Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali

Banca di Francia. Economia -27%, Manifatturiero -37%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-05-17.

Banca di Francia 001

La Banca di Francia ha rilasciato un Report corposo sulla situazione economica.

Update on business conditions in France at the end of March 2020.

Data la lunghezza, ne riportiamo degli stralci, invitando però i Lettori a leggersi con cura il testo integrale, che è anche corredato di numerosi grafici.

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«As announced in a press release on 18 March, the Banque de France did not publish its customary macroeconomic forecasts at the end of March for the current year and the next two years. With considerable uncertainty still surrounding the lockdown’s length and exit procedures, we continue at this stage to prioritise close monthly monitoring of business conditions.»

«The overall capacity utilisation rate for manufacturing industry fell from 78 % in February to 56 % in March, an all-time low for the survey.»

«According to the survey’s sector-based information, we estimate the loss of activity at around one-third for a typical lockdown week in March»

«According to this sector-based approach, the loss of activity for the economy as a whole is estimated at 32 % in a typical lockdown week.»

«The greatest losses are in construction (loss equivalent to three-quarters of normal activity) and trade. Losses in transportation, accommodation and food services are equivalent to two-thirds of normal activity.»

«Manufacturing industry is also heavily impacted (loss equivalent to around one-half of normal activity), as are other market services (equivalent to approximately one-third), including artistic activities and entertainment, as well as business services affected by the global economic slowdown.»

«Combining all of these sectors, namely manufacturing industry, construction and non-financial market services, which together represent 55 % of GDP, the loss of activity represents about one-half of the normal level.»

«Over the month of March, the loss of activity is estimated at 17 %, based on two weeks of lockdown and the downturn in activity recorded in certain sectors from the start of the month.»

«Our previous forecast for quarterly GDP growth in the first quarter, which we published a month ago with the February survey, was +0.1%. The impact on activity from the lockdown measures estimated above has caused us to sharply revise our estimated quarterly GDP growth rate to -6 %»

«For example, bankcard payment volumes fell by 50 % on average during the week of 23 to 29 March»

«total consumption declined by approximately 30 % during the week beginning on 23 March»

«Another external data source is information on the “partial activity” applications filed by companies, which concerned 3.9 million employees as at 1 April, according to figures compiled by the Research and Statistics Directorate of the French Labour Ministry (DARES), or around 13 % of the labour force»

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Alcuni dati per memento.

– L’economia francese è affondata del 27%.

– L’attività manifatturiera ad aprile è calata del 37% contro il -48% di marzo.

Un pensiero riguardo “Banca di Francia. Economia -27%, Manifatturiero -37%.

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