Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Germania. Pil Q1 Trimestrale -2.2%, Annuale -1.9%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-05-15.

2020-05-15__Germania Pil 001

«it is the largest decrease since the global financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009, and the second largest since German unification»

«Although the spread of the coronavirus did not have a major effect on the economic performance of January and February, the impact of the pandemic has been serious for the first quarter of 2020»

«operating profit (EBIT) of Germany’s large companies shrank by 23.5 percent to a total of around 20.3 billion euros (21.9 billion U.S. dollars) in 2020 Q1, compared to the same quarter last year »

«the German Ministry of Finance said that Germany would have 81.5 billion euros (88 billion U.S. dollars) less in tax revenues in 2020 than last year due to the impact of the coronavirus crisis»

* * * * * * *

Questi dati sono a tal punto scabrosi che Destatis, l’Istituto di statistica tedesco, pubblica soltanto la tabella senza il solito commento approfondito. Forse, Xinhua è l’agenzia che meglio riporta la notizia.

Germany’s GDP to shrink by 4.2 pct in 2020: leading think-tanks.

«Germany’s economic output would shrink by 4.2 percent in 2020 because of the coronavirus pandemic, leading economic institutes forecast on Wednesday.

Germany’s gross domestic product (GDP) was likely to have shrunk by 1.9 percent in the first quarter (Q1) and would fall by 9.8 percent in the second quarter (Q2), according to the forecast.

The joint economic forecast was prepared by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), the ifo Institute (Munich), the Kiel Institute (IfW Kiel), the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), and RWI (Essen).

“Germany’s economy is slumping dramatically as a result of the coronavirus pandemic,” the institutes noted.

The anticipated “sharp decline” in Q2 would be “more than twice as large” as that recorded in Q1 of 2009.

The current recession was “leaving very clear marks” on the German labor market and the government budget, said Timo Wollmershaeuser, senior economist at the ifo Institute.

The unemployment rate would rise to 5.9 percent “at its peak” in 2020 while the number of short-time workers in Germany would further increase to 2.4 million.

This year, Germany would end up with a “record deficit” of 159 billion euros (172.8 billion U.S. dollars), according to the forecast. In 2019, Germany achieved a positive balance of 45.3 billion euros.

For 2021, the institutes expect a swift recovery of the German economy and forecast a 5.8 percent growth.»

*

German GDP down 2.2 percent in Q1 amid pandemic.

«The gross domestic product of Germany in the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 was down by 2.2 percent on the 4th quarter of 2019 upon price, seasonal and calendar adjustments, the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported on Friday.

According to Destatis, it is the largest decrease since the global financial and economic crisis of 2008/2009, and the second largest since German unification.

“The corona pandemic has hit the German economy hard,” Destatis noted in a statement.

Although the spread of the coronavirus did not have a major effect on the economic performance of January and February, the impact of the pandemic has been serious for the first quarter of 2020, Destatis added.

The day before, a study published by consulting firm Ernst & Young showed that operating profit (EBIT) of Germany’s large companies shrank by 23.5 percent to a total of around 20.3 billion euros (21.9 billion U.S. dollars) in 2020 Q1, compared to the same quarter last year.

Also on Thursday, the German Ministry of Finance said that Germany would have 81.5 billion euros (88 billion U.S. dollars) less in tax revenues in 2020 than last year due to the impact of the coronavirus crisis.

As of Friday, Germany has reported a total of 174,478 confirmed COVID-19 cases, with 7,884 deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.»

* * * * * * *

Se è vero che il lockdown si è stretto prevalentemente a partire dal mese di aprile, già a marzo vi erano state aziende che avevano sospeso il lavoro e, soprattutto, la situazione economica tedesca era, ed è tuttora, in una fase recessiva. Il pil è infatti immobile, stagnante, da più di un anno, e tutti gli altri indicatori erano per nulla buoni.

La produzione industriale crolla in Germania e Francia.

«A marzo meno 9,2% a Berlino e -16,2% a Parigi»

Germania. Marzo. Export -11.8%.

Germania. Marzo. Produzione Industriale -9.2% mese su mese.

Germania. Aprile. PMI composito 17.4, PMI servizi 16.2.

Germania. Marzo. Ordini alle Fabbriche -15.6% mese su mese.

Germania. 10.1 milioni di lavoratori in Kurzarbeit.

Germania. PMI del settore manifatturiero a 34.5. Da più di un anno è sotto il 50.

Germania. 50,000 negozi si preparano a dichiarare bancarotta.

Germania. Ripresa dopo grave recessione sarà lenta – [Bundesbank]

Germania. Indice GfK -23.4.

Germania. ZEW. Sentiment 28.2. ZEW Condizioni economiche -91.5.

Se si è contenti per la situazione tedesca, si continua a restare perplessi di fronte ad un calo così apparentemente modesto del pil. Verosimilmente molti fattori sono stati riportati al secondo trimestre.

«would fall by 9.8 percent in the second quarter (Q2)»

Ma la ripresa sembrerebbe non prospettarsi molto facile.

«the German Ministry of Finance said that Germany would have 81.5 billion euros (88 billion U.S. dollars) less in tax revenues in 2020»