inflation data may reinforce the Federal Reserve’s decision to proceed with another big interest rate hike later this month»

«CPI is forecast to rise 1.1%, marking the third month in four with an increase of at least 1%»

«While persistently high and widespread inflation is seen persuading Fed officials to raise their benchmark rate by 75 basis points for a second straight meeting on July 27, recession concerns are mounting»

«Still, the inflation data is likely to attract more scrutiny globally after a faster-than-consensus result for May caused turmoil in financial markets»

«Figures on producer prices, industrial production and consumer confidence, as well as the Fed’s Beige Book, will also be released next week»

«Bank of Canada will accelerate the hike with a 75 basis point rate hike, if investor bets are to be believed»

«Meanwhile, global monetary tightening is likely to continue in earnest: In addition to Canada, policymakers in Chile, New Zealand and South Korea can achieve rate hikes of at least 50 basis points»

«China is preparing for an excellent week of economic data that may shape the outlook for monetary and fiscal policy for the rest of the year»

«Policymakers at the European Central Bank have until Wednesday to express their views in public on their July 21 meeting before a pre-decision blackout ensues»

«German officials fear the 10-day closure for routine maintenance could become permanent»

«Among the data to be expected, euro zone industrial production on Wednesday will likely signal a slowdown in expansion as the second quarter progresses, while the state of the region’s worsening trade deficit will be revealed, perhaps reflected in the fall of the euro to a minimum of two decades. on Friday»

* * * * * * *


Fed Braces as Another Big US Inflation Number Looms: Eco Week.

(Bloomberg). Next week’s US inflation data may reinforce the Federal Reserve’s decision to proceed with another big interest rate hike later this month.

The closely watched consumer price index likely rose nearly 9% in June from a year earlier, a new four-decade high, according to the median projection of economists in a Bloomberg survey. Compared to May, the CPI is forecast to rise 1.1%, marking the third month in four with an increase of at least 1%.

While persistently high and widespread inflation is seen persuading Fed officials to raise their benchmark rate by 75 basis points for a second straight meeting on July 27, recession concerns are mounting. However, there are signs that price pressures at the producer level are stabilizing as the costs of raw materials, including energy, recede.

Still, the inflation data is likely to attract more scrutiny globally after a faster-than-consensus result for May caused turmoil in financial markets.

US inflation data follows Friday’s figures showing stronger-than-expected job growth and an unemployment rate near a five-decade low, underscoring a tight labor market that is helping keep wage growth high.

Figures on producer prices, industrial production and consumer confidence, as well as the Fed’s Beige Book, will also be released next week. Regional Fed Chairs Thomas Barkin and Raphael Bostic will discuss the economy and monetary policy in separate engagements.

What Bloomberg economics says:

“After employment data showed the labor market remains rock solid, rising gasoline prices will push June’s headline CPI to a new high. Even with growth slowing, the underlying shift to services will prevent the economy from slipping into a technical recession in the second quarter.”

Further north, in a precursor to the kind of decision the Fed faces, the Bank of Canada will accelerate the hike with a 75 basis point rate hike, if investor bets are to be believed.

Elsewhere, the unstable economic backdrop is likely to be the focus of daily array ministers and central bankers at the Group of 20 meeting in the Indonesian resort of Bali starting Friday. Senior officials are ready to discuss the latest on inflation, global risks, the war in Ukraine and debt.

Meanwhile, global monetary tightening is likely to continue in earnest: In addition to Canada, policymakers in Chile, New Zealand and South Korea can achieve rate hikes of at least 50 basis points.

Click here to see what happened last week, and below is a summary of what’s coming up in the global economy.

                         Asia

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Korea meet on Wednesday, with more major rate hikes expected in a bid to rein in inflation. Investors will watch as harbingers of global monetary tightening signal future action.

South Korea’s unemployment data is due out on the same day, while Australia’s employment report is due out on Thursday, providing insight into the state of the economy in the second quarter.

Earlier in the week, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is expected to meet with Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki ahead of G20 meetings in Indonesia.

China is preparing for an excellent week of economic data that may shape the outlook for monetary and fiscal policy for the rest of the year.

Wednesday’s trade data will give more clues about weakening global demand, ahead of Friday’s GDP figures, which are under increased scrutiny as covid outbreaks persist.

Fiscal data during the week will show the state of local government finances, while credit numbers will be watched for signs of improving business and household confidence.

                         Europe, Middle East, Africa

Policymakers at the European Central Bank have until Wednesday to express their views in public on their July 21 meeting before a pre-decision blackout ensues. They are preparing to start raising rates and reveal a crisis tool to mitigate the consequences of a weaker euro. Members like Italy.

ECB President Christine Lagarde will attend a meeting of euro zone daily array ministers earlier in the week, although a few other appearances are scheduled.

Their minds are likely to be on the temporary shutdown of Russia’s Nord Stream gas pipeline due to take effect on Monday. German officials fear the 10-day closure for routine maintenance could become permanent.

Among the data to be expected, euro zone industrial production on Wednesday will likely signal a slowdown in expansion as the second quarter progresses, while the state of the region’s worsening trade deficit will be revealed, perhaps reflected in the fall of the euro to a minimum of two decades. on Friday.

In the UK, economists expect gross domestic product to have barely risen in May after falling the previous month, in figures due Wednesday.

That picture of anemic growth amid runaway inflation faces Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who is due to deliver a speech on Tuesday. An ailing economy will also greet Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s successor when the process of replacing him begins in earnest.

Elsewhere in Europe, consumer price data for June will underline the impact of the cost of living that will reverberate across the continent, albeit unevenly.

The Czech Republic’s inflation rate is already among the highest in the region and is expected to rise further to above 17%. Lower, but still strong, will be equivalent numbers in Scandinavia. Sweden’s price growth is likely to reach 8.3%, according to economists.

Further south, data from Ghana on Wednesday is likely to show inflation nearly triple the central bank’s 10% target ceiling, a possible push to raise rates for the third time this year.

Nigerian data on Friday is expected to show inflation has accelerated for a fifth month. A significant acceleration could persuade policymakers to raise borrowing costs the following week.

Also on Friday, Israeli data may show inflation remains stubbornly above the government’s target of 1% to 3%.

                         Latin America

In a light week for Brazil, weekly trade figures should present more torrid export readings, while May retail sales figures may build on better-than-expected April results.

With its economy likely slowing into recession in the second half as interest rates and double-digit inflation rise, Chile’s central bank is in a tough spot. Most analysts expect a ninth consecutive hike, raising the benchmark rate to 9.5%.

In Mexico, a pick-up in headwinds (stubborn inflation, rising interest rates and less optimistic sentiment) suggest a slowdown in manufacturing and retail trade figures for May and June.

Argentina’s inflation data is expected to rise from 60.7% in May, prompting the central bank to raise its benchmark rate to 52%.

Peru records June unemployment for the capital Lima and May economic activity, which declined for the third month in April. The economy is below its pre-pandemic level.

In Colombia, May data on manufacturing, industrial production and retail sales should underscore why analysts have raised their GDP forecasts for 2022. Amid a host of challenges, its economy is seen to lead growth among large economies of the region this year.