Pubblicato in: Commercio

Commerci Mondiali. Marzo. -1.4% mese su mese. Bene Cina ed India.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-05-28.

2020-05-26__Global Trade 013

«CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

– World trade volume decreased 1.4% month-on-month (growth was -0.7% in February, initial estimate -1.5%) and growth was -2.5% in 2020Q1 (-0.5% in 2019Q4).

– World trade momentum was -2.5% (non-annualised; -1.3% in February, initial estimate -1.4%).

– World industrial production decreased 0.2% month-on-month (having increased 0.1% in February, initial estimate 0.2%) and growth was -4.2% in 2020Q1 (0.3% in 2019Q4).

– World industrial production momentum was -4.2% (non-annualised; -2.4% in February, initial estimate -2.6%).»

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Questi sono i dati mondiali.

La lettura della mappa allegata è molto utile.

Mentre USA, blocco europeo ed Australia evidenziano decrescite nell’ordine del -2%, Cina, India ed altri paesi asiatici hanno crescite del +2%, e gli stati dell’America latina sviluppi di circa dell’1%.

Gli stati occidentalizzati hanno retto peggio a causa dei loro problemi strutturali e politici.

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The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, World Trade Monitor, ha pubblicato il report di marzo.

«World trade was 1.4% lower in March compared to February. This decline is hardly greater than in January and February, when world trade also declined by an average of 1.2%. The decline in industrial production of 0.2% is also in line with the previous months. There are major regional differences in the development of trade and production. The downturn is particularly strong in Europe, with trade falling by more than 7% and industrial production falling by over 12%. In China, trade and production rebounded in March, following a sharp decline in January and a consolidation in February. It is striking that the fluctuations in industrial production, both the downturn in the advanced economies and the growth in the emerging economies, are stronger than the fluctuations in trade. We expect a stronger decline in trade and production in April and May, in line with a tightening of COVID-19 measures in many regions. The monitor refers to March, but we provide a look ahead in these special times. Partial figures for April show a mostly negative picture, and leading indicators such as Global New Export Orders point to a stronger decline in global trade in the coming months.

– World trade volume decreased 1.4% month-on-month (growth was -0.7% in February, initial estimate -1.5%) and growth was -2.5% in 2020Q1 (-0.5% in 2019Q4).

– World trade momentum was -2.5% (non-annualised; -1.3% in February, initial estimate -1.4%).

– World industrial production decreased 0.2% month-on-month (having increased 0.1% in February, initial estimate 0.2%) and growth was -4.2% in 2020Q1 (0.3% in 2019Q4).

– World industrial production momentum was -4.2% (non-annualised; -2.4% in February, initial estimate -2.6%).»

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Bloomberg. Global Trade Volumes Fall the Most in More Than a Decade

Global trade took its biggest hit in more than a decade in March, when the spread of the coronavirus began to take an increasingly heavy toll on businesses.

World trade volumes fell 4.3% from a year earlier, the most since 2009, according to the World Trade Monitor. On the month, they fell 1.4% for a third straight decline. The slump is only an initial sign of the damage from the lockdowns to contain the disease, and surveys have since shown a deep recession is underway.

The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, which publishes the trade monitor, said partial figures for April show a “mostly negative picture,” and leading indicators point to a stronger decline in global trade in the coming months.