Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania in piena stagflazione già evidente nei dati dell’ultimo trimestre. – Bloomberg.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-19.

2022-01-16__ Germania 001

«German economic system heads for recession after shrinking final quarter»

«Germany is headed for its second recession of the pandemic after the emergence of the coronavirus’s omicron pressure compounded drags on output from provide snarls and the quickest inflation in three a long time»

«Europe’s largest financial system shrank by 0.5% to 1% within the remaining quarter of 2021»

«all predict one other contraction this quarter»

«For the entire of final 12 months, gross home product rose 2.7%  — matching estimates however nonetheless wanting its pre-crisis stage»

«The dimensions of the year-end stoop got here as a shock after the Bundesbank final month signaled solely a slight decline was seemingly»

«In the meantime, energy and heating prices have soared, whereas microchips and different inputs for factories stay scarce»

«bottlenecks are persisting, the surge in vitality costs is barely now reaching shoppers, and companies are weakened by the virus»

«output falling 0.8% between January and March»

«A big share of Germany’s struggles is rooted in its outsized reliance on manufacturing»

«Carmakers are struggling essentially the most, with nearly a fifth of workers within the trade furloughed in December …. with nearly a fifth of workers within the trade furloughed in December»

«Volkswagen reported 2021 gross sales declined to the bottom in a decade and warned chip provide will stay tight within the first half.»

«However inflation is an impediment. costs in Europe jumped to the best stage in per week on Friday amid tensions over Ukraine, suggesting client vitality prices — already rising at an annual tempo of just below 20% — might enhance additional»

«Practically 80% of non-food retailers surveyed by trade group HDE have been sad with end-of-year gross sales»

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La Germania è in stagflazione. L’Indice dei Prezzi alla Produzione è il 19.2% anno su anno, l’Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo è il 5.3%. La Produzione Industriale vale -0.2%, le Vendite al Dettaglio -2.9% e le Immatricolazioni delle Automobili registrano un -31.7%.

A ciò si aggiungano i grandiosi piani Grüne, costosissimi, e la stagflazione è in tavola.

Poi, uscirne, saranno lacrime amare.

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German Economy Heads for Recession After Shrinking Last Quarter. – Bloomberg.

German Economic system Heads for Recession After Shrinking Final Quarter

(Bloomberg) — Germany is headed for its second recession of the pandemic after the emergence of the coronavirus’s omicron pressure compounded drags on output from provide snarls and the quickest inflation in three a long time.

Europe’s largest financial system shrank by 0.5% to 1% within the remaining quarter of 2021, based on an estimate launched Friday by the Federal Statistics Workplace. With new Covid-19 instances at a document and the important thing manufacturing trade nonetheless struggling to supply elements, Dekabank, NordLB and ABN Amro all predict one other contraction this quarter.

For the entire of final 12 months, gross home product rose 2.7%  — matching estimates however nonetheless wanting its pre-crisis stage. Germany’s restoration trails France, Italy and Spain, that are anticipated to report 2021 expansions of 4.5% or extra later this month.

The dimensions of the year-end stoop got here as a shock after the Bundesbank final month signaled solely a slight decline was seemingly. However there’s little signal issues will enhance quickly. 

Germany reported greater than 90,000 day by day new infections on Friday, threatening workers shortages, manufacturing cuts and doubtlessly tighter restrictions. In the meantime, energy and heating prices have soared, whereas microchips and different inputs for factories stay scarce.

“I don’t have an entire lot of creativeness for optimistic impulses — provide bottlenecks are persisting, the surge in vitality costs is barely now reaching shoppers, and companies are weakened by the virus,” stated Andreas Scheuerle, an economist at Dekabank who sees output falling 0.8% between January and March.

The spring, nevertheless, ought to mark a resumption within the pandemic rebound. 

“Covid shouldn’t play a serious position anymore throughout the summer time — vitality costs ought to have been digested and supply-chain issues could have eased by then,” Scheuerle stated. “So within the second and third quarters, we must always see strong progress.”

The Bundesbank expects “vital momentum” from the spring onward, predicting full-year enlargement of 4.2%. Bloomberg Economics expects output to bounce again already within the first quarter — by at the very least 0.7% — as infections drop.

A big share of Germany’s struggles is rooted in its outsized reliance on manufacturing — a boon throughout earlier crises that changed into a legal responsibility as inputs turned tougher to search out. Carmakers are struggling essentially the most, with nearly a fifth of workers within the trade furloughed in December.

Volkswagen AG (OTC:) reported 2021 gross sales declined to the bottom in a decade and warned chip provide will stay tight within the first half.

“Transferring into 2022, the financial state of affairs doesn’t appear to have improved,” stated Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN Amro. “It received’t take a lot to slide into recession, although if fears of omicron wane throughout the first quarter, the decline in output might transform barely lower than on the finish of final 12 months.”

Extra stringent guidelines on vaccination could ease some stress on the financial system. Chancellor Olaf Scholz reaffirmed his assist on Wednesday for making pictures obligatory for all adults, whereas Volkswagen (DE:) stepped up its personal vaccination push.

However inflation is an impediment. costs in Europe jumped to the best stage in per week on Friday amid tensions over Ukraine, suggesting client vitality prices — already rising at an annual tempo of just below 20% — might enhance additional.

Whereas the federal government is contemplating assist for households struggling to pay surging payments and extra financial savings accrued throughout lockdowns could cushion a number of the blow, store house owners are frightened.

Practically 80% of non-food retailers surveyed by trade group HDE have been sad with end-of-year gross sales, which have been additionally damage by guidelines banning unvaccinated clients who hadn’t recovered from the virus.