Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. 2021Q1. Pil -5.0% rispetto al 2019Q4. Consumi -9.1%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-26.

2021-05-26__ Germania Pil 001

In sintesi.

-1.8% on the previous quarter (price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted)

-3.4% on the same quarter a year earlier (price-adjusted)

-3.1% on the same quarter a year earlier (price- and calendar-adjusted)

– Compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, the quarter before the corona crisis began, GDP was 5.0% lower

– The largest decreases (-13.9%) were recorded for other services

– Household final consumption expenditure, which was down a price-adjusted 9.1% on the first quarter of 2020

– Household final consumption expenditure fell by 5.4% on the fourth quarter of 2020

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I macrodati tedeschi indicano uno stato di recessione e di una profonda crisi.

New orders in main construction industry in March 2021: -12.1% seasonally adjusted on the previous month.

Germania. Feb21. Import elettronica. Da Cina un terzo, da Asia oltre la metà. – Zvei.

Germania. Gen21 e Feb21. Export totale -4.5%, anno su anno. – Destatis.

Exports in February 2021: +0.9% on January 2021. Exports are 2.1% below the pre-crisis level of February 2020.

Germania. Febbraio 21. Produzione Industriale -6.4% anno su anno. – Destatis.

Germania. Febbraio. Vendite al Dettaglio -9.0% Feb21 su Feb20. – Destatis.

La crisi di leadership che mina il futuro della Germania.

Germania. Merkel. Après nous, le déluge. – Spiegel International.

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Più ancora del pil in calo del 5%, rende preoccupati la contrazione del -9.1% dei consumi.

L’attuale crisi politica, con parcellizzazione delle forze politiche, lascia fitte nubi sui risultati delle elezioni federali di settembre. Ma senza un governo stabile sarà ben difficile risalire la china.

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Destatis. Gross domestic product: detailed results on the economic performance in the 1st quarter of 2021. Economic performance 5.0% below pre-crisis level.

                         Pressrelease #244 from 25 May 2021

                         Gross domestic product, 1st quarter of 2021

-1.8% on the previous quarter (price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted)

-3.4% on the same quarter a year earlier (price-adjusted)

-3.1% on the same quarter a year earlier (price- and calendar-adjusted)

Wiesbaden – The gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 1.8% in the first quarter of 2021 on the fourth quarter of 2020 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. After the German economy had somewhat recovered in the second half of 2020 (+8.7% in the third quarter and +0.5% in the fourth quarter), the coronavirus crisis caused another decline in economic performance at the beginning of 2021. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that the decrease was slightly larger than reported in the first release of 30 April 2021. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, the quarter before the corona crisis began, GDP was 5.0% lower.

                         Household final consumption expenditure markedly down, increase in imports larger than in exports

The continuing, and in part intensified, restrictions imposed to contain the coronavirus pandemic had a particularly marked impact on household final consumption expenditure at the beginning of the year. In the first quarter of 2021, household final consumption expenditure fell by 5.4% on the fourth quarter of 2020 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. Government final consumption expenditure was slightly higher than in the previous quarter (+0.2%). Positive contributions came especially from gross fixed capital formation in construction in the first quarter of 2021 as it rose 1.1% on the fourth quarter of 2020 after price, seasonal and calendar adjustment. Seasonally adjusted gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment was slightly down on the previous quarter (-0.2%).
Foreign trade increased at the beginning of the year. However, the increase in imports of goods and services in the first quarter of 2021 (+3.8%, price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted) was markedly larger than the increase in exports (+1.8%).

                         Gross value added fell considerably in trade and construction

In the first quarter of 2021, the price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted gross value added decreased by 0.8% on the fourth quarter of 2020. Diverging trends were shown for the individual economic sectors. Gross value added in manufacturing was slightly up on the fourth quarter of 2020 (+0.4%), whereas gross value added in trade, transport, accommodation and food services was down (-3.2%). The decrease in construction was even larger (-4.9%), one of the reasons being the unusually cold weather at the beginning of the year.

                         Gross domestic product still markedly down on a year earlier

GDP in the first quarter of 2021 was down a price-adjusted 3.4% compared with the first quarter of 2020. After price and calendar adjustment, the decrease was slightly smaller (-3.1%) as there was one working day less than a year earlier.

                         Household final consumption expenditure fell sharply also on a year earlier, trade in goods increased

Domestic demand continued to be far lower than a year earlier. This applies especially to household final consumption expenditure, which was down a price-adjusted 9.1% on the first quarter of 2020. Gross fixed capital formation did not contribute to year-on-year growth either. Fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment decreased by 0.7% and in construction by 1.6% on a year earlier. Only government final consumption expenditure (+2.5%) and foreign demand had an upward effect when compared with a year earlier.

Foreign trade rose considerably on the first quarter of 2020, with exports of goods increasing slightly more than imports of goods. At the same time, foreign trade in services saw two-digit decreases, as was the case in the previous three quarters. On the whole, exports of goods and services fell by 0.6% (price-adjusted) in the first quarter of 2021 on the first quarter of 2020. Total imports declined by 3.0% in the same period.

                         In nearly all economic sectors, economic performance was down on a year earlier

On the production side of the GDP, price-adjusted gross value added was lower in almost all economic sectors in the first quarter of 2021 compared with a year earlier. The largest decreases (-13.9%) were recorded for other services, which include entertainment and recreation. In trade, transport, accommodation and food services, gross value added fell sharply, too (-8.2%). Especially accommodation and food services recorded an even larger decrease. Following the two-digit slump last summer, the economic situation in manufacturing continued to improve; nevertheless, gross value added in the first quarter of 2021 was still by 1.2% below the level of the first quarter of 2020. Information and communication is the only sector that saw noticeable economic growth on a year earlier (+0.7%).

Total gross value added was down 3.5%.

                         Number of persons in employment still markedly below pre-crisis level

The economic performance in the first quarter of 2021 was achieved by roughly 44.4 million persons in employment whose place of employment was in Germany. This was a decrease of 707,000, or 1.6%, on a year earlier (see press release 230/21 of 18 May 2021). It must be noted, however, that short-time work does not affect the employment figures because short-time workers still count as persons in employment.

However, short-time work had a substantial effect on the average number of hours worked per person in employment. The latter decreased by 4.0% in the first quarter of 2021 compared with the first quarter of 2020, according to first provisional calculations of the Institute for Employment Research of the Federal Employment Agency. The labour volume of the overall economy, which is the total number of hours worked by all persons in employment, went down even more (-5.5%) over the same period.

Overall labour productivity (price-adjusted GDP per hour worked by persons in employment) rose by 2.3% on the same quarter of the previous year, according to provisional calculations. However, labour productivity per person in employment was down 1.9% compared with the first quarter of 2020.

                         Stable incomes and consumer reticence lead to increase of savings ratio

At current prices, both the GDP and the gross national income were down 1.1% in the first quarter of 2021 compared with a year earlier. Net national income at factor costs was up 0.9% on the first quarter of 2020. While the compensation of employees was slightly down (-0.4%), property and entrepreneurial income was up 4.0% according to first provisional calculations. Gross wages and salaries per employee recorded a slight increase on average (+0.2%), while average net salaries rose 1.0% because of decreasing social contributions paid by employees. The disposable income of households was by 1.1% higher in the first quarter of 2021 than a year earlier. Household final consumption expenditure at current prices, however, showed a decrease of 7.3%. As in the previous three quarters, the relatively stable incomes, on the one hand, and consumer reticence, on the other, resulted in a substantial rise in household saving during the corona crisis. According to provisional calculations, the savings ratio was 23.2% in the first quarter of 2021.

                         International and European comparison

Trends were diverging within Europe. In the first quarter of 2021, the price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP declined for example in Spain (-0.5%) and Italy (-0.4%) on the fourth quarter of 2020, while a slight increase was seen in France (+0.4%). According to provisional calculations, the Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat) reported a GDP decline of 0.4% on the previous quarter for the European Union (EU) as a whole, which was markedly smaller than for Germany (-1.8%). The United States recorded a substantial increase in their gross domestic product (+1.6%, converted figure) at the beginning of the year, compared with the fourth quarter of 2020.
When compared with a year earlier, too, an increase in GDP (+0.4%, converted figure) was reported for the United States. The French economy recorded a considerable increase on the first quarter of 2020 (+1.5%), whereas most EU Member States reported marked decreases. Spain recorded the largest year-on-year decline (-4.3%) of all the Member States which have data available as yet for the first quarter of 2021. In Italy, the decline (-1.4%) was smaller than in Germany (-3.1%). For the whole EU, Eurostat released a preliminary result of -1.7% on the same quarter of the previous year.