Contravvenendo ad una regola pluridecennale, Destatis, l’Istituto di Statistica tedesco, ha pubblicato un corposo report sulla situazione economica, supportato da numerose Tabelle numeriche.
È comparso il termine “stagnation”.
Si faccia molta attenzione: con la Germania è entrata in stagnazione, meglio recessione, tutta la eurozona, Italia compresa. I problemi domestici non sono più a lungo risolvibili con provvedimenti su scala locale nazionale, per quanto siano essi ben congegnati. L’Italia esporta, esportava, in Germania per esempio un largo volume di componentistica per autotrazione: ridotta la produzione tedesca, ridotto l’export italiano, indipendentemente alla sua alta qualità.
Le teorie politiche ed economiche che hanno portato a questa situazione sono diventate obsolete quanto dannose: piaccia o non piaccia.
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Il Report è troppo corposo e con un tale numero di tabelle numeriche da rendere improponibile il riportalo. Ne pubblicheremo quindi un abstract, ma si raccomanda caldamente la lettura del testo completo
«Gross domestic product (GDP), 2nd quarter of 2019
-0.1% on the previous quarter (price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted)
0.0% on the same quarter a year earlier (price adjusted)
+0.4% on the same quarter a year earlier (price- and calendar-adjusted)»
«Foreign trade slowed down growth, consumption expenditure and capital formation supported economic activity The development of foreign trade slowed down economic growth in the second quarter of 2019. After seasonal and calendar adjustment,price-adjusted exports were down 1.3% from the preceding quarter, markedly more than imports (-0.3%).
The quarter-on-quarter comparison (price-adjusted and adjusted for seasonal and calendar variations) shows that positive contributions came from domestic demand, according to provisional calculations. Household final consumption expenditure increased by 0.1% from the first quarter of 2019 and government final consumption expenditure rose by 0.5%. Capital formation was up, too. Fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment increased by 0.6% and in other fixed assets by 1.0% on the preceding quarter. Only gross fixed capital formation in construction went down in the second quarter (-1.0%), probably also because of the mild weather at the beginning of the year, which led to high growth rates for fixed capital formation in construction in the first quarter (+2.5%).
Stagnation compared with the previous year, slight increase after calendar adjustment.
Real GDP stagnated year on year. After calendar adjustment, GDP was up by 0.4% because the second quarter of 2019 had one working day less than the same quarter a year earlier. In the first quarter of 2019, real GDP was 0.8% (calendar-adjusted: 0.9%) higher than in the same quarter of the preceding year.»
«Number of persons in employment up also in 2nd quarter of 2019
The economic performance in the second quarter of 2019 was achieved by 45.2 million persons in employment, which was an increase of 435,000, or 1.0%, on a year earlier (see press release 312/19 of 20 August 2019).
Overall labour productivity (price-adjusted gross domestic product per hour worked by persons in employment) was basically on the level of the previous year, according to provisional calculations. Labour productivity per person in employment was down 0.9%.»
«Compared with a year earlier, there were mixed signals regarding domestic demand in the second quarter of 2019. Price-adjusted household final consumption expenditure rose by 1.5% and government final consumption expenditure by 1.9%. However, investment growth slowed. Compared with the second quarter of 2018, price-adjusted gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment increased by a mere 1.5%.»
«Largest decline of exports in six years
Foreign trade slowed down economic growth also in a year-on-year comparison. According to provisional calculations, price-adjusted exports were down 0.8%. This is the largest decline recorded in the last six years.»
«Gross value added down in manufacturing
On the production side of the gross domestic product, real gross value added was higher in almost all economic sectors in the second quarter of 2019 than in the second quarter of 2018. Due to the strong decline in the economic performance of manufacturing (-4.9%)»
«Strong increase in compensation of employees
At current prices, the gross domestic product increased by 2.1% and the gross national income by 2.3% in the second quarter of 2019 compared with the same quarter of 2018. Net national income at factor cost rose a total 2.7%, with the two components showing quite different trends. While the compensation of employees increased substantially (+4.5%), property and entrepreneurial income was down 1.9% according to first provisional calculations. Gross wages and salaries of employees were up 4.3% from the second quarter of 2018, net wages and salaries even 4.8%.»
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Per una corretta lettura delle tabelle e del testo, si ricordi che i dati enumerativi, per esempio il numero degli occupati, siano soggetti al solo errore insito nella definizione della classe, mentre i valori calcolati, quali per esempio il pil, siano soggetti ad un errore, proprio e propagato, che spesso raggiunge il ±1.5 punti percentuali.
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Per quanto interessa l’Italia e l’eurozona, queste frasi sono di grande interesse.
«Stagnation compared with the previous year, slight increase after calendar adjustment.»
«Real GDP stagnated year on year.»
In una situazione del genere sarebbe del tutto naturale che la Germania mutasse le sue linee di politica economica, ed i segni iniziano anche ad essere abbastanza evidenti.