Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo

Italia. Debito pubblico al limite della sostenibilità. – Bloomberg.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-05-25.

Bruegel Pieter. Torre di Babele. 1563. Vienna__001

«Italy’s Huge Debt Load Is at Risk of Becoming Unmanageable»

«Bloomberg Economics says debt ratio could rise well above 150%»

«Low economic growth will hamper ability to manage situation»

«Italy’s debts run the risk of becoming unmanageable, and a creeping rise in borrowing costs shows investors are getting nervous»

«Italy …. has suffered serious economic damage from nearly two months of lockdown»

«The European Commission forecasts output will shrink 9.5% this year, while Bloomberg Economics expects a 13% contraction.»

«If there’s long-lasting damage, low growth combined with government spending could push the already mammoth debt well beyond 150% of gross domestic product»

«Italy’s dismal economic performance …. puts the country’s ability to service its debts in doubt»

«Though the European Central Bank has been buying bonds through its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program to help reduce spreads, Italy’s 10-year sovereign yield has still slowly increased to about 1.8% from 0.9% in mid-February»

«EU leaders will have to decide if they want to underwrite a bailout or let Italy go bust»

«debt restructuring may be inevitable for Italy»

* * * * * * *

Il dramma dell’Italia è riassumibile in una legislazione assurdamente prolifica e farraginosa, cui si associa una pletora di norme attuative, circolari, direttive, decreti attuativi, normativi e via quant’altro. A ciò consegue un moloch burocratico che incombe su chiunque avesse avuto l’idea di produrre qualcosa, sia esso artigiano oppure società. Poi, a moh di ciliegina sulla torta, una pressione fiscale che troneggia a livello mondiale. Infine, c’è tutto il resto.

Sotto questa premessa diventano del tutto leciti i dubbi degli investitori sulla sostenibilità nel tempo del debito pubblico.

Ma se questa sarebbe la situazione odierna, quella futura apparirebbe a tinte ben più fosche.

A seguito del lockdown aziende e partite Iva presenteranno una denuncia dei redditi in perdita, da cui un crollo delle entrate statali l’anno prossimo, proprio quando ci sarebbe più bisogno di interventi statali strutturali. Saranno almeno ottanta miliardi.

Sinceramente, gli analisti di Bloomberg sembrerebbero essere degli inguaribili ottimisti.

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Italy’s Huge Debt Load Is at Risk of Becoming Unmanageable

– Bloomberg Economics says debt ratio could rise well above 150%

– Low economic growth will hamper ability to manage situation

*

Italy’s debts run the risk of becoming unmanageable, and a creeping rise in borrowing costs shows investors are getting nervous, according to Bloomberg Economics.

Italy, the original epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic in Europe, has suffered serious economic damage from nearly two months of lockdown. The European Commission forecasts output will shrink 9.5% this year, while Bloomberg Economics expects a 13% contraction.

If there’s long-lasting damage, low growth combined with government spending could push the already mammoth debt well beyond 150% of gross domestic product. That would reinforce the view that Italy needs more fiscal help from the European Union or even raise the issue of restructuring.

“Italy’s dismal economic performance, which is set to get worse as the nation’s leaders struggle to deal with the fallout from the coronavirus, puts the country’s ability to service its debts in doubt,” said David Powell, senior euro-area economist at Bloomberg Economics.

The government has just passed a 55-billion euro ($60 billion) stimulus program to try to prop up the economy, which follows an earlier 25 billion-euro plan in March.

Though the European Central Bank has been buying bonds through its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program to help reduce spreads, Italy’s 10-year sovereign yield has still slowly increased to about 1.8% from 0.9% in mid-February.

The ECB’s program “will only go so far,” said Powell. “EU leaders will have to decide if they want to underwrite a bailout or let Italy go bust.”

If they go for the latter, debt restructuring “may be inevitable for Italy,” he said.

Un pensiero riguardo “Italia. Debito pubblico al limite della sostenibilità. – Bloomberg.

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