Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Commercio, Devoluzione socialismo

UNCTAD. Inefficienza dei porti e della catena approvvigionamenti terranno alti i costi al consumo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-25.

2021-11-25__ Unctad 001

La Conferenza delle Nazioni Unite sul Commercio e lo Sviluppo è il principale organo sussidiario permanente dell’Organizzazione delle Nazioni Unite operante nei settori del commercio, sviluppo, finanza, tecnologia, imprenditoria e sviluppo sostenibile.

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Lo United Nations Conference on Trade and Development ha rilasciato il Report High freight rates cast a shadow over economic recovery.

«High freight rates cast a shadow over economic recovery»

«UNCTAD warns that global consumer prices will rise significantly in the year ahead until shipping supply chain disruptions are unblocked and port constraints and terminal inefficiencies are tackled»

«The recovery of the global economy is threatened by high freight rates, which are likely to continue in the coming months»

«the current surge in container freight rates, if sustained, could increase global import price levels by 11% and consumer price levels by 1.5% between now and 2023»

«The current surge in freight rates will have a profound impact on trade and undermine socioeconomic recovery, especially in developing countries, until maritime shipping operations return to normal»

«Demand for goods surged in the second half of 2020 and into 2021, as consumers spent their money on goods rather than services»

«This large swing in containerized trade flows was met with supply-side capacity constraints, including container ship carrying capacity, container shortages, labour shortages, continued on and off COVID-19 restrictions across port regions and congestion at ports»

«For example, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) spot rate on the Shanghai-Europe route was less than $1,000 per TEU in June 2020, jumped to about $4,000 per TEU by the end of 2020, and rose to $7,395 by the end of July 2021»

«still encountered difficulties to ensure their containers were moved promptly»

«The impact of the high freight charges will be greater in small island developing states (SIDS), which could see import prices increase by 24% and consumer prices by 7.5%. In least developed countries (LDCs), consumer price levels could increase by 2.2%»

«Low-value-added items produced in smaller economies, in particular, could face serious erosion of their comparative advantages»

«a surge in container freight rates will add to production costs, which can raise consumer prices and slow national economies, particularly in SIDS and LDCs, where consumption and production highly depend on trade»

«The high rates will also impact on low-value-added items such as furniture, textiles, clothing and leather products, whose production is often fragmented across low-wage economies well away from major consumer markets …. predicts consumer price increases of 10.2% on these»

«The analysis further predicts a 9.4% increase in rubber and plastic products, a 7.5% increase for pharmaceutical products and electrical equipment, 6.9% for motor vehicles and 6.4% for machinery and equipment»

«A 10% increase in container freight rates, together with supply chain disruptions, is expected to decrease industrial production in the United States and the euro area by more than 1%»

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Il problema affrontato è molto complesso è si presterebbe a numerose considerazioni. Ne esporremo solo alcune, non necessariamente e più importanti.

In primo luogo, tutto il mondo è entrato in una fase di stagflazione. Languono le produzioni e l’inflazione erode il potere di acquisto. Sussistono vistose discrepanze locoregionali. Questa situazione ostacola grandemente anche i paesi che di per sé stessi non avrebbero avuto grossolani problemi. Inoltre, l’inflazione è fortemente contagiosa.

In secondo luogo, oscillazioni così veloci e di ampio valore ostacolano severamente le possibilità di pianificare produzione e commercializzazione. Tutti i pregressi canoni hanno perso valore. Diventa un vivere alla giornata, fatto questo incompatibile con un sano sistema economico.

In terzo luogo, le materie prime hanno evidenziato considerevoli incrementi dei prezzi, mettendo fuori mercato un gran numero di sistemi produttivi. La crisi dei trasporti amplifica i costi ed ostacola il timing dei rifornimenti.

In quarto luogo, i governi nazionali sembrerebbero essere del tutto impotenti a comprendere e governare queste situazioni.

In quinto luogo, le continue tensioni politiche e militari non concorrono sicuramente a rasserenare gli animi. Chiamando le cose con il loro nome, il rischio di un conflitto atomico è reale.

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In estrema sintesi, nessuno si illuda. Questa situazione continuerà peggiorando fino al collasso. Il problema è sicuramente economico, ma principalmente è politico

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High freight rates cast a shadow over economic recovery

UNCTAD warns that global consumer prices will rise significantly in the year ahead until shipping supply chain disruptions are unblocked and port constraints and terminal inefficiencies are tackled.

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Geneva, Switzerland, 18 November 2021

The recovery of the global economy is threatened by high freight rates, which are likely to continue in the coming months, according to UNCTAD’s Review of Maritime Transport 2021 published on 18 November.

UNCTAD’s analysis shows that the current surge in container freight rates, if sustained, could increase global import price levels by 11% and consumer price levels by 1.5% between now and 2023.

“The current surge in freight rates will have a profound impact on trade and undermine socioeconomic recovery, especially in developing countries, until maritime shipping operations return to normal,” said UNCTAD Secretary General Rebeca Grynspan.

“Returning to normal would entail investing in new solutions, including infrastructure, freight technology and digitalization, and trade facilitation measures,” she said.

                         What triggered the spike in freight rates and costs

Demand for goods surged in the second half of 2020 and into 2021, as consumers spent their money on goods rather than services during pandemic lockdowns and restrictions, according to the report. Working from home, online shopping and increased computers sales all placed unprecedented demand on supply chains.

This large swing in containerized trade flows was met with supply-side capacity constraints, including container ship carrying capacity, container shortages, labour shortages, continued on and off COVID-19 restrictions across port regions and congestion at ports.

This mismatch between surging demand and de facto reduced supply capacity then led to record container freight rates on practically all container trade routes.

For example, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) spot rate on the Shanghai-Europe route was less than $1,000 per TEU in June 2020, jumped to about $4,000 per TEU by the end of 2020, and rose to $7,395 by the end of July 2021. On top of this, cargo owners faced delays, surcharges and other costs, and still encountered difficulties to ensure their containers were moved promptly.

                         Everyone is affected, but not equally

The impact of the high freight charges will be greater in small island developing states (SIDS), which could see import prices increase by 24% and consumer prices by 7.5%. In least developed countries (LDCs), consumer price levels could increase by 2.2%.

Supply chains will be affected by higher maritime trade costs. Low-value-added items produced in smaller economies, in particular, could face serious erosion of their comparative advantages.

In addition, concerns abound that the sustained higher shipping costs will not only weigh on exports and imports but could also undermine a recovery in global manufacturing.

The report says sustained high rates are already affecting global supply chains, noting that Europe, for example, has been facing shortages of consumer goods imported from Asia such as home furnishings, bicycles, sports goods and toys.

According to the report, a surge in container freight rates will add to production costs, which can raise consumer prices and slow national economies, particularly in SIDS and LDCs, where consumption and production highly depend on trade.

The high rates will also impact on low-value-added items such as furniture, textiles, clothing and leather products, whose production is often fragmented across low-wage economies well away from major consumer markets; the UNCTAD predicts consumer price increases of 10.2% on these.

The analysis further predicts a 9.4% increase in rubber and plastic products, a 7.5% increase for pharmaceutical products and electrical equipment, 6.9% for motor vehicles and 6.4% for machinery and equipment.

The impact of the high freight rates will not be evenly spread, even within Europe, and will be generally greater in smaller economies.

It is suggested that prices would rise by 3.7% in Estonia and 3.9% in Lithuania, compared with 1.2% in the United States and 1.4% in China. This differential also reflects a greater “import openness”, the ratio of imports to GDP, which is typically higher in smaller economies.

Manufacturers in the United States rely mainly on industrial supplies from China and other East Asian economies, so continued cost pressures, disruption and delays in containerized shipping will hinder production, according to the report.

A 10% increase in container freight rates, together with supply chain disruptions, is expected to decrease industrial production in the United States and the euro area by more than 1%, while in China production is expected to decrease by 0.2%.

UNCTAD emphasizes that transport costs are also influenced by structural factors, including port infrastructure quality, the trade facilitation environment and shipping connectivity, and there is potential for significant improvements.

UNCTAD urges countries to consider a portfolio of measures that span hard and soft infrastructure and services. Improving the quality of port infrastructure would reduce world average maritime transport costs by 4.1%, while costs would be reduced by 3.7% by better trade facilitation measures and by 4.4% by improved liner shipping connectivity.

It calls on governments to monitor markets to ensure a fair, transparent and competitive commercial environment and recommends more data sharing and stronger collaboration between stakeholders in the maritime supply chain.

The report urges continued monitoring and analysis of trends to find ways of cutting costs, enhancing efficiency and smoothing delivery of maritime trade. It also emphasizes the need for smaller economies to diversify by graduating to higher-value-added products to be more resilient to external shocks.

In the medium to longer term, the maritime supply capacity will also be affected by the transition of the industry towards zero-carbon shipping. To ensure that the necessary investment in ships, ports and the provision of new fuels is not delayed, it will be important for investors to count on a predictable global regulatory framework.

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Surging shipping costs will drive up prices for some consumer products by 10%, new UN report finds.

– The rate for a single shipping container has skyrocketed over the last 18 months as the coronavirus pandemic disrupted supply chains and trade channels.

– That surge in container rates could send consumer prices 1.5% higher over the next year, according to a report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

– The impact on consumer prices will vary by country and product, the report said.

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Beijing — The global surge in container shipping rates could send consumer prices 1.5% higher over the next year, according to a report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

The rate for a single shipping container has skyrocketed over the last 18 months as the coronavirus pandemic disrupted supply chains and trade channels. Routes have seen costs rise by seven times, if not more.

“UNCTAD’s analysis shows that the current surge in container freight rates, if sustained, could increase global import price levels by 11% and consumer price levels by 1.5% between now and 2023,” the UN report said Thursday.

By country, the U.S. would see consumer prices rise by 1.2%, while China would see a 1.4% increase, the report said. The analysis found that smaller countries more dependent on imports would see consumer prices rise by a much higher 7.5%.

By product, electronics, furniture, and apparel would see the greatest price increases — of at least 10% globally — due to supply chain distribution, UNCTAD said, noting containers account for 17% of total seaborne trade volume.

Some companies have chosen to send smaller products by air as a result of the soaring cargo shipping costs, although air freight tends to be more expensive.

The container shipping cost surge would also drag down growth in major economies, the analysis said.

Industrial production, a major driver of growth, is set to fall by more than 1% in the U.S. and euro area, and drop by 0.2% in China, if container freight rates rise 10% and supply chains remain disrupted, the report said.

As of late October, more than 600 container ships were stuck outside ports worldwide, twice the level at the start of the year, Swiss logistics giant Kuehne+Nagel told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.” The company projected late last month that the congestion would last until at least February.