Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Problemia Energetici

Germania. Blocco del gas russo. Effetto domino dei fallimenti. Implosione della Germania.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-07-11.

Germania 001

Si stanno propalando fiumi di parole per esprimere un concetto di rara semplicità.

Nel caso di un blocco russo all’export del gas naturale la Germania fallirebbe e scomparirebbe.

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Ulteriori tagli al gas sarebbero logici nella ‘guerra economica’ di Putin.

I prezzi elevati del gas naturale rischiano di creare un effetto domino.

La Germania dovrebbe prepararsi a tagli più profondi nelle forniture di gas russo perché il presidente Vladimir Putin sta perseguendo una strategia consapevole di far salire i prezzi per minare l’unità europea.

Non abbiamo a che fare con decisioni erratiche ma con una guerra economica, completamente razionale e molto chiara.

Dopo una riduzione del 60%, la successiva segue logicamente.

I leader tedeschi stanno intensificando gli avvertimenti di imminenti turbolenze e carenze di gas naturale nella più grande economia europea, che dipende dalla Russia per circa un terzo della sua energia.

Le aziende tedesche sono a rischio di fallimenti a cascata che potrebbero richiedere l’attivazione di una clausola legale che consentirebbe loro di trasferire gli aumenti di prezzo al di fuori degli impegni contrattuali.

Se una società dovesse fallire, o altre società dovessero fallire, sarebbe come un effetto domino che porterebbe molto rapidamente a una profonda recessione.

La Germania ha sollevato dubbi sul fatto che Nord Stream riprenderà le forniture dopo tale evento.

L’obiettivo della Russia è mantenere alti i prezzi dell’energia e distruggere l’unità e la solidarietà del Paese.

Il razionamento del gas presenta delle sfide perché la rete spesso non è separata tra clienti residenziali e commerciali.

Se una fabbrica è collegata alla rete del gas e un’intera parte della città è collegata ad essa, allora questa fabbrica non può essere tolta dalla rete.

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«Further gas cuts would be logical in Putin ‘economic warfare’»

«High natural-gas prices risk creating domino effect»

«Germany should prepare for deeper cuts in Russian gas supplies because President Vladimir Putin is pursuing a conscious strategy of driving up prices to undermine European unity»

«We aren’t dealing with erratic decisions but with economic warfare, completely rational and very clear»

«After a 60% reduction, the next one logically follows»

«German leaders are stepping up warnings of impending turmoil and natural-gas shortages in Europe’s biggest economy, which relies on Russia for about one-third of its energy»

«German utilities are at risk of cascading failures that might require activating a legal clause that would allow them to pass on price increases outside of contract commitments»

«If one company were to fail, or other companies were to fail, it’s like a domino effect that would very quickly lead into a deep recession»

«Germany has raised doubts that Nord Stream will resume supply after that»

«Russia’s goal is to keep energy prices high and destroy the unity and solidarity of the country»

«Gas rationing presents challenges because the grid often isn’t separated between residential and commercial customers»

«If a factory is connected to the gas network and a whole part of the city is connected to it, then this factory can’t be taken out of the network»

* * * * * * *


Business Germany Risks a Cascade of Utility Failures, Economy Chief Says

– Further gas cuts would be logical in Putin ‘economic warfare’

– High natural-gas prices risk creating domino effect: Habeck

* * * * * * *

Germany should prepare for deeper cuts in Russian gas supplies because President Vladimir Putin is pursuing a conscious strategy of driving up prices to undermine European unity, Economy Minister Robert Habeck said.

“We aren’t dealing with erratic decisions but with economic warfare, completely rational and very clear,” Habeck, the deputy chancellor in Olaf Scholz’s government, said Saturday on a panel. “After a 60% reduction, the next one logically follows.”

German leaders are stepping up warnings of impending turmoil and natural-gas shortages in Europe’s biggest economy, which relies on Russia for about one-third of its energy. Putin has gradually reduced supplies after European countries imposed sanctions in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

German utilities are at risk of cascading failures that might require activating a legal clause that would allow them to pass on price increases outside of contract commitments, Habeck said.  

Germany has refrained from activating the measure for now because it would lead to an “immediate price explosion” for consumers, he said at an event sponsored by the Die Zeit weekly. The government is working on an alternative, he said, without elaborating. 

“If one company were to fail, or other companies were to fail, it’s like a domino effect that would very quickly lead into a deep recession,” he said.

European energy companies are facing a squeeze after Russia curbed flows on a key gas link earlier this month, forcing utilities to buy fuel on the spot market at elevated prices. High power prices are increasingly prompting German factories and businesses to curb demand and the government has activated the second stage of a three-stage gas emergency plan. 

Russia has reduced shipments through Nord Stream by 60% and the pipeline is scheduled for a full shutdown this month for maintenance. Germany has raised doubts that Nord Stream will resume supply after that.

Russia’s goal is to keep energy prices high and “destroy the unity and solidarity of the country,” Habeck said.

Germany’s government and energy giant Uniper SE are discussing stabilization measures. Finance Minister Christian Lindner said any additional government assistance would be in the form of a loan guarantee.

Gas rationing — if it came to that — presents challenges because the grid often isn’t separated between residential and commercial customers, Habeck said.

If a factory is connected to the gas network and a whole part of the city is connected to it, then this factory can’t be taken out of the network. 

“That will probably then be regulated at the expense of the factories that are not connected to a mixed network,” Habeck said. 

Household customers in Germany are protected by law from gas shutoffs.

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