Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Usa. Fed. Mr Jerome Powell avrebbe preso un granchio, ‘prices …. keep rocketing skyward’.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-22.

Pollo allo Spiedo 001

La Harris-Biden Administration ha un bisogno assoluto che la Fed prosegua a mantenere i tassi quasi a zero e che continui ad iniettare denaro nel sistema. Deve mantenere i suoi verosimili voti elargendo assistenza e facendo arricchire i sodali.

Ma il progressivo innalzarsi del processo inflattivo richiederebbe tutto tranne che la dilazione del tapering.

La Harris-Biden Administration è in un vicolo cieco: in una strada senza ritorno.

Adesso, qualsiasi cosa faccia, ivi compreso il far nulla, genererà solo ulteriori danni.

*

«Jerome Powell keeps insisting that inflation is transitory, but the data are all going the other way»

«The head of the Federal Reserve continues to insist that the rise in prices is “transitory” and doesn’t require any rethink of the central bank’s ultra-stimulative policies»

«Mohamed A. El-Erian worries about the increasing probability of a monetary policy mistake that could derail a potentially strong and transformational U.S. economic recovery»

«There’s also an increased likelihood of a market accident»

«Powell’s other conviction is that the Fed has the policy tools to react quickly and effectively if need be, without causing economic and financial disruptions»

«But a growing number of economists question this»

«If the central bank doesn’t start taking its foot off the stimulus accelerator now, it may have to abruptly slam on the policy brakes down the road»

«Traders are betting that Powell will chicken out»

«the Fed has no easy options»

«If it scales back on mortgage-bond purchases, that could threaten market stability; if it doesn’t, home prices could keep rocketing skyward»

* * * * * * *

Il buon Hegel aveva detto con fare sicuro che se i dati sperimentali contraddicessero la teoria, ebbene, tanto peggio per i dati.

Mr Jerome Powell sembrerebbe comportarsi in piena sintonia con Hegel.

*


It’s Time for the Fed to Ease Up on Stimulus

Jerome Powell keeps insisting that inflation is transitory, but the data are all going the other way.

The head of the Federal Reserve continues to insist that the rise in prices is “transitory” and doesn’t require any rethink of the central bank’s ultra-stimulative policies. But as the data keep pointing the other way, Mohamed A. El-Erian worries about the increasing probability of a monetary policy mistake that could derail a potentially strong and transformational U.S. economic recovery. There’s also an increased likelihood of a market accident.

Powell’s other conviction is that the Fed has the policy tools to react quickly and effectively if need be, without causing economic and financial disruptions. But a growing number of economists question this. If the central bank doesn’t start taking its foot off the stimulus accelerator now, it may have to abruptly slam on the policy brakes down the road. The risk is that the Fed could inadvertently engineer a recession. 

The bond market, on the other hand, seems confident that the central bank, for all of Powell’s demurrals, will tighten monetary policy soon. As  John Authers points out, long-term yields are falling instead of rising with the inflation data. Traders are betting that Powell will chicken out.

Meanwhile, Lisa Abramowicz examines Powell’s dilemma on real estate prices, and she concludes that the Fed has no easy options. If it scales back on mortgage-bond purchases, that could threaten market stability; if it doesn’t, home prices could keep rocketing skyward.