Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Cina – Usa. La guerra commerciale e dei dazi si internazionalizza.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-09-04.

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Più che guerra commerciale e dei dazi la si dovrebbe chiamare guerra per la supremazia mondiale. Il fatto che per il momento non sia combattuta con le armi non conferisce certezza alla speranza che mai ciò possa avvenire.

Un elemento di spicco nel trattare questo argomento è che quasi invariabilmente si faccia riferimento al punto di vista occidentale, spesso letto in chiave liberal, e quasi mai si prendano in considerazione le ragioni cinesi.

Similmente, si resta alquanto sorpresi come il quadro di lettura sia limitato ad dazi, mentre altri fenomeni sono forse di ben maggiore rilievo.

Wall Street sprofonda. Svalutazione del renmimbi cinese affossa i mercati

«Ieri le accuse dirette di Donald Trump via Twitter alla Cina, accusata di fare “manipolazione della valuta”, abbassando il prezzo del renmimbi (yuan) al “minimo quasi storico”»

«E nei fatti la svalutazione dello yuan provoca una pioggia di vendite a Wall Street che sprofonda.»

«Siamo quindi passati dalla guerra sui dazi commerciali per penalizzare i prodotti del Paese concorrente, alla guerra valutaria quale forma di compensazione per i forti dazi imposti dagli USA alla Cina.»

«Detto in parole povere. Se gli USA aumentano le tasse sull’importazione dei prodotti cinesi, la Cina risponde svalutando lo yuan così da mantenere i prezzi dei suoi prodotti esportati comunque competitivi.»

* * *

La risposta cinese ai dazi americani è stata in linea con la loro visione: svalutando il Renminbi hanno optato per un’azione globale, che colpisce sicuramente gli Usa ed in parte vanifica il peso di dazi maggiorati, ma in realtà è destinata ad influenzare le esportazioni cinesi in tutto il mondo.

Il 1° marzo 2019 il rapporto Usd / Yuan valeva 6.69, mentre ad oggi vale 7.14. Così facendo l’export cinese è avvantaggiato anche ben fuori dall’America: per esempio nella Unione Europea e nell’America latina.

L’International Monetary Fund stimava a fine 2017 un pil a prezzi correnti di 12,015 miliardi Usd per la Cina e 19,391 per gli Usa. L’eurozona era stimata 16,199 miliardi Usd. Ma passando al pil ppa, la Cina valeva 17,617 miliardi Usd, gli Stati Uniti 17,418, e l’eurozona 11,249. Ancora più significative le proiezioni al 2023: 37,066 miliardi Usd la Cina e 24,537 gli Usa. Ma il quadro sarebbe incompleto senza menzionare l’India con un pil ppa stimato al 2030 di 21,511 miliardi Usd, circa cinque volte maggiore di quello germanico.

Leggendo quindi i dati sui dazi alla luce di questi elementi ben si comprende come l’Occidente stia combattendo una battaglia di retroguardia, ove l’arma dei dazi dovrebbe soltanto dare un po’ di respiro alla produzione, che resta sempre in attesa di riforme strutturali. Le mappe del potere economico mondiale stanno variando rapidamente.

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«The US has imposed fresh tariffs on $112bn (£92bn) of Chinese imported goods»

«The new tariffs are a sharp escalation in the bruising trade war between the world’s two largest economies»

«The move is the first phase of US President Donald Trump’s latest plan to place 15% duties on $300bn of Chinese imports by the end of the year»

«If fully imposed, Mr Trump’s programme would mean that nearly all Chinese imports – worth about $550bn – would be subject to punitive tariffs»

«Beijing has consistently denied that it engages in unfair trade practices, and has retaliated with tariffs on $110bn of US products»

«China has retaliated with a 5% levy on crude oil, along with measures targeting $75bn of US goods. The measures included extra tariffs of 5% and 10% on nearly 1,717 targeted products»

* * *

Non ci si illuda che questa guerra commerciale resti confinata al duello Cina – Usa. Piaccia o meno, alla fine tutti dovranno schierarsi.

S.Korea’s export posts double-digit fall in August

«SEOUL, Sept. 1 (Xinhua) — South Korea’s export posted a double-digit fall last month, continuing a downward trend for the ninth consecutive month, a government report showed Sunday.

Export, which accounts for about half of the export-driven economy, diminished 13.6 percent from a year earlier to 44.2 billion U.S. dollars in August, according to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy.

The outbound shipment kept sliding for nine straight months since December last year.

Import slipped 4.2 percent over the year to 42.48 billion dollars in August, sending the trade surplus to 1.72 billion dollars. The trade balance stayed in the black for 91 months in a row.

The global trade dispute weakened world trade, hitting hard the South Korean economy that relies heavily on export for growth.»

L’annuncio è dato sobriamente da Xinhuanet. Nei media occidentali solo un mesto trafiletto.

Trade war drives ‘innocent’ Asian nations towards recession

«Rising fears about the health of the global economy have prompted talk of recession, spreading anxiety about jobs and growth.

The US-China trade war is casting a shadow over the world economy and warning signs of a looming downturn have flashed on financial markets.

Recession poses no immediate threat to the biggest economies in Asia, although they are slowing down. Yet some smaller economies in the region – including Hong Kong and Singapore – are definitely at risk.

They are what Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics, calls the “innocent bystanders” in the trade fight between Washington and Beijing.

“These are small, open economies, where trade – and trade with China – is extremely important,” says Mr Kuijs.

Here’s a look at what’s driving the slowdown in Asia’s top economies, as well as the countries at risk of recession»


Bbc. 2019-09-01. Trade war: US hits China with new wave of tariffs

The US has imposed fresh tariffs on $112bn (£92bn) of Chinese imported goods.

The new tariffs are a sharp escalation in the bruising trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

The move is the first phase of US President Donald Trump’s latest plan to place 15% duties on $300bn of Chinese imports by the end of the year.

In response, Beijing introduced tariffs on US crude oil, the first time fuel has been targeted.

If fully imposed, Mr Trump’s programme would mean that nearly all Chinese imports – worth about $550bn – would be subject to punitive tariffs.

What was initially a dispute over China’s allegedly unfair trade practices is increasingly seen as a geopolitical power struggle.

A quick guide to the US-China war

The US-China trade row in charts

So far, Washington has imposed tariffs on some $250bn of Chinese goods to pressure Beijing into changing its policies on intellectual property, industrial subsidies, market access, and the forced transfers of technology to Chinese firms.

Beijing has consistently denied that it engages in unfair trade practices, and has retaliated with tariffs on $110bn of US products.

Businesses are finding it increasingly hard to navigate the uncertainty of the long-running trade dispute.

Analysts say that in view of the latest escalation, the prospect of a resolution looks grim.

“It’s difficult at this stage to see how there can be a deal or at least a good deal,” Julian Evans-Pritchard, a senior China economist at Capital Economics, told the BBC.

“Since talks broke down back in May, the position of both sides has hardened and there have been other complications, namely the Huawei ban and Hong Kong protests, which have made it even more difficult to bridge the gap.”

The US government put Huawei on a trade blacklist in May, while President Trump has tied protests in Hong Kong to a possible trade deal with China.

What is expected on 1 September?

The US is due to impose a 15% tariff on $300bn worth of Chinese goods by the end of the year in two rounds.

The first round of duties comes into force from 1 September and analysts expect those tariffs will target imports worth about $150bn.

The Office of the United States Trade Representative would not clarify the value of goods due to be hit with tariffs this month.

Products to be targeted in September range from meat and cheese to pens and footwear.

The 15% rate supersedes the 10% originally planned and was announced last week as tensions between the two sides escalated.

China has retaliated with a 5% levy on crude oil, along with measures targeting $75bn of US goods.

The measures included extra tariffs of 5% and 10% on nearly 1,717 targeted products.

How has industry reacted?

Mr Trump has repeatedly argued that China pays for tariffs, but many US companies have rebutted that claim.

More than 200 footwear firms – including Nike and Converse – said the new duties would add to existing tariffs of up to 67% on some shoes, driving up costs for consumers by $4bn each year.

They said the incoming tariffs on footwear would “also mean these massive tax increases hit tens of millions of Americans when they purchase shoes during the holiday season”.

The American Chamber of Commerce in China also voiced concerns after the US said it was going ahead with new tariffs.

“Our members have long been clear that tariffs are paid by consumers and harm business,” it said in a statement.

“We urge… that both sides work towards a sustainable agreement as soon as possible that resolves the fundamental, structural issues foreign businesses have long faced in China.”

What’s next?

President Trump has said that trade teams from the US and China are continuing to talk and will meet in September, but further details have not been publicly confirmed.

From 15 December, the second phase of 15% tariffs will be rolled out on the remainder of Chinese good not previously affected.

This includes technology like phones and computers which President Trump has sought to protect until now.

On the same date, China will roll out tariffs on around 3,000 more US products.

The Trump administration plans, in addition, to raise the rates on existing duties from 25% to 30% on 1 October.

Mr Evans-Pritchard from Capital Economics said this rate could increase further still.

“The tariff rate could go all the way up to 45%,” he said. “Those are the goods that do the most damage to China and the least collateral damage to the US.”

For the US and Chinese economies, analysts say the pressure created by tariffs is also building.

“The full-blown trade war, together with China’s retaliation in kind, could reduce potential US GDP growth in the short run by almost 1%,” says Gary Hufbauer of the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“The impact on China would be larger, as much as 5%.”

The USTR said that, until 20 September, it would be collecting public comments on the planned tariff increases to 30%.

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How do they differ from previous tariffs?

Katie Prescott, BBC Business Reporter

It’s the American consumer who will bear the brunt of these fresh tariffs, unlike previous rounds which have hit the manufacturing sector hardest.

Nappies, dishwashers, shoes, clothes, food – looking through the 122-page list of eligible products, it’s hard to find something that’s not on there.

Many retailers say they have little choice but to pass on the cost to shoppers.

The president of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, Rick Helfenbein, describes the tariffs as like “punishing your daughter for something your son did. It makes no sense”.

The next round of tariffs on more clothes and big-ticket items like laptops and iPhones are due in December. Donald Trump says this will help to protect spending during the Christmas season.

By the end of the year, they’ll be in place on almost all of the $550bn of goods that the US buys every year from China.

And that could add up to $800 to the average household’s annual spend, according to Katheryn Russ from the University of California.