Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Germania. L’Italia dovrebbe pagare la depressione tedesca….

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-08-14.

Botticelli. Le Tre Grazie. Particolare.

Frau Ursula von der Leyen, Mrs Christine Lagard, Frau Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, Frau Angela Merkel e Mrs Kristalina Georgieva sono le cinque femmine che occupano tutti i cinque più importanti ruoli direzionali dell’Unione Europea, alla faccia dell’equa ripartizione del gender.

Comme d’habitude, ci si riserva il giudizio dopo che le signore abbiano avuto un congruo lasso di tempo per poter operare, ed auguriamo loro, ma anche a noi Contribuenti, di ottenere ampi successi.

Però constatiamo come la situazione sia drammaticamente tesa.

È in corso una guerra finanziaria ed economica tra Cina e Stati Uniti, la prima per ottenere l’egemonia economica mondiale ed i secondi per cercare di sopravvivere; negli Stati Uniti è tuttora in corso una guerra civile con i liberal democratici che cercano disperatamente di non essere completamente annientati dai tempi e da Mr Trump. In questa situazione l’Unione Europea appare dilacerata da tensioni tra quanti abbiano una visione statalista centralizzata e quanti invece sostengano il sovranismo identitario, con una feroce dicotomia tra stati occidentali continentali e quelli dell’ex est europeo e del Mediterraneo.

Ma la frammentazione politica a seguito della devoluzione dell’ideologia liberal socialista è solo la punta dell’iceberg.

Se l’Eurozona aveva nel 2008 un pil di 14,128 miliardi Usd, a fine 2018 questo parametro valeva 13,669 miliardi:per comparazione, gli Stati Uniti sono passati dai 13,814 miliardi di pil 2008 agli attuali 20,280.

Anche senza volersi addentrare nella diagnosi, il malessere dell’Unione Europea è stridentemente evidente.

È questa la realtà con la quale dovranno cimentarsi queste Cinque Grazie, prive di esperienza specifiche.

Forse però questo potrebbe essere un bene: sarebbe un certo fallimento cercare di far riprendere l’Unione Europea somministrandole i rimedi che la hanno portata al fallimento.

* * * * * * *

Inutile cercare di nascondersi dietro ad un dito.

La Germania è il motore dell’Europa, la locomotiva: impantanatasi nella depressione, trascina in essa tutta l’Unione Europea.         

Germania. Produzione industriale. -21.3% in sette mesi. È in depressione.

ECB. Se non è un ‘si salvi chi può’, ci assomiglia molto.

Germania. Produzione industriale -5.2% a/a. È depressione. – Destatis.

Germania. I segni tangibili della devoluzione liberal socialista.

Germania. Stratificazione per tipologia di reddito. Classe media estinta.

Germania. 5.3 milioni di depressi.

Merkel. Quella telefonata che allunga la vita ….

«The German trade surplus narrowed to EUR 16.8 billion in June 2019 from EUR 22.0 billion in the same month a year earlier.  Exports plunged 8 percent year-on-year to EUR 106.1 billion in June.»

* * *

A costo di ripetere cose ovvie, e ce ne si scusa, senza produzione industriale e manifatturiera, caso emblematico il settore automobilistico, l’export crolla ed i servizi soffrono per perdita dei clienti.

Se nella depressione del 1929 l’Occidente è riuscito a riemerge con le sole proprie forze, anche se a costo di una guerra mondiale, ad oggi la produzione abbandonata dalla Germania è rattamente sostituita da quella cinese, indiana e brasiliana. La possibilità di ripresa risulterebbe così una chimera.

Ma queste cinque fanciulline hanno un asso nella manica: far pagare all’Italia il risanamento della Germania.

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«The devil’s in the data»

«Fears of a major downturn in euro zone powerhouse Germany grew this week following “scary” industrial output figures for June and reports due over the coming week that will hold those concerns up to the light»

«On Wednesday, quarterly flash gross domestic product data for both Germany and the wider euro zone is released. The consensus forecast from Reuters’ poll is the euro zone GDP grew 0.2% in the second quarter but in Germany – the bloc’s largest economy – it’s expected to have shrunk 0.1%.»

«Investors are raising red flags about a euro zone recession and a resumption of European Central Bank bond buying as the escalating U.S.-China trade war hit the exporters»

«Markets are on high alert for signs Germany and other governments will use such cheap borrowing rates to support the deflation policies of their central banks»

«A report this week that Germany might issue new debt to finance climate protection caused a brief spike higher in bund yields and the euro»

«Germany eyes fiscal U-turn to finance climate protection plan -official»

Already, alarm bells are ringing: U.S. 30-year yields are flirting with record lows, and the premium on three-month Treasury bill rates over 10-year Treasury yields – a closely watched U.S. recession indicator – jumped to its highest since March 2007»«A quarter-point cut at the Fed’s next meeting on Sept. 18 is now almost fully priced»

«What seemed like a minor lurch in China’s currency has become a big deal for financial markets. Many fear it may be the beginning of a Chinese competitive devaluation in response to U.S. tariff threats, which in turn could trigger a currency war that may force other regional central banks to slash interest rates. The move also sparked fresh doubts a deal in the U.S.-Sino trade war will ever get done»

«Chinese trade data showed that, with falling imports and exports, Beijing needs a weaker currency to support its economy …. China state banks seen supporting yuan to steady declines»

«China state banks seen supporting yuan to steady declines»

«Time for a bubble to pop?»

* * * * * * *

Il cuore del problema, almeno per noi italiani ed europei, sta in questa frase:

«Germany might issue new debt to finance climate protection»

Le cinque Grazie vorrebbero in parole povere fare uscire la Germania dalla depressione finanziandola con denaro ECB pagato da tutti tranne che dalla Germania. E l’Italia ne avrebbe un onere più che severo.

Ma che belle tose!


Reuters. 2019-08-11. Take Five: The devil’s in the data

1/ READY FOR A SCARY EURO ZONE GDP SHOW?

Fears of a major downturn in euro zone powerhouse Germany grew this week following “scary” industrial output figures for June and reports due over the coming week that will hold those concerns up to the light.

On Wednesday, quarterly flash gross domestic product data for both Germany and the wider euro zone is released. The consensus forecast from Reuters’ poll is the euro zone GDP grew 0.2% in the second quarter but in Germany – the bloc’s largest economy – it’s expected to have shrunk 0.1%.

Bond markets certainly fear the worst. Ten-year bunds yield a record low of almost -0.60%. The entire German government yield curve out to 30 years is now below zero. Investors are raising red flags about a euro zone recession and a resumption of European Central Bank bond buying as the escalating U.S.-China trade war hit the exporters.

Markets are on high alert for signs Germany and other governments will use such cheap borrowing rates to support the reflation policies of their central banks. A report this week that Germany might issue new debt to finance climate protection caused a brief spike higher in bund yields and the euro.

– “Scary” German output figures propel recession fears

– Germany eyes fiscal U-turn to finance climate protection plan -official

*

2/ U.S. ECONOMY READ OUT

After an escalation of the U.S.-China trade row sparked one of the most volatile weeks of the year for U.S. stock and bond markets, investors are focusing on the U.S. economy’s ability to absorb a tariff war with some critical health checks on Thursday.

Already, alarm bells are ringing: U.S. 30-year yields are flirting with record lows, and the premium on three-month Treasury bill rates over 10-year Treasury yields – a closely watched U.S. recession indicator – jumped to its highest since March 2007. Some analysts now see a more than 50% chance the longest-ever U.S. economic expansion could slip into a recession within 12 months. PIMCO, one of the world’s biggest bond investors, talked of the possibility of negative Treasury yields.

U.S. July consumer price inflation, due Tuesday, has been tame in recent years and consistently below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Fed chair Jerome Powell said the strong tie between unemployment and inflation was broken 20 years ago and the relationship “has become weaker and weaker and weaker.”

But market watchers are in for deluge of data on Thursday: July retail sales, industrial production, the August Philadelphia Fed index and NAHB housing market indicator are coming. So are weekly jobless numbers and the June TIC data update on the breakdown of Treasury holdings

A quarter-point cut at the Fed’s next meeting on Sept. 18 is now almost fully priced. Markets see one chance in four of a larger 50-basis-point rate cut next month.

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3/ SMALL MOVE, BIG DEAL

What seemed like a minor lurch in China’s currency has become a big deal for financial markets. Many fear it may be the beginning of a Chinese competitive devaluation in response to U.S. tariff threats, which in turn could trigger a currency war that may force other regional central banks to slash interest rates. The move also sparked fresh doubts a deal in the U.S.-Sino trade war will ever get done.

That 2-plus-something percent slide in the heavily managed yuan has pushed it to 2008 lows and to the weaker side of 7 per dollar. Beijing is saying it’s merely letting market forces drive the yuan, not weaponizing the currency, and has done its best through open market operations to contain the move. Chinese trade data showed that, with falling imports and exports, Beijing needs a weaker currency to support its economy.

Yet the yuan’s drop has set in motion scarier prospects: more geopolitical and business ruptures and threats between the world’s two biggest economies. That is being borne out in plunging stocks and bond yields, tumbling emerging-market currencies and a flight to the safety of dollars, gold, bitcoin and yen.

Markets are watching the back and forth between Washington and Beijing, accusations of currency manipulation, plus the mounting pressure on the Fed to cut rates again. In addition, there is the question of how Beijing will manage expectations around its currency so it doesn’t spark a flight of domestic and foreign capital.

– China state banks seen supporting yuan to steady declines – sources

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4/ IT’S GETTING FROTHY DOWN THE LONG END

The markets rout after an escalation in the U.S.-China trade war marked new milestones for many assets, and government bonds were no exception.

As investors piled into safe-haven assets, Germany’s 30-year bond yield hit a record low, Ireland’s 10-year bond yield turned negative, and the Netherlands became the latest to join that growing club of countries with entire yield curves drowning in sub-zero territory.

The evaporation of global yield is pushing investors further out the maturity spectrum. Austria’s 100-year bond is up some 63% year-to-date, with a vertical price chart harking back to similar surges in cryptocurrencies and tech stocks.

Austria’s century bond only highlights a broader trend: the yield on the Bloomberg Barclays Multiverse index for global bonds with maturities of seven to 10 years hit a record low of 1.44% this week.

Going “long” U.S. Treasuries has featured as what fund managers think is the “most-crowded trade” for two months straight in a Bank of America Merrill Lynch survey. That could prove a bad omen – assets named “most crowded” usually sink soon afterwards. Time for a bubble to pop?

– Soaring prices in super-long euro bonds ape crypto, tech surges

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