Giuseppe Sandro Mela.
Questa mattina le banche centrali di molti stati europei hanno rilasciato una salva di macrodati inerenti il taso di inflazione in Europa.
Sono ben poco confortanti, anche perché presentano delle incoerenze interne. La versione ufficiale è che l’inflazione sia un dato marginale nella eurozona. Conveniamo che il prezzo delle pietre focaie, degli acciarini, dei foconi, della biada e dei ventilabri sia rimasto invariato. In fondo, tutto soggiace al paniere scelto per acquisire il macrodato.
Ma, solo per citare la Francia,
«Prices for energy were up 10.9%, with prices for tobacco rising by 5.3% year-on-year»
Ci si domanda come un simile aumento dell’energia non si sia ripercosso sull’indice dei prezzi alla produzione e, quindi, su quello dei prezzi a consumo.
Inflation and unemployment figures were in focus in the early part of the European session this morning. Later today, prelim June inflation figures for the Eurozone will also draw interest, as sensitivity to inflation lingers.
In June, the annual rate of inflation ticked up from 1.4% to 1.5% based on prelim figures. This was in line with forecasts.
According to Insee.fr,
– Prices for energy were up 10.9%, with prices for tobacco rising by 5.3% year-on-year.
– Food prices were down by 0.3%, with prices for fresh food (-3.4%) weighing.
– Month-on-month, consumer prices increased by 0.2% after having risen by 0.3% in May.
In June, unemployment fell by 38k, following on from a 19k decline in May. Economists had forecast a more modest 20k fall. In spite of the larger than expected drop, the unemployment rate held steady at 5.9%.
Ahead of today’s stats, the EUR had risen to a pre-stat and current day high $1.19090 before falling to a pre-stat low $1.18960.
In response to the French inflation figures, the EUR rose to a post-stat high $1.19081 before falling to a current day low $1.18931.
The EUR found support, however, with unemployment change figures from Germany beating forecasts. With unemployment holding steady at 5.9%, the upside to the EUR is likely to be limited ahead of the Eurozone inflation figures.
Recovering from the current day low, the EUR rose to a post-stat high $1.19050 before easing back
At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.05% to $1.19022.