Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Crisi del debito, Brexit, Coronavirus. Il ‘blocco’ europeo potrebbe implodere.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-05-20.

Giulio Romano. Mantova. Palazzo Te. Caduta dei Giganti. 002 Particolare

Il 6 aprile Frau Merkel aveva mandato un messaggio subliminale, ma comprensibilissimo.

Merkel Warns EU Faces Biggest Challenge Since Its Foundation

«The European Union is facing the biggest challenge since its foundation, Chancellor Angela Merkel warned as she stressed Germany’s readiness to help revive the continent’s economy once the coronavirus pandemic subsides.

“Everyone has been hit equally by this and it must be in the interest of everyone and of Germany that Europe emerges stronger from this test,” Merkel said in a press briefing before crucial talks over the EU’s crisis response later this week. “The answer can only be: More Europe, a stronger Europe and a well-functioning Europe.” ….

Merkel backed her finance minister, Olaf Scholz, who favors the euro area bailout fund as the primary instrument to offer precautionary credit to member states. She also backed a European Commission proposal for a state-sponsored wage support system, one of the main tools for crisis fighting in Germany.

“This will be about showing that we are prepared to defend our Europe, to strengthen it,” Merkel said. ….»

* * * * * * *

«Leggiadro viso,

In pianto o in riso, – è menzognero.

È sempre misero

Chi a lei s’affida,

Chi le confida – mal cauto il core!»

Il Duca di Mantova era un profondo conoscitore degli abissi dell’animo umano.

* * * * * * *

«The answer can only be: More Europe, a stronger Europe and a well-functioning Europe»

Già queste sole parole di Frau Merkel avrebbero dovuto mettere tutti in allarme, ed infatti così fu. Solo che allertarono ben pochi, quelli che adesso si stanno domandando inquieti se l’Unione Europea sopravvivrà ancora un pochino.

«Can the EU Survive?»

«The European Union is in crisis, again. Effectively the world’s third-biggest economy, the 27-nation bloc is struggling to muster a united response to the deepest recession in almost a century unleashed by the coronavirus.»

«German Chancellor Angela Merkel says none has been as serious as this one»

«Having forecast the biggest decline in regional output since World War II, the European Commission warned that the unevenness of contractions and recoveries country-to-country will put at risk the survival of the euro area»

«The common currency bloc, encompassing 19 countries, is at the core of the European unification project but lacks many of the tools that regular economies can deploy.»

«Less wealthy southern members are demanding more financial support from their richer peers but without the strings that are typically attached»

«Wealthier nations, who have long seen themselves as being asked to bankroll profligate southerners, are resisting.»

«Europe’s tourism-dependent economies poised for nosedive this year»

«Germany’s constitutional court in early May disputed the legitimacy of the European Central Bank’s sovereign bond purchases program, possibly limiting the bank’s firepower in the future»

«Potentially more damaging, the ruling challenges the authority of the European Court of Justice as the ultimate arbiter in the bloc.»

«The German court’s rejection of an ECJ ruling may embolden others to make challenges, including the illiberal governments in Eastern Europe that have sought to upend the EU’s core principles of the rule of law and of checks and balances»

«The German ruling thus raises risks for the entire legal order in the EU and for the first time begs a fundamental question: If EU law doesn’t take primacy over national law, how can a single market and a single currency extending beyond national borders function?»

«In the past decade alone, a sovereign debt crisis almost led to the disintegration of the single currency»

«An immigration wave in 2015 found the EU equally unprepared, as the arrival of refugees totaling some 0.2% of the bloc’s population caused panic in governments»

«A year later, the U.K. stunned the world by voting to leave the bloc, while a surge in support for populist leaders across the continent produced new prophecies of doom»

«they’re interconnected, with each crisis feeding into the next and leaving a legacy of unresolved issues while exposing the institutional shortcomings of the European project.»

«Only the commission (the EU’s executive arm) can propose legislation, but the main legislator is the Council of the European Union, consisting of national governments, which can only take decisions by unanimity or a large majority. Approval for most decisions is needed by the European Parliament, a fragmented group of directly elected lawmakers chosen by proportional representation from member states. Support of several political factions is required to garner a simple majority.»

«Euro-area debt is predicted to increase to 102.5% of economic output»

«Is there a common thread to the challenges? In a word, sovereignty. National governments answer to their own voters and need to abide by national constitutions, parliaments and procedures, which in essence undermines efforts to make strategic decisions about the bloc as a whole»

«In short, the EU’s setup does not lend itself to handling urgent and complex crises.»

«How bad might things get this time? Bad enough for Merkel and France President Emmanuel Macron to make dire warnings»

«The EU’s share in global economic output has been shrinking, the bloc has been unable to display foreign policy muscle and appears increasingly squeezed between the U.S. and China»

«as the poet T.S. Eliot once put it, will end “not with a bang but with a whimper.”»

«European Commission predicts euro-area GDP will contract 7.7% in 2020 »

* * * * * * *

Se le parole dei potenti quasi sempre lasciano il tempo che trovano, al contrario, le loro azioni, palesi o sotterranee, sono indicatori potenti e precisi.

Finirà con un piagnisteo“, diceva bene T Eliot.

Nota Importante.

Quando vogliono, e possono, anche gli articolisti americani sanno usare correttamente l’inglese classico. Il termine ‘European Union’ sta andando in disuso, sostituito dal vocabolo ‘bloc’, ossia solo una unione di fatto di persone o stati volti a perseguire un qualche interesse comune. Ma è anche un termine forense.

*


Debt Crisis, Brexit, Now Virus. Can the EU Survive?

The European Union is in crisis, again. Effectively the world’s third-biggest economy, the 27-nation bloc is struggling to muster a united response to the deepest recession in almost a century unleashed by the coronavirus. Old divisions have resurfaced and legacies of past crises are threatening to pull it apart. While this isn’t the first time the EU has faced an existential threat, German Chancellor Angela Merkel says none has been as serious as this one.

  1. Why is the threat so great this time?

Having forecast the biggest decline in regional output since World War II, the European Commission warned that the unevenness of contractions and recoveries country-to-country will put at risk the survival of the euro area. The common currency bloc, encompassing 19 countries, is at the core of the European unification project but lacks many of the tools that regular economies can deploy. There’s no common treasury to direct funds where they are needed and, so far, little agreement on proposals to help out poorer nations. Less wealthy southern members are demanding more financial support from their richer peers but without the strings that are typically attached. Wealthier nations, who have long seen themselves as being asked to bankroll profligate southerners, are resisting.

Southern Devastation

Europe’s tourism-dependent economies poised for nosedive this year

  1. What else is shaking European unity?

A court ruling in the EU’s most powerful state. Germany’s constitutional court in early May disputed the legitimacy of the European Central Bank’s sovereign bond purchases program, possibly limiting the bank’s firepower in the future. Potentially more damaging, the ruling challenges the authority of the European Court of Justice as the ultimate arbiter in the bloc. The German court’s rejection of an ECJ ruling may embolden others to make challenges, including the illiberal governments in Eastern Europe that have sought to upend the EU’s core principles of the rule of law and of checks and balances. The German ruling thus raises risks for the entire legal order in the EU and for the first time begs a fundamental question: If EU law doesn’t take primacy over national law, how can a single market and a single currency extending beyond national borders function?

  1. Isn’t the EU always in crisis?

Regular predictions of its demise have proved greatly exaggerated. In the past decade alone, a sovereign debt crisis almost led to the disintegration of the single currency. An immigration wave in 2015 found the EU equally unprepared, as the arrival of refugees totaling some 0.2% of the bloc’s population caused panic in governments. A year later, the U.K. stunned the world by voting to leave the bloc, while a surge in support for populist leaders across the continent produced new prophecies of doom. The EU has managed to survive each blow, bruised and battered, but muddling through no less.

  1. Why so many crises?

One popular theory is they’re interconnected, with each crisis feeding into the next and leaving a legacy of unresolved issues while exposing the institutional shortcomings of the European project. Former EC President Jean-Claude Juncker called it a “polycrisis.” For instance, the euro area shares a currency but not a proper common budget, the single market is incomplete, capital markets are fragmented and a long-running push for banking union remains unresolved. Decision-making is complex: Only the commission (the EU’s executive arm) can propose legislation, but the main legislator is the Council of the European Union, consisting of national governments, which can only take decisions by unanimity or a large majority. Approval for most decisions is needed by the European Parliament, a fragmented group of directly elected lawmakers chosen by proportional representation from member states. Support of several political factions is required to garner a simple majority.

Debt Load

Euro-area debt is predicted to increase to 102.5% of economic output

  1. Is there a common thread to the challenges?

In a word, sovereignty. National governments answer to their own voters and need to abide by national constitutions, parliaments and procedures, which in essence undermines efforts to make strategic decisions about the bloc as a whole. In late February, just as the coronavirus was beginning to wreak havoc across the EU, its leaders spent 28 hours bickering over fractions of a percentage point of the bloc’s relatively small budget, many keen to show how they defended national interest above all. Because of such division and the need for unanimity or sizable majorities, decisions are usually taken on the basis of finding the lowest common denominator. In short, the EU’s setup does not lend itself to handling urgent and complex crises.

  1. How bad might things get this time?

Bad enough for Merkel and France President Emmanuel Macron to make dire warnings. Past experience shows that EU leaders will do just about enough to salvage the situation and avoid the worst, according to Janis Emmanouilidis, a Brussels-based analyst at the European Policy Centre. Doomsayers have consistently underestimated the political will of Europe’s establishment to keep it together, but doing only enough to avoid implosion, and only after all other options have been exhausted, may not be a viable strategy in the long term. The EU’s share in global economic output has been shrinking, the bloc has been unable to display foreign policy muscle and appears increasingly squeezed between the U.S. and China. Critics warn that if the bloc’s leaders keep defending petty interests, the EU may end up becoming ever more irrelevant and, as the poet T.S. Eliot once put it, will end “not with a bang but with a whimper.”

Pandemic Fallout

European Commission predicts euro-area GDP will contract 7.7% in 2020.

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