Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti, Trump

Trump. Economia chirurgica in vista delle elezioni.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-12-02.

2019-11-29__Trump 001

Occorre fare molta attenzione.

I liberal democratici governano tutti i media degli Stati Uniti, ed hanno scatenato contro il presidente Trump una campagna stampa denigratoria di portata tale che prima non si era mai vista. Serve quindi molto discernimento nel recepire le informazioni.

Una sola considerazione sull’argomento domina sovrana: più i liberal cercano di distruggere l’immagine di Trump più la inneggiano. Gli Elettori, infatti, pur di non votare Mrs Clinton hanno votato quel reprobo. Più se ne parla male, peggio ne esce Mrs Clinton, la perdente.

Il dramma dei liberal democratici consiste nel fatto che non hanno saputo esprimere una qualche personalità di spicco né, tanto meno, una chiara linea politica ed economica che fosse perseguibile nei fatti.

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Con tutta una costellazione di interventi, sia diretti della White House sia tramite le amministrazioni statali e periferiche, Mr Trump ha fatto crescere le entrate personali degli Elettori, specialmente di quelli che abitano nelle contee elettoralmente critiche. È una operazione che trova ben poco riscontro nei dati di carattere federale, quali il pil oppure il tasso di disoccupazione nazionale, che pure sono ottimi: deve essere valutata andandosi a cercare i dati uno per uno. Una operazione degna della pazienza certosina.

«More than 125 battleground counties see best growth since 1992»

«Personal income growth has been surging in some U.S. political battlegrounds, including a third of the counties in Pennsylvania — which Donald Trump narrowly flipped in 2016 and may need to win re-election next year»

«In the president’s first two years in office, a total of 325 counties representing nearly 6% of the U.S. population experienced their best annualized income gains since at least 1992»

«And 127 of those are located in perennial swing states, including Ohio and Iowa»

«While voters don’t normally track economic indicators very closely, Trump’s re-election campaign will focus on his economic record and appealing to those who are seeing the benefits of growth»

«I would expect the strength of the economy to improve the president’s chance of winning Pennsylvania in 2020»

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Cerchiamo di ragionare.

Sicuramente gli Elettori non votano esclusivamente sulla base del miglioramento del loro stato economico, ed in questo Bloomberg ha perfettamente ragione. Vi sono molti altri importanti fattori che modulano l’espressione di voto.

Tuttavia, sembrerebbe essere del tutto ragionevole pensare che Elettori economicamente soddisfatti riconfermino il presidente che ha portato loro del benessere. E questo sarà uno dei cavalli di battaglia di Mr Trump.

A riprova, l’importanza di questa argomentazione è evidenziata proprio dal comportamento dei liberal democratici, che cercano di dimostrare in ogni modo quanto il benessere economico raggiunto sia elettoralmente ininfluente.

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Si preannuncia una campagna elettorale al calor rovente.

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Personal Income Booms in States With Decisive Role in 2020 Race

– More than 125 battleground counties see best growth since 1992

– But as past elections show, voter earnings aren’t everything

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Personal income growth has been surging in some U.S. political battlegrounds, including a third of the counties in Pennsylvania — which Donald Trump narrowly flipped in 2016 and may need to win re-election next year.

In the president’s first two years in office, a total of 325 counties representing nearly 6% of the U.S. population experienced their best annualized income gains since at least 1992, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News. And 127 of those are located in perennial swing states, including Ohio and Iowa.

Bloomberg News analyzed per capita income growth in all U.S. counties going back to Bill Clinton’s first presidential term. While voters don’t normally track economic indicators very closely, Trump’s re-election campaign will focus on his economic record and appealing to those who are seeing the benefits of growth.

I would expect the strength of the economy to improve the president’s chance of winning Pennsylvania in 2020, said Boyd William Nash-Stacey, chief economist for BBVA Compass.

However, incoming data appears to be less upbeat for these areas and the tailwinds present in 2017-2018 may be giving way to more persistent headwinds, signaling a less auspicious economic environment for the president, he added.

A look at the past few decades indicates that growth in personal income, by itself, may have limited impact on voters.

Under Clinton’s second term from 1997 to 2000, 773 U.S. counties enjoyed their highest personal income growth — the second-best showing in the past 27 years. New England, in particular, benefited under his presidency with 90% of counties experiencing their best years of income growth.

Even so, Republican George W. Bush won a close victory over the Democrats in the 2000 election for the White House.

Per capita incomes — which includes wages, proprietor income, dividends, interest, rents, and government benefits — grew in 835 counties during Bush’s second term from 2004-2008, marking the strongest performance under any president since 1992.

Nevertheless, Democrat Barack Obama captured the presidency in 2008. His two terms coincided with the Great Recession — when only 225 of America’s total of about 3,100 counties had their finest years for personal-income growth.

Michael Bloomberg, founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News, announced plans on Sunday to seek the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.

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Personal Income Booms in States With Decisive Role in 2020 Race

“Personal income growth has been surging in some U.S. political battlegrounds, including a third of the counties in Pennsylvania — which Donald Trump narrowly flipped in 2016 and may need to win re-election next year. In the president’s first two years in office, a total of 325 counties representing nearly 6% of the U.S. population experienced their best annualized income gains since at least 1992, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News. And 127 of those are located in perennial swing states, including Ohio and Iowa. Bloomberg News analyzed per capita income growth in all U.S. counties going back to Bill Clinton’s first presidential term. While voters don’t normally track economic indicators very closely, Trump’s re-election campaign will focus on his economic record and appealing to those who are seeing the benefits of growth. “I would expect the strength of the economy to improve the president’s chance of winning Pennsylvania in 2020,” said Boyd William Nash-Stacey, chief economist for BBVA Compass. “However, incoming data appears to be less upbeat for these areas and the tailwinds present in 2017-2018 may be giving way to more persistent headwinds, signaling a less auspicious economic environment for the president,” he added.”