Brasile. Archiviati decenni di socialismo si avvia alla rinascita economia.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-01-24.

Per cercare di comprendere cosa stia succedendo in Brasile sarebbe necessario richiamare alla mente gli ultimi due decenni, caratterizzati dal governo delle sinistre, terminati con condanne penali e destituzioni.

Mr Bolsonaro ha raccolto una nazione saccheggiata fin nel minimo dettaglio: le sinistre lo hanno depredato di tutto, ivi compresa della dignità umana.

Non solo, Mr Bolsonaro ha pagato in prima persona l’aver contrastato quello che era stato il partito egemone, che fu mandante dell’attentato quasi mortale che dovette subire.

Tutti gli organi statali e parastatali erano stati colonizzati da quella genia, che aveva formato una lobby di estremo quanto brutale potere. E sul piano internazionale, tutti i residui stati liberal gli stanno facendo una guerra sia economica sia di propaganda ingannevole.

Orbene, adesso la situazione apparirebbe in netto miglioramento.

«The Brazilian government’s fiscal outlook for this year and next continues to improve, an Economy Ministry summary of private sector forecasts on Thursday showed, which will give the government more leeway to meet its deficit targets»

«Median forecasts suggest the primary budget deficit this year, before interest rate payments are taken into account, will be 82.3 billion reais ($19.7 billion), down from 84 bln reais predicted previously, according to the Ministry’s latest ‘Prisma’ report»

«That would be significantly below the official target of 124.1 bln reais, but still mark the seventh consecutive annual deficit»

«Economists’ primary deficit forecast for 2021 is 47.2 bln reais, slightly down from 47.6 bln reais in last month’s survey, and again well below the government’s official target of a 68.5 bln reais shortfall»

«Economic activity in Brazil rose in November for the fourth month in a row, a central bank indicator showed on Thursday, pointing to fairly solid economic growth in the fourth quarter»

«The central bank’s IBC-Br economic activity index, a leading indicator of gross domestic product (GDP), rose 0.18% in November from October, more than the 0.10% median estimate in a Reuters poll of economists»

«In first 11 months of last year activity was up 0.95%, and in the year to November it was up 0.9%, the central bank said, largely in line with the growing consensus that the economy’s positive momentum accelerated into the fourth quarter from the third»

«The government this week raised its 2019 GDP growth forecast to 1.1% from 0.9% previously, and its 2020 growth outlook to 2.4% from 2.3%.»

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La diminuzione del deficit associata ad un incremento del pil proiettato al +2.4% per l’anno in corso sono ottime notizie per il Brasile.

Nel contempo ci ricordano quanto tempo e quanta fatica siano necessarie per rimediare ai guasti fatti dal socialismo.

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Brazil economic activity rises in November, points to solid fourth quarter GDP

Economic activity in Brazil rose in November for the fourth month in a row, a central bank indicator showed on Thursday, pointing to fairly solid economic growth in the fourth quarter.

The central bank’s IBC-Br economic activity index, a leading indicator of gross domestic product (GDP), rose 0.18% in November from October, more than the 0.10% median estimate in a Reuters poll of economists.

In the three months to November, activity was up 0.75%, the central bank said.

The data tie in with other indicators for November showing solid if unspectacular growth in retail sales and the dominant services sector, and are more upbeat than recent purchasing managers index (PMI) figures.

Compared with the same month a year earlier, activity rose 1.10%, the central bank said, and in the three months to November activity was up 1.71% compared with the same period a year earlier.

In first 11 months of last year activity was up 0.95%, and in the year to November it was up 0.9%, the central bank said, largely in line with the growing consensus that the economy’s positive momentum accelerated into the fourth quarter from the third.

Latin America’s largest economy expanded by 0.6% in the third quarter of last year, more than expected and prompting many economists to revise up their 2019 and 2020 growth forecasts.

The government this week raised its 2019 GDP growth forecast to 1.1% from 0.9% previously, and its 2020 growth outlook to 2.4% from 2.3%.

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Brazil government debt, deficit projections continue to fall: report

The Brazilian government’s fiscal outlook for this year and next continues to improve, an Economy Ministry summary of private sector forecasts on Thursday showed, which will give the government more leeway to meet its deficit targets.

Median forecasts suggest the primary budget deficit this year, before interest rate payments are taken into account, will be 82.3 billion reais ($19.7 billion), down from 84 bln reais predicted previously, according to the Ministry’s latest ‘Prisma’ report.

That would be significantly below the official target of 124.1 bln reais, but still mark the seventh consecutive annual deficit.

Economists’ primary deficit forecast for 2021 is 47.2 bln reais, slightly down from 47.6 bln reais in last month’s survey, and again well below the government’s official target of a 68.5 bln reais shortfall.

The report also showed that economists have reduced their forecast for Brazil’s gross national debt this year to 78% of gross domestic product from 79%. That is expected to remain steady into 2021.

Earlier this week Waldery Rodrigues, special secretary to the Economy Ministry, said Brazil’s gross debt will no longer exceed 80% of GDP, as record low official interest rates continue to reduce debt servicing costs.