Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Unione Europea

Riksbank Sweden Central Bank abbandona i tassi di interesse negativi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-12-23.

201912-23__Svezia 001

Reduci dalla débâcle di Cop25, cui si è immediatamente accodata quella della bocciatura del bilancio settennale da loro presentato, i liberal socialisti sono obbligati adesso ad accettare un altro colpo letale alla ideologia da essi professata.

Con questo sobrio annuncio la Riksbank Sweden Central Bank annuncia la fine dell’era dei tassi di interesse negativi:

Riksbank warns of rising financial stability risks in Sweden

«Sveriges Riksbank warns financial stability risks in Sweden have increased since the spring due to higher risk-taking, driven by lower-for-longer interest rates. In its financial stability report, the Swedish central bank stresses “the slowdown in the global economy has contributed to expectations of continued very low interest rates in the years ahead”. In the face of ever lower returns, market participants may be encouraged to adopt riskier investment strategies. ….»

«Sweden’s central bank is this month expected to swim against the tide of global monetary policy by raising interest rates even as the Scandinavian country’s economy softens»

«In 2009, the Riksbank, the world’s oldest central bank, became the first to charge commercial banks to hold deposits rather than pay them interest »

«A manufacturing sentiment survey published on Monday showed the lowest activity reading since 2012, the latest in a series of gloomy economic data. Growth in the third quarter was weaker than the Riksbank expected, according to figures released on Friday, which showed the economy grew 0.3 per cent compared with the previous quarter and 1.6 per cent year on year»

«Growth in both the first and second quarters was revised downwards»

«The labour market is starting to cool. It’s not a crisis but we can see a cooling off in the economy»

«Despite this, the Riksbank is set to end its experiment with negative interest rates at its pre-Christmas meeting»

«It signalled the change in late October when the world’s oldest central bank warned that a prolonged period of sub-zero rates could lead to unspecified “negative effects”, and forecast a rise from minus 0.25 per cent to zero on December 19»

«Other major central banks — notably the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank — are persisting with unprecedentedly loose monetary policy despite growing criticism about the side effects, such as penalising prudent savers, supporting zombie companies that would otherwise collapse, damaging banks’ balance sheets and inflating bubbles in property markets»

«As low interest rates for extended periods create financial vulnerabilities, I would rather see a slightly higher policy rate than a lower one »

«Negative rates can have some weird effects …. pointing to declining bank profitability, difficulties for pension funds and savers, as well as increased risk appetite»

«The Riksbank said the decision on the repo rate will apply from 8 January 2020»

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Come era da aspettarsi, tutti gli economisti gli stipendi dei quali dipendono dal mantenere i tassi di interesse negativi sono insorti adducendo tutte le possibili scuse: corrispondere tassi attivi potrebbe portare a disastri cosmici, aumentare l’inquinamento, far venire la pellagra e, sicuramente, anche impotenza e piedi piatti.

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Da che mondo è mondo chi imprestasse denaro vorrebbe avere due certezze:

– essere rifuso allo scadere del prestito;

– percepire nel tempo di vita del prestito di un interesse ragionevole ed allineato al libero mercato.

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I tassi negativi sono stati una gran bella pensata dei liberal.

Il cliente paga per lasciare liquidità in deposito.

E siccome nessuno è così folle da perseguire un’azione del genere, gli stati emettono leggi che obbligano la gente a far ciò, pena severe sentenze.

Così operando gli stati hanno avuto un lungo lasso di tempo per emettere titoli di stato a tassi negativi, con un certo quale sollievo dell’erario. I governi avrebbero dovuto utilizzare codesto tempo per mettere in opera riforme strutturali, cosa che non fecero: il debito è come la droga.

Ma ogni azione ha sempre degli effetti collaterali, che in questo caso la Riksbank pudicamente denomina “negative effects”.

Le banche vivono imprestando il denaro raccolto riscuotendone quindi gli interessi: se si obbligano i clienti a pagare per mantenere denaro liquido in conto corrente e le banche a concedere prestiti ad interessi negativi il sistema bancario e finanziario dapprima si bloccano e quindi falliscono.

Questo è quanto sta accadendo nell’Unione Europea.

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La Riksbank è la prima banca centrale a ribellarsi a questa situazione contro natura.

Adesso l’equilibrio è rotto. L’attesa è quella di un transitorio tumultuoso. Molto turbolento.

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Sweden backs away from negative rates despite softening economy

Sweden’s central bank is this month expected to swim against the tide of global monetary policy by raising interest rates even as the Scandinavian country’s economy softens. A manufacturing sentiment survey published on Monday showed the lowest activity reading since 2012, the latest in a series of gloomy economic data. Growth in the third quarter was weaker than the Riksbank expected, according to figures released on Friday, which showed the economy grew 0.3 per cent compared with the previous quarter and 1.6 per cent year on year. Growth in both the first and second quarters was revised downwards. “It’s bad timing to hike rates now,” said Christina Nyman, former deputy head of the Riksbank’s monetary policy department and now chief economist at lender Handelsbanken. “The labour market is starting to cool. It’s not a crisis but we can see a cooling off in the economy.” Despite this, the Riksbank is set to end its experiment with negative interest rates at its pre-Christmas meeting. It signalled the change in late October when the world’s oldest central bank warned that a prolonged period of sub-zero rates could lead to unspecified “negative effects”, and forecast a rise from minus 0.25 per cent to zero on December 19. Other major central banks — notably the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank — are persisting with unprecedentedly loose monetary policy despite growing criticism about the side effects, such as penalising prudent savers, supporting zombie companies that would otherwise collapse, damaging banks’ balance sheets and inflating bubbles in property markets.

Sweden’s rising house prices were flagged as a potential financial risk by the ECB in a recent report — Swedish household indebtedness is one of the highest in Europe at 180 per cent of household income, having risen from 120 per cent in the past 20 years. The Riksbank said in October that if negative rates became the norm “the behaviour of agents may change and negative effects may arise”. Deputy governor Cecilia Skingsley said: “As low interest rates for extended periods create financial vulnerabilities, I would rather see a slightly higher policy rate than a lower one.” But the minutes from the central bank’s October meeting showed that several members stressed they saw no “intrinsic value” in moving away from negative rates. Some Swedish business leaders and economists also oppose the impending policy U-turn, arguing that the economy needs more help, not less. Sweden is a small, open economy, heavily exposed to the recent weakness in the eurozone economy through manufacturing exports. The unemployment rate has been steadily increasing for much of the past 18 months, while inflation has dropped from an annual expansion in prices of 2.2 per cent in May to 1.6 per cent in October.

All this has led many economists and analysts to question the Riksbank’s justification for raising rates, especially when its counterparts at the ECB and US Federal Reserve are cutting. “It’s too late,” said Sanna Arnfjorden Wadstrom, who runs her own business in central Sweden and is also head of the Swedish industry association, Sinf. “It’s strange they are raising rates now. They have locked themselves in.” The Riksbank moved its main repo rate below zero for the first time in early 2015 as it struggled to get inflation anywhere near its 2 per cent target. Sweden’s economy expanded by 4.4 per cent that year and remained strong for the next two years as inflation gradually ticked up, leading some economists to question why the Riksbank failed to normalise monetary policy then, rather than waiting until now when signs of weakening are proliferating. “In the back of their minds, they know they could have raised interest rates earlier. But they’ve backed themselves into a corner,” said David Oxley, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics in London.

Several economists said they failed to see a strong justification for the move back to zero — where the Riksbank forecasts rates will stay for several years to come — with some wondering if it is simple unease at the prospect of a lengthy period at negative levels. Ms Nyman said: “It’s not clear why they want to hike.” Mr Oxley argued that the concerns about the consequences of negative rates for other economies failed to ring true in Sweden. “Negative rates can have some weird effects,” he acknowledged, pointing to declining bank profitability, difficulties for pension funds and savers, as well as increased risk appetite. But, he added, “none of those effects seem to be very large in Sweden”. Instead, he claimed, the likely rate rise suggested that the Riksbank was at the limits of what monetary policy can achieve; the bank already owns close to half of Sweden’s government bond market through its programme of quantitative easing. “They are the first monetary authority to throw the towel in and admit they’re pretty much out of ammunition and what ammunition they have, they don’t want to use,” he added.

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A Pioneer of Negative Rates Pauses the Experiment

Sweden’s central bank, the first to apply negative rates on deposits, moves key rate back up to zero

«Sweden’s central bank, one of the pioneers in wielding negative interest rates, became the first to end that policy Thursday, a move closely watched by other institutions that have resorted to what was supposed to be a radical and short-lived measure. 

In 2009, the Riksbank, the world’s oldest central bank, became the first to charge commercial banks to hold deposits rather than pay them interest. In 2015, it lowered its key policy rate below zero, following a similar move by the European Central Bank the year before.»

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Swedish central bank ends pioneering era of subzero rates

Sweden’s central bank has ended a five-year experiment of keeping its benchmark interest rate below zero, a policy that other countries have also adopted to try to improve economic growth.

The country’s central bank, called the Riksbank, said Thursday it had decided to raise its benchmark interest rate to zero from -0.25%, where it had been cut in 2015, amid signs that inflation has been picking up.

The bank said inflation has been close to its official target of 2% since the start of 2017, and assessed “the conditions are good for inflation to remain close to the target going forward.”

The bank said the rate was “expected to remain at 0% in the coming years.” The repo rate is the rate at which commercial banks can borrow or deposit money at the Swedish central bank.

The Riksbank set a world first in the summer of 2009, when it cut another key interest rate, its deposit rate, below zero. It then lowered the repo rate below zero in 2015.

Other central banks, including the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, have also cut rates below zero.

The use of negative rates has drawn global scrutiny as critics warn they can distort financial markets, potentially sowing the seeds of another financial crisis. Low rates, which help make borrowing cheaper and can stimulate the economy, also make it harder to save, which can mean people will have to work longer to build up enough retirement money.

The Riksbank said the decision on the repo rate will apply from 8 January 2020.