Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Slovakia. Il 29 febbraio terrà le elezioni politiche. Grandi incertezze.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-02-04.

2020-01-30__Slovakia 001

«there is a real chance of the far-right victory»

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«Saranno 25 i partiti politici, movimenti e coalizioni che hanno presentato i loro candidati per le elezioni del 2020, come comunicato dal ministero degli Interni una volta scaduti i termini, domenica a mezzanotte. Entro lo stesso termine i partiti politici hanno dovuto pagare un deposito elettorale per un importo di 17.000 euro, che sarà loro restituito se otterranno almeno il 2% dei voti. Per la campagna elettorale, iniziata ufficialmente il 5 novembre, i partiti possono spendere un massimo di 3 milioni di euro (IVA inclusa). Ciascun partito deve disporre di un conto bancario trasparente, che viene regolarmente aggiornato nell’apposita sezione del sito del ministero degli Interni» [Buongiorno Slovacchia]

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La situazione politica slovacca è di grande interesse per l’Europa e per l’Italia sia perché essa ha un voto in sede del Consiglio Europeo, sia perché al momento è travagliata da una severa crisi politica, accentuata da una legge elettorale proporzionale. Ma il quadro politico è fortemente frammentato: si presentano infatti ben venticinque partiti politici. Tutto potrebbe essere possibile.

Alle elezioni presidenziali del 30 marzo 2019:

«Zuzana Caputova ha vinto al ballottaggio le elezioni presidenziali in Slovacchia con il 58,27 per cento dei voti. Caputova si impone sul suo rivale, il socialista Maros Sefcovic, che ha ottenuto il 41,73% dei voti. Paladina di ecologisti e minoranze e prima donna capo di Stato del Paese ha incentrato la sua campagna elettorale sull’anti-corruzione, e con un approccio più vicino all’Unione europea.» [Fonte]

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«L’avvocatessa divorziata 45enne Zuzana Caputova, leader di “Slovacchia progressiva“ – il movimento liberal anti-corruzione, anti-autocrazia ed europeista nato dalle proteste della società civile dopo l´assassinio del giornalista investigativo Jan Kuciak e della sua compagna – ha vinto di larga misura il primo turno delle elezioni presidenziali slovacche a suffragio universale, svoltesi ieri.» [Fonte]

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Alle elezioni europee 2019 la Coalition aveva ottenuto il 20.11% dei voti, lo Smer (Socialdemocrazia) il 15.72%, il Kotleba il 12.07%, il Movimento Cristiano Democratico il 9.62% e Freedom and Solidariety il 9.62%.

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La situazione attuale è, quanto meno, fluida.

«L’attuale coalizione di governo slovacca – guidata dal socialdemocratico Petr Pellegrini e formata in maniera atipica dai socialdemocratici di Smer-socialni demokracie (Smer-SD), dal Partito nazionale slovacco (Sns, schieramento populista di destra) e da Most-Hid (espressione quest’ultimo della minoranza ungherese in Slovacchia. ….

Egli non ha comunque nascosto la fragilità di un equilibrio che si basa una maggioranza di 76 deputati su 150, così ripartiti: 48 Smer, 15 Sns e 13 Most.

Si tratta d’altra parte della medesima alleanza che è riuscita a rimanere in piedi nel 2018, nonostante le imponenti manifestazioni seguite all’assassinio del giornalista di inchiesta Jan Kuciak e della sua fidanzata Martina, con migliaia di cittadini scesi in piazza a protestare contro il clima di corruzione dilagante nel paese. Una ondata di malcontento costata il posto all’allora premier Robert Fico (Smer-Sd), il quale un mese dopo l’omicidio di Kuciak, fu costretto a lasciare il posto a Pellegrini.»

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«Nel 2010, Kotleba ha lanciato ‘Kotleba – Partito Popolare La nostra Slovacchia’. In quell’anno ha ottenuto meno dell’1,5 per cento dei voti nel parlamento nazionale, ma non è bastato a scoraggiare Marián Kotleba. Ha modificato ancora una volta …. ed è stato eletto governatore della regione di Banská Bystrica nel 2013. Il suo partito è finalmente entrato nel parlamento slovacco con oltre l’8 per cento dei voti nel 2016, nonostante la derisione iniziale che aveva ricevuto dagli analisti politici.

Il sostegno a Kotleba sta crescendo, e il suo partito che di recente ha superato l’11 per cento e ora occupa due seggi nel parlamento europeo.»  [Fonte]

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Per migliorare la comprensione di questo quadro chaotico, riportiamo le definizioni delle sigle usate.

Smer – SD. Direction – Social Democracy is a social-democratic and left-wing populist political party in Slovakia. It is led by former Prime Minister of Slovakia Robert Fico. Smer-SD is the largest party in the National Council, with a plurality of 49 seats following the parliamentary Election held on 5 March 2016.

SaS. Freedom and Solidarity is a liberal, libertarian, and Eurosceptic political party in Slovakia. The party was established in 2009 and is led by its founder, the economist Richard Sulík, who designed Slovakia’s flat tax system. In the 2012 parliamentary election, the SaS lost half of its 22 seats in the National Council. The party held four positions in the government of Slovakia before the election.

Ol’aNO. Ordinary People, full name Ordinary People and Independent Personalities, is a populist, conservative political party in Slovakia. It ran four candidates on the list of the Freedom and Solidarity (SaS) party in the 2010 parliamentary election to the National Council, and all four were elected. The party is led by Igor Matovič, one of the four MPs.

SNS. The Slovak National Party is a nationalist political party in Slovakia. The party characterizes itself as a nationalist party based on both social and the European Christian values.

Kotlebovci-L’SNS. The People’s Party – Our Slovakia, formerly known as Kotleba – People’s Party – Our Slovakia, and since November 2019 officially known as Kotlebists – People’s Party Our Slovakia, is a far-right neo-Nazi political party in Slovakia. The party derives its origin from the legacy of Ľudovít Štúr, Andrej Hlinka and Jozef Tiso.

PS – Spolu. Progressive Slovakia is a social-liberal, progressive and pro-European political party in Slovakia. It was established in 2017. TOGETHER – Civic Democracy is a liberal conservative political party in Slovakia. It was established in 2018.

Za L’udì. For the People is a slovak political party founded by former Slovak president Andrej Kiska in 2019. Kiska became party’s leader on founding convention on 28 September 2019.

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How Slovakia’s far-right might pull off an election victory

A month before its general election on 29 February, Slovakia seems overwhelmed by fears that a wide-felt frustration over corruption – revealed as part of an investigation into the shocking murder of an investigative journalist in 2018 – could lead to a historic victory for far-right extremists.

The current court trial – covered in detail by all Slovak and several European media outlets – last week saw prominent oligarchs questioned about their contacts with the man accused of ordering the double killing.

Investigative reporter Jan Kuciak, 27, and his fiancée Martina Kusnirova, also 27, were shot dead in their house in Velka Maca, in West Slovakia, on 21 February 2018, just two months before their planned wedding.

The murders sparked protests across the country and forced a major cabinet reshuffle, including the resignation of prime minister Robert Fico of the ruling social democrat Smer-SD party.

Days before his death, Kuciak was finalising an article for the Aktuality.sk website about top Smer-SD links with the Italian ´Ndrangheta mafia and their agriculture business – supported by generous EU farm subsidies in eastern Slovakia.

But, following an intensive investigation, the special police team eventually arrested a group of people accused of working for Marian Kocner, a local businessman reportedly tied to high-profile members of the ruling party, as well as police officials and judges, in September 2018.

Kocner´s mobile and searches of his house provided videos, audio recordings and messages which, when published, led to political uproar and general dismay over the state of Slovakia´s police and judiciary.

Political bombshell

Smer-SD, ruling Slovakia since 2006 (apart from the 2010-2012 period of centre-right coalition government of Iveta Radicova) suffered the most political damage, as their representatives played key roles in several scandals revealed by Kocner’s private communications.

The current prime minister Peter Pellegrini, Fico’s successor as the cabinet but not party leader, has attempted to portray himself as symbolising the ‘new Smer-SD’, and is running on the pre-election campaign slogan “Responsible Change”.

And – despite the tensions between the two leaders and the negative media coverage – the party recently polled around 18 percent, which is a considerate drop on its performance in previous elections (28 percent in 2016, and 44 percent in 2012) but still in first place.

However, this pole-position could be overtaken by an unexpected competitor: the far-right extremist and anti-Europe, Popular Party of Our Slovakia (LSNS), led by Marian Kotleba, polling second on around 13 percent. The party first entered the national parliament in 2016, with eight percent of the vote.

“The trend of LSNS rise is strong and crystal-clear,” Vaclav Hřích, the AKO agency director told EUobserver. “If support for Smer-SD continues to drop as it does with every new poll, they could eventually fall behind the far-right.”

“Kuciak’s murder and all the findings along its investigation have simply shocked the people. They say that they always knew all the politicians steal a bit. But this is just too much and it can only be tackled by the overhaul of the whole political system.”

“For a growing part of the society this change should come from someone totally new, never before connected in any way with the current establishment, whether from coalition or opposition parties, whether on the right or left side of the political spectrum,” Hřích argued.

“The mere fact that they are ´new´ and never actually took part in national government is for some supporters a sufficient reason to turn a blind eye to criminal records and racist or xenophobic statements of LSNS representatives.”

Political newcomers

But there are also newcomers among some of the leading parties of the democratic opposition, which have also enjoyed a boost in popularity in the wake of the public protests following Kuciak’s murder.

The Progressive Slovakia liberal party was helped by the impressive victory of Zuzana Caputova, its candidate in the 2019 presidential elections – but then somewhat failed to keep the momentum under its new leader Michal Truban, an IT specialist and political newbie.

Former president Andrej Kiska initially sparked hopes of unifying the anti-Smer-SD opposition – but then caused some disappointment when he decided to run his new For the People party (Za ludi) alone, and not as part of a broader coalition.

Both these parties now poll at around 10 percent, followed by three to four potential coalition partners in the new government, if they get enough votes at the 29 February elections.

Statistically, this very broad coalition is still the most likely post-election scenario, Hřích suggested.

All government and opposition party leaders passionately declare they would never join forces with the hard-right LSNS.

However, Smer-SD previously coordinated their votes in the parliament with the far-right MPs on issues not supported by their current coalition partners, mainly the centre-right Most-Hid party.

“The ruling coalition is only formed after the vote, never mind the pre-election rhetoric,” commented Hřích, adding “The simple fact that there is a real chance of the far-right victory could yet prove a strong mobilisation factor for its opponents. But it is sad anyway what we have got into.”

Un pensiero riguardo “Slovakia. Il 29 febbraio terrà le elezioni politiche. Grandi incertezze.

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