Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Stati Uniti

Usa. Goldman Sachs prevede un pil Q2 a -34% ed un pil Q3 a +19%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-04-02.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

La Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta prevede un Pil Q1 a +2.7%.

Questo dato non tiene conto degli effetti indotti dalla pandemia da coronavirus, e come tale deve essere interpretato.

«In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 beyond its impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate the impact of COVID-19 on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.»

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Goldman Sachs avanza invece due distinte previsioni, che tengono conto degli effetti della pandemia.

Secondo Trimestre.

«The world’s largest economy will shrink an annualized 34% in the second quarter, compared with an earlier estimate of 24%, …. Unemployment will soar to 15% by mid-year, up from a previous forecast of 9%»

Terzo Trimestre.

«The economists, however, now expect a stronger recovery in the third quarter, with gross domestic product expanding 19%»

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«The new forecasts come days after President Donald Trump extended U.S. “social distancing” guidelines to contain the virus until the of April, abandoning a plan for an earlier end»

Il problema delle ipotesi di lavoro è il solito: quanto tempo duri la fase acuta della pandemia e la velocità con la quale la situazione produttiva possa tornare alla norma.

Non ci si terrorizzi dal calo del secondo trimestre, che è per sua natura temporaneo.

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Goldman Sachs says its gloomy prediction of 24% U.S. GDP contraction in Q2 wasn’t nearly grim enough

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects the U.S. economy to experience a far deeper slump than previously anticipated as the coronavirus pandemic hammers businesses, causing a wave of mass unemployment.

The world’s largest economy will shrink an annualized 34% in the second quarter, compared with an earlier estimate of 24%, economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a report. Unemployment will soar to 15% by mid-year, up from a previous forecast of 9%, they wrote.

The economists, however, now expect a stronger recovery in the third quarter, with gross domestic product expanding 19%.

“Our estimates imply that a bit more than half of the near-term output decline is made up by year-end,” they wrote. While there’s a risk of longer-term fallout on income and spending, the aggressive action by the Federal Reserve and the government should help to contain this.

The new forecasts come days after President Donald Trump extended U.S. “social distancing” guidelines to contain the virus until the of April, abandoning a plan for an earlier end.

Several major U.S. retailers are halting pay for hundreds of thousands of workers as they struggle to cope with the slump in demand caused by measures to control the spread of the pandemic. The White House and congressional Democrats are preparing for a fourth round of economic stimulus to get the U.S. through the outbreak.