Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Unione Europea

De Nederlandsche Bank. Presidente Knot. ECB tapering entro il marzo2022.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-09.

Olanda Banca Centrale 001

«Klaas H.W. Knot has been President of De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) since July 2011 and was reappointed for a second seven-year term in July 2018. He became Vice Chair of the FSB in December 2018 and is also Chair of the Standing Committee on the Assessment of Vulnerabilities. In this capacity as DNB President he is a member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank, Governor of the International Monetary Fund, and member of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements and of the European Systemic Risk Board.

In 1991, Mr Knot graduated with honours in economics at the University of Groningen. In 1995, he obtained his PhD in economics. He is honorary Professor of Economics of Central Banking at the University of Groningen and of Monetary Stability at the University of Amsterdam.

Prior to becoming President of the DNB, Mr Knot was Deputy Treasurer-General and Director of Financial Markets at the Dutch Ministry of Finance. He also held positions at DNB, the Pension and Insurance Authority, and the International Monetary Fund» [De Nederlandsche Bank]

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«ECB’s Knot warns central bank could be underestimating inflation»

«Dutch central banker says 1970s are a cautionary»

«Pandemic bond-buying program should end “around March 2022”»

«European Central Bank policy maker Klaas Knot warned that policy makers may be underestimating the potential for accelerating inflation to become entrenched, and that emergency monetary stimulus should end around March 2022»

«While the ECB predicts that current elevated inflation rates are temporary — driven by rebounding energy prices and supply shortages as the economy reopens — the Dutch central bank governor said the outcome may be different»

«We should not overestimate our capacity to determine in advance what is temporary inflation and what is not …. There are other scenarios conceivable than our base case of persistently low inflation. Inflation is not dead.»

«The ECB is expected to debate the future of its 1.85 trillion-euro ($2.2 trillion) pandemic bond-buying program after the summer, with some on the 25-member Governing Council worried that monetary support will be pared back too soon»

«But as soon as the fire is under control, the fire brigade has to return to the barracks. That should be the case around March 2022»

«→→ The Dutch governor, who also said he might not have backed negative interest rates in 2014 if he’d known how long they would last ←←»

«He noted rising house prices as one sign of perceived price pressures»

«We as central bankers complain that inflation is too low, but when you talk to people in the country, they say that everything has become so terribly expensive»

«what has become so expensive? …. my housing costs»

«And then we say, sorry, but that’s not in our index. Of course that can’t be true»

* * * * * * *

Nessuno oserebbe mettere in dubbio le capacità di Mr Knot: ha dimostrato sul campo si essere persona preparata e capace.

Ma soprattutto è persona che esprime in modo garbatamente pacato anche un ironico buon senso.

Se la prima parte dell’intervento è pronunciata nel classico stile da banchiere centrale, le ultime tre frasi sono modulate in modo solo apparentemente conviviale: dicono quello che un banchiere centrale non avrebbe mai potuto dire ufficialmente.

L’inflazione c’è, è alta, ma il CPI è basso perché misurato su di un paniere grottesco: chi mai usa ancora le pietre focaie, gli acciarini ed i foconi? Per non parlare poi dei ferri di cavallo. Non aver contemplato il costo delle abitazioni non è una dimenticanza, bensì una scelta deliberata per ottenere un indice di inflazione artificialmente e deliberatamente basso.

Zona Euro – Indice dei prezzi alla produzione (Annuale) +9.6%.

Lodiamo la morigeratezza di Mr Klaas Knot.

*


ECB’s Knot Warns Central Bank Could Be Underestimating Inflation

– Dutch central banker says 1970s are a cautionary tale

– Pandemic bond-buying program should end “around March 2022”

*

European Central Bank policy maker Klaas Knot warned that policy makers may be underestimating the potential for accelerating inflation to become entrenched, and that emergency monetary stimulus should end around March 2022.

While the ECB predicts that current elevated inflation rates are temporary — driven by rebounding energy prices and supply shortages as the economy reopens — the Dutch central bank governor said the outcome may be different.

“We should not overestimate our capacity to determine in advance what is temporary inflation and what is not,” he said in an interview with Dutch newspaper NRC. “There are other scenarios conceivable than our base case of persistently low inflation. Inflation is not dead.”

The ECB is expected to debate the future of its 1.85 trillion-euro ($2.2 trillion) pandemic bond-buying program after the summer, with some on the 25-member Governing Council worried that monetary support will be pared back too soon.

Knot said he has doubts about the central bank’s “activist” use of its balance sheet as a policy tool, and that he regularly expresses that sentiment in policy meetings.

”It is good that we acted quickly in this crisis,” he said. “But as soon as the fire is under control, the fire brigade has to return to the barracks. That should be the case around March 2022.”

The Dutch governor, who also said he might not have backed negative interest rates in 2014 if he’d known how long they would last, said his views on inflation were influenced by conversations with officials who experienced the 1970s. He is a member of the Group of 30, a gathering of mostly former central bankers and policy makers.

He noted rising house prices as one sign of perceived price pressures, and called for tighter lending standards in the Netherlands. Real estate was the most popular discussion when the Dutch central bank held a “listening event” with citizens and civil society groups as part of the ECB’s strategy review.

That review is studying how to better reflect the cost of home ownership in its measures of inflation, and Knot said he backs a change.

“We as central bankers complain that inflation is too low, but when you talk to people in the country, they say that everything has become so terribly expensive. And then you ask them: what has become so expensive? Then they say: my housing costs,” he said. “And then we say, sorry, but that’s not in our index. Of course that can’t be true.”

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