Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Unione Europea

Croazia. Il rating sale al livello ‘investiment grade’. BBB.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-06-10.

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Nel 2015 il pil croato era 49.5 miliardi Usd, ma a fine 2018 si era portato a 60.8 miliardi: una gran bella crescita.

Questo miglioramento della situazione economica trova adesso riscontro nel giudizio positivo che ne esprimono le società di rating.

«Fitch Ratings raised Croatia’s credit score to investment-grade level, making it the second major rating company to bring the Adriatic Sea country out of junk-bond status since March»

«The sovereign rating was upgraded by one notch to BBB-, with a positive outlook, from BB+»

«The move puts Croatia on par with Russia and fellow EU member Romania. S&P Global Ratings lifted Croatia to investment-grade status in March, while Moody’s Investors Service rates it at Ba2, with a positive outlook»

«The move puts Croatia on par with Russia and fellow EU member Romania. S&P Global Ratings lifted Croatia to investment-grade status in March, while Moody’s Investors Service rates it at Ba2, with a positive outlook»

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Il rating è una attribuzione variabile nel tempo, perché indica, o dovrebbe indicare, il grado di affidabilità dello strumento cui inerisce. Al variare della affidabilità varia di conserva il rating.

Nel caso di reddito fisso, solitamente si considera come soglia limite inferiore il rating BBB.

Questa soglia è altrettanto solitamente rispettata dagli investitori istituzionali, che non acquisiscono titoli di stato a rank inferiori, a tutela dei propri investimenti.

Questo è uno dei motivi di soddisfazione per la Croazia, e con lei per tutta la Unione Europea.


Bloomberg. 2019-06-08. Croatia Gets Second Investment-Grade Rating as Fitch Follows S&P

– Credit rating raised one notch to BBB- with positive outlook

– Upgrade reflects fiscal tightening and falling debt levels

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Fitch Ratings raised Croatia’s credit score to investment-grade level, making it the second major rating company to bring the Adriatic Sea country out of junk-bond status since March.

The sovereign rating was upgraded by one notch to BBB-, with a positive outlook, from BB+, Fitch said on Friday, citing the European Union member’s efforts in lowering public debt, balancing the budget, and improving economic growth. The move puts Croatia on par with Russia and fellow EU member Romania. S&P Global Ratings lifted Croatia to investment-grade status in March, while Moody’s Investors Service rates it at Ba2, with a positive outlook.

“Fitch expects fiscal dynamics to remain on a positive trajectory over the medium term, underpinned by confidence in the authorities’ track record and commitment to continued fiscal consolidation, improvements in the fiscal framework and stable macroeconomic conditions,” it said in a statement.

Croatia has balanced the budget in recent years and slashed public debt faster than prescribed by Maastricht criteria, which Zagreb is trying to fulfill so it can join the euro area in the next decade. The economy is predicted to grow just under 3% this year. The efforts by the government of Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic have resulted in the country’s emerging out of junk status where it was demoted to in 2012 amid a record recession.

The nation exited the EU’s procedure on excessive economic imbalances in April. Central bank Governor Boris Vujcic said he expects Zagreb to send a letter of intent to join the ERM-2, the euro zone’s waiting room, by July.

Fitch forecast Croatia’s real GDP growth to average 2.4% in 2019-20, lower than the current BBB median of 3.1% but enough to finally return to the pre-crisis output level by 2020. Given modest planned public wage increases over the next two years, Fitch now expects inflation to average only 1% in 2019-20.

Finance Minister Zdravko Maric said in March that the government may hold a roadshow for international bond investors before the summer.