Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Russia, Unione Europea

Blocco Europeo. Gelo in arrivo. Russia riduce le forniture. Gas +600% YoY.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-12-24.

2021-12-22__ EU Gas 001

Le quotazioni del natural gas sono differenti se fornite per i mercati internazionali oppure per quelli europei.

Gran quota delle differenze di prezzo è dovuta al fatto che nel blocco europeo la fornitura di questa materia prima è sottoposta ad una tassazione destinata a finanziare i piani Grüne.

Alla attuale crescita dei prezzi europei si deve aggiungere una meteorologia inclemente, foriera di gelo, la riduzione del gas che i russi immettono dei gasdotti e, da ultimo ma non certo per ultimo, il fatto che gli stati europei stanno chiudendo le centrali atomiche, proprio adesso.

La ciliegina sulla torta è costituita dalla bassa resa dell’eolico in situazioni di gelo.

Come risultato finale il TTF Gas registra un incremento del 668.58% anno su anno.

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«Europe is bracing for energy shortages as freezing weather sets in, boosting demand and sending prices surging with no relief in sight»

«Temperatures are forecast to fall below zero degrees Celsius in several European capitals this week, straining electricity grids already coping with low wind speeds and severe nuclear outages in France»

«To make matters worse, Russia is limiting natural gas flows through a major transit route to Germany Monday after capping supplies over the weekend»

«Energy prices have spiraled this year, with European gas surging some 600%»

«The region’s benchmark gas contract climbed as much as 8.8% Monday, while German year-ahead power, a benchmark in Europe, rose as much as 3.1% to a new record of 250 euros ($282) a megawatt-hour»

«The French contract jumped as much as 9% to a an all-time high»

«In France, day-ahead power rallied to 442.88 euros per megawatt-hour»

«The German contract also soared to the highest on record. Carbon permits jumped 6.2% to 77.84 euros a ton»

«Rising prices have fueled inflation, a headache for policy makers already contending with the spread of the omicron virus variant just before the holiday season»

«Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine could also make things worse, with a potential invasion likely to send prices even higher»

«Europe could experience rolling blackouts in case of a cold winter»

«That was before Electricite de France SA said it was halting reactors accounting for 10% of the nation’s nuclear capacity, leaving the region at the mercy of the weather at the height of winter in January and February»

«The futures pared some of the gains after Gazprom PJSC booked about 21% of the Yamal-Europe pipeline to Germany for January at a month-ahead capacity auction Monday»

«→→ With nuclear outages biting, electricity producers will have to use more gas to keep the lights on ←←»

«Russia plans for gas flows into Germany via the key Yamal-Europe pipeline to remain capped, potentially forcing Europe to rely on its already depleted inventories»

«Only 4% of capacity was allocated for Monday to send gas through Germany’s Mallnow station»

«Meanwhile, wind power is expected to stay low in Germany»

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Blocco Europeo. Prezzi alla produzione, PPI, +21.9% anno su anno. Europa kaputt. – Eurostat.

Germania si oppone alla Francia. Il nucleare non sarebbe Grüne.

Germania. Oct21. Manifatturiero. Dipendenti -0.5%, ore lavorate -2.9% anno su anno.

Germania. Wholesales Prices +16.6% rispetto al novembre 2020. – Destatis.

Germania. Prezzi alimentari +16.3% su novembre 2020. Ecco la Fame. – Destatis.

Germania.2021Q3. Il 56.9% delle energia elettrica deriva bruciando carbone importato.

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A tutto questo sconfortante quadro, se ne aggiunga un fattore forse ancor più micidiale.

All’atto di stabilire i prezzi di vendita, il venditore deve calcolare quanto gli costerà ricomprare ai nuovi prezzi il materiale venduto. Ma in un regime inflattivo al 21.9%, i costi di ricarico salgono in eguale misura, maggiorata di un margine di sicurezza previsionale.

In altri termini, il fornitore deve far pagare in anticipo la inflazione futura.

Questo è un espetto deleterio del processo inflattivo, che fa aumentare sia i prezzi alla produzione sia quelli al consumo, in una spirale senza fine.

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European Energy Prices Soar as a Deep Freeze Arrives.

– Power prices surge from France to Germany after EDF’s outages

– Gas bookings show Russian flows may remain capped in January

* * *

Europe is bracing for energy shortages as freezing weather sets in, boosting demand and sending prices surging with no relief in sight.

Temperatures are forecast to fall below zero degrees Celsius in several European capitals this week, straining electricity grids already coping with low wind speeds and severe nuclear outages in France. To make matters worse, Russia is limiting natural gas flows through a major transit route to Germany Monday after capping supplies over the weekend. The route is set to be only partially used in January.

Energy prices have spiraled this year, with European gas surging some 600%. The region’s benchmark gas contract climbed as much as 8.8% Monday, while German year-ahead power, a benchmark in Europe, rose as much as 3.1% to a new record of 250 euros ($282) a megawatt-hour. The French contract jumped as much as 9% to a an all-time high.

Short-term electricity also jumped, along with the cost of using dirtier energy sources in Europe. In France, day-ahead power rallied to 442.88 euros per megawatt-hour, the highest since 2009, in an auction Monday. The German contract also soared to the highest on record. Carbon permits jumped 6.2% to 77.84 euros a ton.

Rising prices have fueled inflation, a headache for policy makers already contending with the spread of the omicron virus variant just before the holiday season. Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine could also make things worse, with a potential invasion likely to send prices even higher. 

Jeremy Weir, chief executive officer of commodities trader Trafigura Group, last month warned that Europe could experience rolling blackouts in case of a cold winter. That was before Electricite de France SA said it was halting reactors accounting for 10% of the nation’s nuclear capacity, leaving the region at the mercy of the weather at the height of winter in January and February.

Benchmark Dutch gas prices jumped to almost 149 euros a megawatt-hour, the highest for a most-active contract since Oct. 6. The futures pared some of the gains after Gazprom PJSC booked about 21% of the Yamal-Europe pipeline to Germany for January at a month-ahead capacity auction Monday. Though limited, it’s a change from the less predictable daily auctions the exporter opted to use for December. 

The auction results “will not ease the risk of very tight supplies — given limited bookings for now,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. “But with a market clutching straws every little helps.”

With nuclear outages biting, electricity producers will have to use more gas to keep the lights on. Russia plans for gas flows into Germany via the key Yamal-Europe pipeline to remain capped, potentially forcing Europe to rely on its already depleted inventories. Storage sites are only 60% filled, a record-low for this time of year.

Only 4% of capacity was allocated for Monday to send gas through Germany’s Mallnow station, where the pipeline crossing Belarus and Poland terminates. That compares with about 35% of available space that Russia has booked for most days this month. 

There’s no relief to market tightness in sight as temperatures are expected to remain below normal levels in the U.K., Denmark and northern Germany next week. While traders expect liquefied natural gas may help to some extent, due to lower demand in Asia, cargo diversions will take time and increased arrivals at European ports are unlikely to come before January.

Meanwhile, wind power is expected to stay low in Germany until Dec. 23. In France and Britain, generation is forecast to dip on Tuesday, causing further supply issues.