Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio

Cina. Sofisticazione dell’export promette una lunga crescita duratura.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-18.

2021-08-08__ Cina Export 001

Il Growth Lab della Harvard University segue con molta attenzione la Cina.

Productivity Gap and Inward FDI Spillovers: Theory and Evidence from China

«In recent decades there has been ongoing research on how far the spillover effect of FDI contributes to the economic growth of host countries. Focusing on China, the world’s largest emerging economy, some maintain that the dramatic growth and the improved competitiveness of the domestic industrial capability of the Chinese economy since the opening-up policy have been attributable to the massive scale of inward FDI (e.g. Zhang, 2001; Yao, 2006; Lin et al., 2013; Chen and Wu, 2017). …. Indeed, as argued by Javorcik (2004), FDI can exert a positive spillover effect on the local industrial enterprises if and only if the multinational firms form joint ventures with domestic ones and are not fully owned foreign investments. …. What sets the present paper apart from these works is that we provide a new angle in terms of assessing the degree to which FDI could improve the productivity of local industrial enterprises through the spillover effect. We demonstrate, with a theoretical model, that, given an optimal joint-venture policy from foreign firms, the impact of the spillover effect of inward FDI is contingent upon the productivity gap between the domestic firms and foreign ones.»

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«The sophistication of exports from a given country is commonly determined on the basis of technological or knowledge intensity bounded in its goods and services. …. One of the most widely used such classifications is the one provided by OECD (2011b) where goods are classified into four categories based on R&D intensity and R&D embodied in intermediate and investment goods …. goods differ by their levels of productivity. Once the productivity level of a particular good is determined the sophistication of export baskets of individual countries can be revealed on the basis of the proportion of particular goods in the overall structure of their exports»

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«China is exporting more sophisticated products despite trade war»

«The technical level of China’s exports rose through a trade war with the US, according to a new ranking that predicts the Chinese economy will grow faster than India’s over the next decade»

«China ranks 16th globally in terms of the complexity of its exports in 2019, moving three places ahead of countries including Ireland since the start of the trade war in 2018»

«The index measures the variety and technical sophistication of the goods exported by a country as well as the volume of exports»

«China was able to raise its ranking despite US tariffs by exporting to other regions»

«Data covering the coronavirus pandemic is not yet available»

«There are indications that China will continue to gain market share in the regions as it was able to continue production»

«China’s export performance is in stark contrast to its roughly similarly populous but less affluent neighbor India, which ranked 43rd in 2019»

«China will overtake India in the next 10 years»

«→→ Rather …. the difference between a country’s current level of export sophistication and GDP per capita is the strongest predictor of a country’s future economic expansion ←←»

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Stando a queste ricerche, peraltro ben corroborate dai macrodati, la Cina starebbe andando incontro ad un lungo periodo di crescita economica.

Non solo.

Le sanzioni americane sarebbero del tutto ininfluenti sulla crescita cinese.

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China Is Exporting More Sophisticated Products Despite Trade War

The technical level of China’s exports rose through a trade war with the US, according to a new ranking that predicts the Chinese economy will grow faster than India’s over the next decade.

China ranks 16th globally in terms of the complexity of its exports in 2019, moving three places ahead of countries including Ireland since the start of the trade war in 2018, according to a new study by Harvard University’s Growth Lab.

The index measures the variety and technical sophistication of the goods exported by a country as well as the volume of exports. The US ranks 11th between the world’s two largest economies, with a gap of more than half in the past decade.

Tim Cheston, senior research manager at Growth Lab, said the data showed China was able to raise its ranking despite US tariffs by exporting to other regions.

“It was an efficient move by China to diversify its export destinations for electronics to Europe and elsewhere,” he said.

Data covering the coronavirus pandemic is not yet available, but it may have raised the country’s ranking further due to a boom in China’s exports. The 2019 data was updated last week.

“There are indications that China will continue to gain market share in the regions as it was able to continue production,” Cheston said.

A high ranking does not guarantee fast economic growth: Japan has topped the rankings for 19 years in a row, while registering slow growth. Rather, according to Growth Lab, the difference between a country’s current level of export sophistication and GDP per capita is the strongest predictor of a country’s future economic expansion.

China’s export performance is in stark contrast to its roughly similarly populous but less affluent neighbor India, which ranked 43rd in 2019 despite the government’s “Make in India” push.

“In the last few years we have seen India fall, when it comes to export growth it usually stabilizes,” Cheston said. This shows that “China will overtake India in the next 10 years” when it comes to economic growth, he said.

As China has moved up from the more developed countries in the ranking, it is facing more challenges in maintaining its progress.

Chinese exports “are now at the stage of filling almost all known segments of global products,” Chastain said. “China must now move technical knowledge from around the world into real innovation, which will be a great challenge.”