Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Svezia. Economia -7%. Disoccupati ufficiali 7.9%, reali 17%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-05-27.

STOCCOLMA-01

Se gli svedesi avessero definito come occupati tutti i nati da donna in Svezia, l’occupazione sarebbe del 100% e la disoccupazione sarebbe dello 0%.

Visto come è semplice?

Basta solo cambiare le definizioni. Detto e fatto.

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«Sweden’s highly contested response to Covid-19 left much of the economy open. Even so, the country is now headed for its worst recession since World War II.»

«Scandinavia’s biggest economy will shrink 7% this year, Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson said»

«Shortly after she spoke, the debt office revealed an historic 30-fold spike in borrowing to cover emergency spending amid record job losses.»

«40% of businesses in Sweden’s service sector now fear bankruptcy.»

«Though the country has seen considerably more Covid-19 deaths than its Nordic neighbors, some theorized it might at least suffer less economic pain. But the latest data challenge that idea.»

«“a very deep economic crisis. …. deep downturn in the economy is happening faster than we expected»

«Sweden has left shops, restaurants, gyms and schools open throughout the pandemic, while encouraging citizens to use common sense and observe distancing guidelines.»

«But the trade-reliant economy has been unable to withstand the global shock triggered by widespread lockdowns elsewhere»

«The economy will be constrained by the recovery in the rest of the continent given its dependence on external demand»

«About half Sweden’s GDP comes from exports, and some of its best known companies, such as Volvo Cars and Electrolux, have had to cut thousands of jobs as demand dries up»

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Con o senza il lockdown, un sistema economico che dipende per la metà del suo pil dalle esportazioni va immediatamente in recessione qualora mancassero gli acquirenti. Così molte grandi aziende hanno iniziato a licenziare e la disoccupazione è salita in un mese dal 6.7% al 7.9%.

Ma questo è il ‘dato ufficiale’ frutto di un ingegnoso marchingegno.

«Sweden’s unemployment rate rose more than expected in April»

«unemployment could rise as high as 17%. That’s how high the unemployment rate would be if all the workers in the government’s furlough program were counted as unemployed.»

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Gli svedesi hanno considerato come ‘occupati’ tutti coloro che sono nell’equivalente della nostra cassa di integrazione.

Morale.

Leggere con cura le note metodologiche e le definizioni prima di ragionare sui dati numerici.

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Swedish Jobless Rate Climbs Amid Brewing Political Storm

Sweden’s unemployment rate rose more than expected in April as the effects of the Covid-19 crisis continued to wreak havoc across the Nordic region’s biggest economy.

The seasonally-adjusted jobless measure increased to 7.9% from 6.7% a month earlier, Statistics Sweden reported. Economists were expecting a rate of 7.8%, according to the median of seven estimates from a Bloomberg survey. The unadjusted rate rose to 8.2% amid a sharp drop in the number of hours worked, mainly within the hotel and restaurant industry.

What Bloomberg Economists Say…

Unless demand picks up shortly, unemployment could rise as high as 17%. That’s how high the unemployment rate would be if all the workers in the government’s furlough program were counted as unemployed.

–Johanna Jeansson

The worsening jobless data comes at a difficult time for the Social Democrat-led government. Next week the administration is expected make public the results of an inquiry into labor market reform, which was set up at the behest of its budget allies after the general election in 2018.

Included in the proposals are regulatory measures that will make it easier and less costly for employers to fire workers, according to a report by state broadcaster SVT on Sunday.

The proposal has sparked fury among the country’s union leaders and opposition political parties, which are threatening to oust Prime Minister Stefan Lofven if it becomes law.

The Left Party Leader Jonas Sjostedt told SVT that his party would call for a no-confidence vote in the prime minister were he to push through with the new legislation — something the leader of the Moderates, Ulf Kristersson, said he would also back.

“This is the worst attack on job security in decades,” Sjostedt said. “I hope the government is wise enough, during a time like this when so many are losing their jobs, to throw the proposals in the bin.”

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Sweden in ‘Very Deep Economic Crisis’ Despite Soft Lockdown

Sweden’s highly contested response to Covid-19 left much of the economy open. Even so, the country is now headed for its worst recession since World War II.

Scandinavia’s biggest economy will shrink 7% this year, Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson said on Tuesday. Shortly after she spoke, the debt office revealed an historic 30-fold spike in borrowing to cover emergency spending amid record job losses. A separate survey showed 40% of businesses in Sweden’s service sector now fear bankruptcy.

There’s been intense speculation over Sweden’s controversial model for fighting the spread of the coronavirus. Though the country has seen considerably more Covid-19 deaths than its Nordic neighbors, some theorized it might at least suffer less economic pain. But the latest data challenge that idea.

Andersson said her country is now seeing “a very deep economic crisis.” She also said the “deep downturn in the economy is happening faster than we expected.”

Marten Bjellerup, chief economist at the debt office in Stockholm, says he thinks Sweden will fare “somewhat better” than others, but acknowledged “the difference is marginal.”

The Swedish Model

Sweden has left shops, restaurants, gyms and schools open throughout the pandemic, while encouraging citizens to use common sense and observe distancing guidelines.

But the trade-reliant economy has been unable to withstand the global shock triggered by widespread lockdowns elsewhere.

“The economy will be constrained by the recovery in the rest of the continent given its dependence on external demand,” said David Oxley of Capital Economics.

About half Sweden’s GDP comes from exports, and some of its best known companies, such as Volvo Cars and Electrolux, have had to cut thousands of jobs as demand dries up.

“The new orders component of the manufacturing PMI is consistent with an eye-watering decline in export values in the second half of this year,” Oxley said.

A Sustainable Strategy

Sweden’s government has made clear its Covid-19 strategy isn’t about putting the economy ahead of lives. Instead, the top epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, says his approach is more sustainable when tackling a virus that’s likely to be here for the long term.

Tegnell’s theory is widely accepted by Swedes and has won some support from the World Health Organization. Michael Ryan, who runs WHO’s health emergencies program, recently said, “If we are to reach a new normal, in many ways Sweden represents a future model.”

But for now, Sweden’s experiences suggest there might be few economic benefits to leaving an economy open during a pandemic.

Asked whether Sweden might see a quick rebound, Andersson, the finance minister, said “that doesn’t seem very likely at present. We expect a more drawn out scenario.”

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