Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Germania. Destatis. Crollo persone in età lavorativa dai 51.8m ai 40m nel 2035.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-07-12.

Destatis__001

Destatis, l’Istituto di Statistica tedesco ha rilasciato il report

Working-age population expected to decrease by 4 to 6 million by 2035

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«In the next 20 years, the current age structure will definitely lead to a decrease in the working-age population and to an increase in the number of older people»

«In 2018, 51.8 million people in Germany were at working age between 20 and 66 years»«»

«By 2035, the working-age population will fall by roughly 4 to 6 million, reaching 45.8 to 47.4 million»

«Without net immigration, the working-age population would decline by roughly 9 million already by 2035»

«The number of people aged 67 or over rose by 54% from 10.4 million in 1990 to 15.9 million in 2018»

«Until 2039, that number will grow by another 5 to 6 million, reaching at least 21 million people»

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Alla fuga della grande industria, che delocalizza, corrisponde sicuramente una diminuzione del numero dei relativi addetti. Tuttavia il tessuto produttivo di una nazione è composto solo in via marginale dagli addetti alla grande industria.

Tuttavia, senza industria produttiva dovrebbero essere ridimensionate anche le aspettative nei confronti del welfare.

Resta poi il problema della sempre più pressante carenza di personale nelle fasce alte: magistrati, avvocati e liberi professionisti in senso lato, medici ed infermieri, meccanici per autoriparazioni, idraulici ed elettricisti se non altro per la manutenzione negli immobili abitativi, per non parlare del corpo insegnante nelle scuole e nelle università, etc.

E questi sono tutti profili professionali di alto livello, per i quali è mandatorio il tedesco fluente. In questi settori  migranti servono a ben poco.

Né ci si illuda che il problema sia solo tedesco. Una decrescita della Germania trascinerebbe quella dell’itera Unione Europea.   


Working-age population expected to decrease by 4 to 6 million by 2035

WIESBADEN – Population ageing in Germany will continue to increase despite high net immigration and growing birth rates. In the next 20 years, the current age structure will definitely lead to a decrease in the working-age population and to an increase in the number of older people. The future development of demographic factors such as fertility, life expectancy and net immigration will not be able to stop these processes. This is the main result of the 14th coordinated population projection presented by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) at a press conference in Berlin on 27 June 2019.

In 2018, 51.8 million people in Germany were at working age between 20 and 66 years. By 2035, the working-age population will fall by roughly 4 to 6 million, reaching 45.8 to 47.4 million. Then it will stabilise and subsequently decrease to 40 to 46 million by 2060, depending on the level of net immigration.

Without net immigration, the working-age population would decline by roughly 9 million already by 2035.

Older population groups will continue to grow

The number of people aged 67 or over rose by 54% from 10.4 million in 1990 to 15.9 million in 2018. Until 2039, that number will grow by another 5 to 6 million, reaching at least 21 million people, and will then remain rather stable until 2060.

The number of people aged 80 or over will increase from 5.4 million in 2018 to 6.2 million already in 2022 and will then remain at that level until the early 2030s. In the subsequent 20 years, however, it will continuously rise and reach 8.9 to 10.5 million in 2050, depending on the assumed development of life expectancy.

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