Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Usa. Midterm. Sondaggi. I repubblicani conquisterebbero sia il Congresso sia il Senato.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-06-26.

2022-06-24__ Sondaggi Congresso 001

Questi sono gli ultimi sondaggi disponibili per le elezioni di midterm.

2022-06-24__ Sondaggi Governatori 001

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2022-06-24__ Sondaggi Senato 001


Usual Midterm Indicators Very Unfavorable for Democrats

Washington, D.C. — With less than five months to go before voters elect all members of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate, the current Democratic congressional majority is facing an extremely unfavorable election environment.

The party of the president typically loses U.S. House seats in midterm elections — an average of 23 since 1974. However, 2022 is not shaping up to be an average year. Rather, as of May, Gallup finds presidential job approval and three other key national mood indicators well below the historical averages measured in past midterm election years. On their own, those numbers would all predict a greater-than-average loss of seats for the Democratic Party this fall.

Gallup’s latest data, from a May 2-22 survey, finds 41% of Americans approving of the job President Joe Biden is doing, 18% approving of the job Congress is doing, 16% satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S., and a 32-percentage-point deficit in positive (14%) versus negative (46%) ratings of current economic conditions. Each of those metrics is at least 10 points lower than the historical average at the time of past midterm elections, and most are on pace to be the worst of such readings. ….

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Could House Democrats lose 70 seats this fall?

Last month, Newt Gingrich made a bold (and seemingly wild) prediction about the midterm elections

“I think we’ll pick up between 25 and 70 seats in the House,” the former Republican House speaker said in an interview with Fox.

Seventy seats! That would not only eclipse the 63-seat gain Republicans made in the 2010 midterm elections, but would also be the largest seat switch in the House since 1948.

Gingrich, as he often does, was likely just riffing — going for an outlandishly high ceiling on Republican gains to draw headlines and attention.

Which, well, mission accomplished.

Gingrich’s ceiling of 70 seats is well in excess of where nonpartisan political handicappers are — at least at the moment. David Wasserman, the House editor at the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, is projecting Republicans gain between 20 and 35 seats. Nathan Gonzales of Inside Elections hasn’t released his range just yet — it’s coming next week — but says, “Republicans are well positioned to win the majority.”

New data from Gallup suggests that the national political environment is arguably worse for Democrats than it was in 2010 — raising at least the possibility that the party suffers even larger losses than currently predicted.

As Gallup’s Jeffrey M. Jones and Lydia Saad write:

“The party of the president typically loses U.S. House seats in midterm elections — an average of 23 since 1974. However, 2022 is not shaping up to be an average year. Rather, as of May, Gallup finds presidential job approval and three other key national mood indicators well below the historical averages measured in past midterm election years. On their own, those numbers would all predict a greater-than-average loss of seats for the Democratic Party this fall.”

A glance at the Gallup data — which looks at presidential approval, congressional approval, satisfaction with the direction of the country and overall judgment of economic conditions — reveals that the environment that was measured in May looks a lot like it did at the end of the 2010 cycle. ….