Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Geopolitica America Latina.

Brasile. Giugno. PMI in crescita, ma ancora in fascia di contrazione.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-07-08.

Brazil 001

Ricordiamo la definizione del Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

«The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a composite indicator designed to provide an overall view of activity in the manufacturing sector and acts as an leading indicator for the whole economy. The PMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for the following five indicators and their weight: New orders – 0.3, Output – 0.25 , Employment – 0.2, Suppliers delivery times – 0.15 and Stock of items purchased – 0.1 with the Delivery times index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction. When PMI is below 50.0 this indicates that the manufacturing economy is declining and a value above 50.0 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing economy. The individual survey indexes have been seasonally adjusted using the US Bureau of Census X-11 programme. The seasonally adjusted series are then used to calculate the seasonally adjusted PMI.»

*

A giugno i PMI del Brasile sono tutti in crescita:

– PMI Servizi, dal 27.6 di maggio al 35.9 di giugno;

– PMI Composito, dal 28.1 di maggio al 40.5 di giugno;

– PMI Manifatturiero, dal 38.3 di maggio al 51.6 di giugno.

Sono valori in crescita, ma sotto la soglia di 50, tranne il manifatturiero.

«Economic activity in Brazil contracted significantly in June for a fourth month, a survey of purchasing managers’ activity showed on Friday, as the COVID-19 crisis ensured Latin America’s largest economy ended the second quarter on a weak footing»

«There was, however, a sharp divergence between manufacturing, which expanded slightly, and the dominant services sector, which remained under severe pressure and shed jobs at the fastest pace on record»

«the April-June PMIs are consistent with Brazil’s gross domestic product falling by around 7-8% in the second quarter, maybe more. GDP shrank 1.5% in the January-March period.»

«Brazil’s economy is expected to shrink by a record 6.3% this year, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The International Monetary Fund is forecasting a crash of 9.1%.»

* * * * * * *

La crisi da Covid-19 ha flagellato il Brasile in modo severo.

Se è vero che si notano segnali di ragionevole ripresa, questi macrodati suggerirebbero un ritorno alla norma più lento di quanto sarebbe stato auspicabile.

*


Reuters. Brazil PMIs show economic activity shrank in June for fourth straight month

Economic activity in Brazil contracted significantly in June for a fourth month, a survey of purchasing managers’ activity showed on Friday, as the COVID-19 crisis ensured Latin America’s largest economy ended the second quarter on a weak footing.

There was, however, a sharp divergence between manufacturing, which expanded slightly, and the dominant services sector, which remained under severe pressure and shed jobs at the fastest pace on record.

IHS Markit’s Brazil services purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 35.9 in June from 27.6 in May, and the composite PMI encompassing manufacturing rose to 40.5 from 28.1.

Although both headline indexes rose on the month, they still signaled steep declines in activity: a reading above 50.0 marks expansion, while a reading below signifies contraction. Both marked the fourth month in a row of shrinking activity.

Paul Smith, economics director at data provider IHS Markit, said the April-June PMIs are consistent with Brazil’s gross domestic product falling by around 7-8% in the second quarter, maybe more. GDP shrank 1.5% in the January-March period.

“Despite easing somewhat since May, the downturn in Brazil’s services economy remains severe and of an unprecedented nature,” Smith said. “Indeed, the latest data on activity and new business was again quite simply awful,” he added.

Brazil’s economy is expected to shrink by a record 6.3% this year, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The International Monetary Fund is forecasting a crash of 9.1%.

The services employment index reading of 34.9 in June was the lowest since the index was constructed in 2007, IHS Markit said. The new business, outstanding business and new export business indexes all remained well blow 50.0.

On the upside, the services business expectations index jumped to 57.0, although Smith cautioned that even that is consistent with “historically muted” sentiment.

2 pensieri riguardo “Brasile. Giugno. PMI in crescita, ma ancora in fascia di contrazione.

I commenti sono chiusi.