Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, India, Senza categoria

India. Aprile. Consumi elettrici -24%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-05-13.

2020-05-11__India GDP 001

«The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in India was worth 2800 billion US dollars in 2019, according to official data from the World Bank and projections from Trading Economics. The GDP value of India represents 2.31 percent of the world economy. …

GDP in India is expected to reach 2950.00 USD Billion by the end of 2020, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the India GDP is projected to trend around 3100.00 USD Billion in 2021 and 3200.00 USD Billion in 2022, according to our econometric models» [Fonte]

Questi erano dati e previsioni a fine 2019. Poi ha preso campo la pandemia da Covid-19, con conseguenti lockdown, sia pure parziali.

Fitch Solution cuts India’s FY21 GDP growth forecast to 1.8%.

«Fitch Solutions on Monday cut India’s economic growth forecast for the financial year 2020-21 to 1.8 per cent saying private consumption is likely to contract due to large-scale loss of income in the face of worsening domestic outbreak of COVID-19.

“Over the past week, we have continued to adjust down our country-specific real GDP growth forecasts on the back of persistent low oil prices and the widening spread of COVID-19. Our forecasts remain fluid and, even despite the recent downward revisions, we believe that the risks remain skewed to the downside,” the rating agency said.

For India, it said the real GDP growth rate for 2020-21 (April 2020 to March 2021) has been revised down to 1.8 per cent from 4.6 per cent, previously.

“We now expect private consumption to contract, versus a weak expansion previously, due to large scale loss of income across the economy in the face of a worsening domestic outbreak of COVID-19,” it said.

Fitch Solutions also anticipated a deeper contraction in fixed investments as businesses choose to cut back on capital expenditure to conserve cash amid elevated economic uncertainty.

“The slow roll-out of fiscal stimulus by the central government will only exacerbate India’s economic woes,” it added.

For China, it revised downwards its 2020 real GDP forecast to 1.1 per cent from 2.6 per cent previously, to reflect the impact of a worsening global economic outlook.

“Real GDP (of China) contracted by a sharp 6.8 per cent y-o-y in Q1 2020, and our current forecast reflects our view that private consumption and net exports will continue to drag heavily,” it said. “Meanwhile, targeted fiscal stimulus should see fixed investment growth come in relatively flat, while strong government consumption will provide the bulk of support and prevent a full-year contraction in 2020.”»

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L’attuale situazione del sistema economico indiano può essere ben rappresentato dai dati sui consumi energetici.

«Overall electricity use fell by about 24% in April, the data from POSOCO showed, as all industries and offices not categorized “essential” were shut as a part of a nationwide lockdown to prevent the spread of the coronavirus»

«Industries and commercial plants account for over half of India’s annual consumption of electricity, with residences making up nearly a quarter and agriculture accounting for over a sixth.»

«Consumption in industrial states fell steeply, with states such as Gujarat and Tamil Nadu recording a fall of about 30%, while Maharashtra’s fell over 20%.»

«Electricity generation from coal – India’s primary source of electricity – fell 32.3% to 1.91 billion units per day, the data showed, with its contribution to overall electricity generation falling to 65.5%, compared with an average of over 73.7% last year. »

«India – the world’s second-largest consumer, importer and producer of coal and the third-largest greenhouse gas emitter – expects to remain heavily dependent on coal for electricity»

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Prendiamo atto che il lockdown da Covid-19 ha indotto un calo dei consumi elettrici del 24% in aprile.

Tenendo conto che la produzione industriale ed il commercio rendono conto di circa la metà dei consumi elettrici, si potrebbe inferire che tali settori si siano contratti del -12%.

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India doubles down on solar, gas at coal’s expense as electricity use falls

India’s solar and gas-fired electricity generation rose in April even as overall power demand fell at the steepest monthly rate in at least thirteen years, a Reuters analysis of provisional government data showed.

Solar-powered electricity generation rose 16.9%, accounting for a record 5.6% of the country’s total output, while gas-fired power output was 13.7% higher, an analysis of daily load despatch data from state-run power operator POSOCO showed. However, wind-powered electricity generation fell 11.4%.

Electricity generation from coal – India’s primary source of electricity – fell 32.3% to 1.91 billion units per day, the data showed, with its contribution to overall electricity generation falling to 65.5%, compared with an average of over 73.7% last year.

“Solar production was ramped up in the southern states, while gas-fired power plant operators in the west used cheap imported gas to address peak demand,” a senior power ministry official said, adding that many coal-fired utilities were shut for maintenance.

India – the world’s second-largest consumer, importer and producer of coal and the third-largest greenhouse gas emitter – expects to remain heavily dependent on coal for electricity but has pledged that clean energy will account for at least 40% of its installed capacity by 2030, up from about 22% now.

Overall electricity use fell by about 24% in April, the data from POSOCO showed, as all industries and offices not categorized “essential” were shut as a part of a nationwide lockdown to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

With the lockdown extended with certain relaxations for another two weeks, state-run Coal India Ltd might face higher inventory and lower sales, while Indian utilities could face more financial stress.

Utilities were suffering from a prolonged industrial slowdown before the pandemic struck, with electricity demand rising only 1.2% during the fiscal year ending March 2020 – the second slowest growth rate since 1984/85.

Industries and commercial plants account for over half of India’s annual consumption of electricity, with residences making up nearly a quarter and agriculture accounting for over a sixth.

Ratings agency Moody’s unit ICRA expects annual power demand to fall for the first time during the year ended March 2021, while losses at state-run electricity distribution utilities (DISCOMs) are set to rise to 500 billion rupees ($6.6 billion).

Barring two hilly states in the country’s north east with little industrial load, power use fell across all regions, the data showed. Consumption in industrial states fell steeply, with states such as Gujarat and Tamil Nadu recording a fall of about 30%, while Maharashtra’s fell over 20%.