Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Usa. Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo +4.2% anno su anno. Fed in tilt.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-13.

2021-05-13__ Fed 001

In sintesi.

«Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 4.2 percent»

«The index for used cars and trucks rose 10.0 percent in April»

«The energy index rose 25.1 percent over the past 12 months»

«The gasoline index rose 49.6 percent over the last 12 months»

«The index for natural gas increased 12.1 percent»

«the index for lodging away from home rose sharply, increasing 7.6 percent»

«The index for car and truck rentals increased sharply in April, rising 16.2 percent»

«Indexes with large 12-month increases include used cars and trucks (21.0 percent) and airline fares (9.6 percent)»

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US inflation sees biggest jump since 2008

«US inflation surged in April from a year earlier as the economic recovery picked up.

Inflation is breaching the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% and this has raised fears it might need to raise interest rates to cool things down.

Seema Shah, chief strategist at the investment firm Principal Global Investors, says the figures marked a “big miss”.

“US CPI inflation has come in meaningfully higher than expected and will further stoke concerns that the Fed has misread the inflation story,” she said.

“Markets were already expecting a rise in inflation – the big question is how sticky that inflation is. That has not been answered today, nor will it be answered for several months.”

The Fed, for example, has insisted that increases would be temporary before levelling out as the economy reopens following Covid-19 restrictions.

Prices for airline fares, for example, were up 9.6% from April 2020 as as rules around travel ease in the US.

The Fed’s Vice Chair, Richard Clarida, said on Wednesday that he was “surprised” by the jump during a National Association for Business Economics conference.

But he added: “We’ve been saying for some time that reopening the economy would put some upward pressure on the price level.»

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2021-05-13__ Fed 002

Per l’intanto, così, per gradire:

«US 10y yields jump to 1.64% as data shows US inflation running hotter than expected»

Non siamo ancora al ‘si salvi chi può’, ma se si passasse il 2% ben pochi potranno salvarsi dalla rovina.

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US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index Summary

Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (ET) May 12, 2021.

                         Consumer Price Index – April 2021.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.6 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 4.2 percent before seasonal adjustment. This is the largest 12-month increase since a 4.9-percent increase for the period ending September 2008.

The index for used cars and trucks rose 10.0 percent in April. This was the largest 1-month increase since the series began in 1953, and it accounted for over a third of the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The food index increased in April, rising 0.4 percent as the indexes for food at home and food away from home both increased. The energy index decreased slightly, as a decline in the index for gasoline in April more than offset increases in the indexes for electricity and natural gas.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.9 percent in April, its largest monthly increase since April 1982. Nearly all major component indexes increased in April. Along with the index for used cars and trucks, the indexes for shelter, airline fares, recreation, motor vehicle insurance, and household furnishings and operations were among the indexes with a large impact on the overall increase.  

The all items index rose 4.2 percent for the 12 months ending April, a larger increase than the 2.6- percent increase for the period ending March. Similarly, the index for all items less food and energy rose 3.0 percent over the last 12 months, a larger increase than the 1.6-percent rise over the 12 month period ending in March. The energy index rose 25.1 percent over the last 12-months, and the food index increased 2.4 percent.

                         Food.

The food index increased 0.4 percent in April. The index for food at home also rose 0.4 percent over the month as all six major grocery store food group indexes increased. The index for fruits and vegetables rose 0.8 percent in April as the index for fresh fruits increased 1.5 percent. The index for dairy and related products rose 0.6 percent, and the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 0.5 percent over the month. The index for cereals and bakery products increased 0.4 percent and the index for nonalcoholic beverages rose 0.3 percent in April. The index for other food at home rose 0.1 percent over the month.

The food away from home index continued to rise, increasing 0.3 percent in April. The index for limited service meals rose 0.5 percent, while the index for full service meals increased 0.2 percent in April; both increases were the same as in March.

The food at home index increased 1.2 percent over the past 12 months. All six major grocery store food group indexes increased over the period. The largest increase was the fruits and vegetables index, which rose 3.3 percent. Several groups posted increases of less than 1 percent, including dairy and related products (0.6 percent), other food at home (0.4 percent), nonalcoholic beverages (0.2 percent), and cereals and bakery products (0.1 percent).

The index for food away from home rose 3.8 percent over the last year. The index for limited service meals rose 6.2 percent, and the index for full service meals rose 3.7 percent over the last 12 months. The index for food at employee sites and schools fell sharply over the last 12 months, declining 35.2 percent.  

                         Energy.

The energy index declined slightly in April falling 0.1 percent after rising in each of the last 10 months. The gasoline index declined 1.4 percent in April, also ending a string of ten consecutive increases. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices rose 2.0 percent in April.) Other major energy component indexes increased in April. The index for electricity increased 1.2 percent and the index for natural gas rose 2.4 percent over the month, its third consecutive increase.

The energy index rose 25.1 percent over the past 12 months. The gasoline index rose 49.6 percent over the last 12 months, its largest 12-month increase since the period ending January 2010. The index for natural gas increased 12.1 percent, and the index for electricity rose 3.6 percent over the same period.

                         All items less food and energy.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.9 percent in April. A 10.0-percent increase in the index for used cars and trucks was the largest contributor, but many indexes increased substantially. The shelter index rose 0.4 percent in April. The indexes for owners’ equivalent rent and for rent both increased 0.2 percent, while the index for lodging away from home rose sharply, increasing 7.6 percent. The index for airline fares also rose sharply in April, increasing 10.2 percent.

The indexes for recreation and for household furnishings and operations each increased 0.9 percent in April after rising 0.4 percent in March. The motor vehicle insurance index continued to rise, increasing 2.5 percent in April. The index for car and truck rentals increased sharply in April, rising 16.2 percent.

The index for new vehicles rose 0.5 percent in April after being unchanged in each of the last 2 months.

The index for communication rose 0.4 percent in April after being unchanged in March. The apparel index rose 0.3 percent in April after declining in each of the 2 prior months. The indexes for education, alcoholic beverages, personal care, and tobacco also increased in April.

The medical care index rose 0.1 percent in April, the same increase as in March. The index for prescription drugs rose 0.5 percent and the index for hospital services increased 0.2 percent. The index for physicians’ services, however, declined 0.3 percent in April after rising in each of the last 3 months. 

The index for all items less food and energy rose 3.0 percent over the past 12 months; this was its largest 12-month increase since January 1996. Indexes with large 12-month increases include used cars and trucks (21.0 percent) and airline fares (9.6 percent). The shelter index increased 2.1 percent over the last 12 months, and the medical care index rose 1.5 percent.