Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Unione Europea

Germania. Pil Q1 definitivo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-05-25.

2020-05-25__Germania Pil Q1 001

Destatis ha rilasciato i dati definitivi relativi al pil del primo trimestre, Q1.

«it is the largest decrease since the global financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009, and the second largest since German unification»

«Although the spread of the coronavirus did not have a major effect on the economic performance of January and February, the impact of the pandemic has been serious for the first quarter of 2020»

«operating profit (EBIT) of Germany’s large companies shrank by 23.5 percent to a total of around 20.3 billion euros (21.9 billion U.S. dollars) in 2020 Q1, compared to the same quarter last year »

«the German Ministry of Finance said that Germany would have 81.5 billion euros (88 billion U.S. dollars) less in tax revenues in 2020 than last year due to the impact of the coronavirus crisis»

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Questi dati sono a tal punto scabrosi che Destatis, l’Istituto di statistica tedesco, pubblica soltanto la tabella senza il solito commento approfondito. Forse, Xinhua è l’agenzia che meglio riporta la notizia.

Germany’s GDP to shrink by 4.2 pct in 2020: leading think-tanks.

«Germany’s economic output would shrink by 4.2 percent in 2020 because of the coronavirus pandemic, leading economic institutes forecast on Wednesday.

Germany’s gross domestic product (GDP) was likely to have shrunk by 1.9 percent in the first quarter (Q1) and would fall by 9.8 percent in the second quarter (Q2), according to the forecast.

The joint economic forecast was prepared by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), the ifo Institute (Munich), the Kiel Institute (IfW Kiel), the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), and RWI (Essen).

“Germany’s economy is slumping dramatically as a result of the coronavirus pandemic,” the institutes noted.

The anticipated “sharp decline” in Q2 would be “more than twice as large” as that recorded in Q1 of 2009.

The current recession was “leaving very clear marks” on the German labor market and the government budget, said Timo Wollmershaeuser, senior economist at the ifo Institute.

The unemployment rate would rise to 5.9 percent “at its peak” in 2020 while the number of short-time workers in Germany would further increase to 2.4 million.

This year, Germany would end up with a “record deficit” of 159 billion euros (172.8 billion U.S. dollars), according to the forecast. In 2019, Germany achieved a positive balance of 45.3 billion euros.

For 2021, the institutes expect a swift recovery of the German economy and forecast a 5.8 percent growth.»

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