Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Commercio

Cambogia. Una economia sana coinvolta nel calo della domanda globale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-06-05.

Cambogia 001

La Cambogia è uno dei tanti orzaioli purulenti delle moderne teorie economiche occidentali.

Dal 1995 al 2019 ha quintuplicato le entrate nette procapite e dal 1990 ha aumentato di ventisette volte il pil, passando dagli 899 milioni Usd del 1990 agli attuali 24,444 miliardi Usd.

Ed un successo economico di tale portata è stato ottenuto mantenendo il debito pubblico al 35%.

Questa è una ulteriore evidenza empirica di quanto inutile e dannoso sia l’intervento statale nel sistema economico, dogma apodittico delle teorie economiche occidentali. Il governo cambogiano ha lasciato lavorare in pace ed ha favorito la crescita dei posti di lavoro, senza lasciarsi andare a sentimentalismi inutili quanto dannosi.

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La World Bank ha rilasciato il Report Cambodia in the time of Covid-19.

«Cambodia became a lower middle-income economy in 2015. It sustained an average annual growth rate of 7.6% from 1995-2019. Per capita income increased from $323 in 1995 to $1,623 in 2019»

«While growth was strong at 7.1% in 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic is severely affecting most economic activities in Cambodia.»

«The global epidemiological and economic crisis unleashed by COVID-19 poses the greatest threat to Cambodia’s development in its 30 years of modern history»

«The three most affected sectors—tourism, manufacturing exports, and construction—contributed more than 70 percent of growth and 39.4 percent of total paid employment in 2019. »

«Therefore, in the current year, Cambodia’s economy is likely to register its slowest growth since 1994»

«Poverty could increase between 3 and 11 percentage points from a 50 percent income loss that lasts for six months for households engaged in tourism, wholesale and retail trade, garment, construction, or manufacturing»

«public debt is expected rise to 35 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2022»

«In Cambodia, the first case of coronavirus was confirmed on January 27, 2020, and as of May 12, 2020, there are 122 cases.»

«the outbreak caused sharp decelerations in most of Cambodia’s main engines of growth in the first quarter of 2020, including weakened tourism (and hospitality) and construction activity and, more recently, the export sector»

«The lack of external demand has been amplified by the fact that Cambodia’s exports are significantly concentrated by both products and destinations. The key exported products include garments, footwear, travel goods, and rice»

«The combined U.S. and EU markets comprise about 52 percent of Cambodia’s total merchandise exports»

«The collapse of global trade has significant negative direct and indirect impacts on Cambodia»

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Come per altre nazioni con economie sostanzialmente sane e ben gestite, anche la Cambogia risente del tracollo del commercio estero, per caduta della domanda globale..

In simile situazione, il governo cambogiano è del tutto impotente a contenere il fenomeno, che è appunto su scala globale.

Questa è una ulteriore lezione di quanto siano intimamente connesse la produzione e la domanda dei beni prodotti.

Questa crisi da Covid-19 è caratterizzata da un sostanziale impoverimento a livello globale, cui consegue la domanda stagnante.

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World Bank. Cambodia’s Economy in the Time of COVID-19.

Cambodia became a lower middle-income economy in 2015. It sustained an average annual growth rate of 7.6% from 1995-2019. Per capita income increased from $323 in 1995 to $1,623 in 2019. While growth was strong at 7.1% in 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic is severely affecting most economic activities in Cambodia.

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«The global epidemiological and economic crisis unleashed by COVID-19 poses the greatest threat to Cambodia’s development in its 30 years of modern history. The three most affected sectors—tourism, manufacturing exports, and construction—contributed more than 70 percent of growth and 39.4 percent of total paid employment in 2019. Therefore, in the current year, Cambodia’s economy is likely to register its slowest growth since 1994, contracting between -1 percent (baseline) and -2.9 percent (downside).

Poverty could increase between 3 and 11 percentage points from a 50 percent income loss that lasts for six months for households engaged in tourism, wholesale and retail trade, garment, construction, or manufacturing. The fiscal deficit could reach its highest level in 22 years, and public debt is expected rise to 35 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2022. The authorities have introduced emergency measures to contain the outbreak and provide fiscal assistance to affected households, workers, and enterprises. To facilitate a robust recovery, the government will need to continue to ensure macroeconomic and financial sector stability and accelerate trade and investment reforms as well as encourage faster adoption of digital technologies.

An unprecedented shock

In Cambodia, the first case of coronavirus was confirmed on January 27, 2020, and as of May 12, 2020, there are 122 cases.1 The Cambodian authorities have taken swift action to detect and prevent local outbreaks by imposing a travel ban on visitors from severely infected countries, closing schools, urging citizens to avoid mass gatherings, and postponing mass celebrations of the Khmer New Year ceremony in mid-April, including an imposition of a lockdown during the three-day Khmer New Year celebration period (see box 1 for more details). In April 2020, a “State of Emergency” law was urgently adopted (and ready to be declared, if there are public health emergencies).

While Cambodia has so far avoided a health crisis, it has not been immune from the economic crisis sweeping the global economy.

The growth impact of COVID-19 hinges on the contagion, severity, and duration of the outbreak, the response of societies, and the magnitude and effectiveness of policy actions. The direct costs of preventive measures to contain a local outbreak currently appear manageable. However, the outbreak caused sharp decelerations in most of Cambodia’s main engines of growth in the first quarter of 2020, including weakened tourism (and hospitality) and construction activity and, more recently, the export sector.

The lack of external demand has been amplified by the fact that Cambodia’s exports are significantly concentrated by both products and destinations. The key exported products include garments, footwear, travel goods, and rice.

The combined U.S. and EU markets comprise about 52 percent of Cambodia’s total merchandise exports. In addition, exports rely on imports of intermediate goods (raw materials for Cambodia’s garment, footwear and travel goods industries) which earlier experienced supply chain disruptions. The collapse of global trade has significant negative direct and indirect impacts on Cambodia.»