Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Stati Uniti

US. Nov21. Nonfarm Payrolls crollato a 210k. Ecco una altra débâcle di Joe Biden.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-12-04.

2021-12-04__ Nonfarm Payrolls 001

L’indice Nonfarm Payrolls (salariati del settore non agricolo) misura la variazione nel numero di salariati nel corso dell’ultimo mese per tutte le attività non agricole. Il totale dei salariati del settore non agricolo rappresenta circa l’80% dei lavoratori che producono il Prodotto Interno Lordo negli Stati Uniti.

Si tratta del dato singolo più importante contenuto nel rapporto sull’occupazione.

Questo dato è particolarmente robusto, essendo enumerativo: basta solo contare il numero dei salariati del settore non agricolo. Non è frutto di calcoli o di modelli.

Quei negromanti falliti degli economisti occidentali avevano previsto un valore di 550k, sempre miserrimo, ma sbagliato grossolanamente.

I media liberal si contorcono le budella per cercare capri espiatori sempre più inverosimili.

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«Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 210,000 in November»

«The unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.2 percent in November»

«The number of unemployed persons fell by 542,000 to 6.9 million»

«Both measures are down considerably from their highs at the end of the February-April 2020 recession. However, they remain above their levels prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic»

«Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (4.0 percent), adult women (4.0 percent), Whites (3.7 percent), Blacks (6.7 percent), and Hispanics (5.2 percent) declined in November»

«The jobless rates for teenagers (11.2 percent)»

«Among the unemployed, the number of permanent job losers declined by 205,000 to 1.9 million in November but is 623,000 higher than in February 2020»

«The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 2.2 million, changed little in November but is 1.1 million higher than in February 2020»

* * *

«Job growth disappoints in November, with a gain of just 210,000, despite high hopes»

«The number was well below Wall Street expectations of 573,000»

«The U.S. economy created far fewer jobs than expected in November, in a sign that hiring started to slow even ahead of the new Covid threat»

«The U.S. suffered its shortest but steepest recession in the early days of the Covid-19 breakout»

«Powell said he sees the unwinding to conclude “a few months” sooner than expected, a move that would open the possibility for interest rate hikes»

«The disappointing 210,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November suggests the labor market recovery was faltering even before the potential impact of the new Omicron variant»

«San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly backed up Powell’s comments in remarks Thursday, saying that inflation that is stronger and more durable than expected is creating the need to rethink policy»

«These considerations suggest, on balance, that the Federal Open Market Committee should remove monetary policy accommodation»

* * * * * * *

La Harris-Biden Administration per perseguire la sua ideologia liberal ha cacciato a forza gli Stati Uniti in una stagflazione dalla quale sarà sempre più difficile venirne a capo.

Chiariamo immediatamente che il Covid-19, attuale capro espiatorio, non c’entra nulla.

«hiring started to slow even ahead of the new Covid threat»

«inflation is stronger and more durable than expected is creating the need to rethink policy»

Il vero collo di bottiglia sono Joe Biden ed i liberal democratici: la stagflazione proseguirà ingigantendosi fino a tanto che questi resteranno al potere.

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US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Employment Situation — November 2021

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 210,000 in November, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, transportation and warehousing, construction, and manufacturing. Employment in retail trade declined over the month.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note.

                         Household Survey Data.

The unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.2 percent in November. The number of unemployed persons fell by 542,000 to 6.9 million. Both measures are down considerably from their highs at the end of the February-April 2020 recession. However, they remain above their levels prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic (3.5 percent and 5.7 million, respectively, in February 2020). (See table A-1. See the box note at the end of this news release for more information about how the household survey and its measures were affected by the coronavirus pandemic.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (4.0 percent), adult women (4.0 percent), Whites (3.7 percent), Blacks (6.7 percent), and Hispanics (5.2 percent) declined in November. The jobless rates for teenagers (11.2 percent) and Asians (3.8 percent) showed little change over the month. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

Among the unemployed, the number of permanent job losers declined by 205,000 to 1.9 million in November but is 623,000 higher than in February 2020. The number of persons on temporary layoff decreased by 255,000 to 801,000 in November. This measure is down from the high of 18.0 million in April 2020 and has nearly returned to its February 2020 level of 750,000. (See table A-11.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 2.2 million, changed little in November but is 1.1 million higher than in February 2020. The long-term unemployed accounted for 32.1 percent of the total unemployed in November. (See table A-12.)

The labor force participation rate edged up to 61.8 percent in November. The participation rate is 1.5 percentage points lower than in February 2020. The employment-population ratio increased by 0.4 percentage point to 59.2 percent in November. This measure is up from its low of 51.3 percent in April 2020 but remains below the figure of 61.1 percent in February 2020. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 million, changed little in November. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. This figure was about the same as in February 2020. (See table A-8.)

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Job growth disappoints in November, with a gain of just 210,000, despite high hopes.

– Nonfarm payrolls increased by 210,000 in November, following a gain of 546,000 the previous month.

– The number was well below Wall Street expectations of 573,000.

– Despite the big hiring miss, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, a 0.4% percentage point decline that came even with rising labor force participation.

– Professional and business services and transportation and warehousing led gains, while hiring in leisure and hospitality was sluggish and retail lost jobs despite the traditional holiday hiring season.

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The U.S. economy created far fewer jobs than expected in November, in a sign that hiring started to slow even ahead of the new Covid threat, the Labor Department reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 210,000 for the month, though the unemployment rate fell sharply to 4.2% from 4.6%, even though the labor force participation rate increased for the month to 61.8%, its highest level since March 2020.

The Dow Jones estimate was for 573,000 new jobs and a jobless level of 4.5% for an economy beset by a chronic labor shortage.

A more encompassing measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons dropped even more, tumbling to 7.8% from 8.3%. The survey of households painted a more optimistic jobs picture, indicating an employment gain of 594,000 for the month.

“This report is a tale of two surveys,” said Nick Bunker, economic research director at jobs placement site Indeed. “The household survey shows accelerating employment gains, workers returning to the labor force, and low levels of involuntary part-time work. The payroll survey shows a significant deceleration in job growth, particularly in COVID-affected sectors.”

“The underlying momentum of the labor market is still strong, but this month shows more uncertainty than expected,” he added.

Leisure and hospitality, which includes bars, restaurants, hotels and similar businesses, saw a gain of just 23,000 after being a leading job creator for much of the recovery. Though the sector has recovered nearly 7 million of the jobs lost at the depths of the pandemic, it remains about 1.3 million below its February 2020 level, with an unemployment rate stuck at 7.5%.

Despite the disappointment, markets largely shrugged off the numbers, with stocks pointing to a higher open on Wall Street.

Initial jobs tallies this year have seen substantial revisions, with months showing low counts initially often bumped higher. The October and September estimates were bumped up a combined 82,000 in the report released Friday.

Sectors showing the biggest gains in November included professional and business services (90,000), transportation and warehousing (50,000) and construction (31,000). Even with the holiday shopping season approaching, retail saw a decline of 20,000. Government added 10,000 jobs to the total.

Worker wages climbed for the month, rising 0.26% in November and 4.8% from a year ago. Both numbers were slightly below estimates.

                         Fed ready to change policy.

Policymakers have been watching the employment figures closely to gauge how close the economy is to a full recovery from the depths of the pandemic. The U.S. suffered its shortest but steepest recession in the early days of the Covid-19 breakout and has been on a progressive but volatile path since.

Federal Reserve officials put a new wrinkle into the picture this week when they indicated that the measures they instituted to support growth could be coming to an end sooner than expected.

In congressional testimony earlier in the week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said he expects the central bank’s policy committee to discuss at its meeting this month stepping up the level at which it is tapering its monthly bond purchases. Powell said he sees the unwinding to conclude “a few months” sooner than expected, a move that would open the possibility for interest rate hikes.

“The disappointing 210,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November suggests the labor market recovery was faltering even before the potential impact of the new Omicron variant, possibly as a result of the rising infection rates in the Northeast and Midwest,” wrote Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics. “Nevertheless, the Fed will still push ahead with its plans to accelerate the pace of its QE taper at this month’s FOMC meeting.”

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly backed up Powell’s comments in remarks Thursday, saying that inflation that is stronger and more durable than expected is creating the need to rethink policy. She said the Fed should “at least, you know, think about raising the interest rate” and accelerating the taper pace.

Daly also hinted that the summary of economic projections to be released this month, in which officials show their expectations for the future, likely will point to interest rate hikes pulled forward into 2022. Markets currently expect the Fed to enact at least two quarter-percentage-point increases next year.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard added to the chorus on Friday, saying that the economy as measured by GDP has recovered fully and can operate with less policy stimulus, particularly considering the pace at which inflation is running.

“These considerations suggest, on balance, that the Federal Open Market Committee should remove monetary policy accommodation,” Bullard said.

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US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Employment Situation — November 2021

Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted

Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted

Employment Situation Frequently Asked Questions

Employment Situation Technical Note

Table A-1. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age

Table A-2. Employment status of the civilian population by race, sex, and age

Table A-3. Employment status of the Hispanic or Latino population by sex and age

Table A-4. Employment status of the civilian population 25 years and over by educational attainment

Table A-5. Employment status of the civilian population 18 years and over by veteran status, period of service, and sex, not seasonally adjusted

Table A-6. Employment status of the civilian population by sex, age, and disability status, not seasonally adjusted

Table A-7. Employment status of the civilian population by nativity and sex, not seasonally adjusted

Table A-8. Employed persons by class of worker and part-time status

Table A-9. Selected employment indicators

Table A-10. Selected unemployment indicators, seasonally adjusted

Table A-11. Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment

Table A-12. Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment

Table A-13. Employed and unemployed persons by occupation, not seasonally adjusted

Table A-14. Unemployed persons by industry and class of worker, not seasonally adjusted

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

Table A-16. Persons not in the labor force and multiple jobholders by sex, not seasonally adjusted

Table B-1. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector and selected industry detail

Table B-2. Average weekly hours and overtime of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted

Table B-3. Average hourly and weekly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted

Table B-4. Indexes of aggregate weekly hours and payrolls for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted

Table B-5. Employment of women on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted

Table B-6. Employment of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)

Table B-7. Average weekly hours and overtime of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)

Table B-8. Average hourly and weekly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)

Table B-9. Indexes of aggregate weekly hours and payrolls for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls by industry sector, seasonally adjusted(1)