Giuseppe Sandro Mela.
La popolazione autoctona tedesca sta implacabilmente declinando.
Le femmine tedesche hanno il primo figlio dopo i trenta anni e sono trenta anni che l’indice di fertilità è sotto il valore di 2.1, ossia la soglia per mantenere costante la numerosità della popolazione.
Nel 1994 l’indice di fertilità era 1.243.
La numerosità della popolazione totale è ragionevolmente costante nel tempo, ma solo grazie ad una massiccia immigrazione.
Tuttavia, l’immigrazione sopperisce persone culturalmente poco preparate, adatte per lavori dignitosi ma pur sempre di basso rango. Il rapporto vecchi / giovani sta calando vistosamente e, soprattutto resta impossibile rimpiazzare gli esodi da posizioni ove il dominio del tedesco fluente sarebbe indispensabile. Personale universitario, giudici, medici, infermieri, burocrati e professionisti omologhi devono mandatoriamente essere madrelingua e di alto livello culturale: ma non ce ne sono di giovani in numero sufficiente.
Destatis ha rilasciato il Report Fertility rate down to 1.54 children per woman in 2019.
Average age of women having their first baby is over 30 years.
Press release No. 282 of 29 July 2020
WIESBADEN – Approximately 778,100 babies were born in Germany in 2019, which was a decrease of 9,400 compared with 2018. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that the total fertility rate was 1.54 children per woman in 2019. A year earlier, the figure stood at 1.57 children per woman.
The number of children born in Germany in 2019 sank by more than 9,000 compared with the year before. The average number of children per woman also dropped, with the capital, Berlin, registering the lowest rate.
Some 778,100 babies were born in Germany in 2019, a drop of 9,400 compared with the year before, figures released by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) showed on Wednesday.
Germany’s total fertility rate (TFR), also sank from 1.57 to 1.54.
Fourteen of Germany’s 16 states recorded a drop in the TFR, with only Bavaria and Bremen remaining at the same level. Bremen and Lower Saxony, both in the northwest of the country, had the highest TFR at 1.6, while Berlin had the lowest at 1.41.
Germans had a TFR of 1.43, only marginally below that of 2018 (1.45). The figure sank more significantly, from 2.12 to 2.06, among non-Germans in the country.
The TFR is the average number of children that would be borne per person of child-bearing age and ability if the person’s birth pattern resembled that of everyone capable of giving birth and who was between 15 and 49 in a particular year.
Older parent for firstborns
According to the statistics, the trend to older parenting is continuing in Germany, child-bearing parents were an average of 30.1 years old at the first of their first child. Ten years ago, that average age was 28.8. Child-bearing parents in Hamburg were oldest, 31.2 years old, while those in the eastern state of Saxony Anhalt were 28.9 years of age.
The lowest-ever TFR in Germany, at 1.3, was in 1995 shortly after reunification. That figure came about largely because of a massive drop in births in states that had belonged to the former East Germany.
According to the EU statistical agency Eurostat, Germany’s TFR in 2018 was slightly above the EU average. The highest TFR in that year was in France, at 1.88, and the lowest in Malta, at 1.23.