Giuseppe Sandro Mela.
«The Brexit Party has more support in the U.K. ahead of this month’s EU elections than the Conservatives and Labour combined, according to an Opinium survey for the Observer newspaper»
«The party, fronted by Nigel Farage and founded only last month, would take 34% of the vote in the May 23 election, compared with 21% for Labour and just 11% for Theresa May’s Conservatives»
«A separate poll by the same organization, asking how people would vote in the event of a general election, also makes grim reading for May’s administration»
«The Conservatives, on 22%, trail Labour in that survey by six percentage points and lead the Brexit party by just one point»
«One of the main claims made by Farage, formerly of the right-wing UK Independence Party (UKIP), is that millions of Britons would desert the two main parties for the new Brexit Party if May and Corbyn reach a consensus»
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«The poll has Labour winning 27 percent of the vote, with Farage’s party on 20 percent and the Conservatives on 19 percent. However, Britain’s first-past-the-post voting system would see the Tories get 179 seats in the House of Commons, far behind Labour on 316 but way ahead of the Brexit Party on 49»
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Di questi tempi il lavoro delle società di sondaggi e previsioni elettorali è singolarmente difficile.
L’Elettorato europeo evidenzia una incredibile mobilità di voto, così che le previsioni restano valide solo un breve lasso di tempo. Si aggiunga poi una incertezza di collocamento difficilemnte vista in passato.
Una cosa è dare delega ai deputati, ed una del tutto differente è dargliela in bianco.
Tuttavia, questo sembrerebbe essere un buon segno: i Cittadini Elettori europei stanno dimostrando una vitalità politica e democratica prima mai vista. Sicuramente stanno percependo la portata del loro voto ed altrettanto sicuramente ben poco si fidano ancora dei partiti tradizionali. propalatori di paroloni altisonanti senza un reale contenuto operativo. È tre anni che si baloccano con la Brexit.
Ma questi dati, da pigliarsi con enorme buon senso, trascendono la problematica contingente della Brexit.
Se non stupisce più di tanto un Brexit Party al 34%, il dato sconcertante è quanto sia oramai diffusa la disaffezione dai partiti tradizionali.
Leggere che nel Regno Unito il Partito Conservatore sarebbe stimato essere attorno all’11% non può non dare ampi motivi di riflessione.
Se si andasse al voto politico, oggi nel Regno Unito i laburisti otterrebbero 316 collegi, contro i 179 dei conservatori ed i 49 del Brexit Party.
Se queste prospezioni trovassero conferma nei risultati delle urne, cosa tutt’altro che scontata, la componente britannica in seno al nuovo europarlamento sarebbe per larga quota formata da euroscettici viscerali, con tutte le conseguenze del caso.
Da ultimo ma non certo per ultimo, questi dati formulano un giudizio realistico sull’operato di Mrs May.
Bloomberg. 2019-05-12. Brexit Party Has More Support Than Britain’s Main Parties: Poll
– Tories ranked in fourth place before May 23 European election
– Conservative rank-and-file plans to back Farage’s new party
The Brexit Party has more support in the U.K. ahead of this month’s EU elections than the Conservatives and Labour combined, according to an Opinium survey for the Observer newspaper.
The party, fronted by Nigel Farage and founded only last month, would take 34% of the vote in the May 23 election, compared with 21% for Labour and just 11% for Theresa May’s Conservatives. The Liberal Democrats would get 12%.
A separate poll by the same organization, asking how people would vote in the event of a general election, also makes grim reading for May’s administration. The Conservatives, on 22%, trail Labour in that survey by six percentage points and lead the Brexit party by just one point.
Another survey, by the Conservative Home website and published in the Times, suggested three in five Tory members were planning to back Farage’s group in the EU vote.
And the Telegraph, which has long backed the idea of a hard Brexit, published a letter from 600 assorted Conservatives from the shires in which they warn that if May can’t deliver a clean departure from the EU, members of Parliament should replace her or “risk disaster.”
May and Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn are scheduled to hold more talks next week to try to find a Brexit compromise, but getting any deal through Parliament will be tough.
One of the main claims made by Farage, formerly of the right-wing UK Independence Party (UKIP), is that millions of Britons would desert the two main parties for the new Brexit Party if May and Corbyn reach a consensus.
The Guardian. 2019-05-12. Brexit party may get more EU election votes than Tories and Labour combined – poll
Opinium poll on European election voting intentions suggests surge of support for Nigel Farage’s party.
Nigel Farage’s Brexit party is on course to secure more support at the European elections than the Tories and Labour combined, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.
In the most striking sign to date of surging support for Farage, the poll suggests more than a third of voters will back him on 23 May. It puts his party on 34% of the vote, with less than a fortnight before the election takes place.
The poll suggests support for the Conservatives has collapsed amid the Brexit uncertainty, with Theresa May’s party on just 11%. Labour is a distant second, on 21%. The Lib Dems perform the best of any of the openly anti-Brexit parties, one point ahead of the Tories on 12% of the vote.
With the Brexit party securing more than three times the level of support for the Tories, the poll confirms the concerns of senior Conservatives that it is haemorrhaging support as Brexit remains unresolved. Just a fortnight ago, the Brexit party was neck-and-neck with Labour on 28%. Now it has a 13-point lead over Jeremy Corbyn’s party.
May should reveal her departure date next week, Brady says
Read moreThe Conservatives are now only narrowly ahead of the Brexit party when voters are asked who they would vote for at a general election. The Tories are on 22% support, down 4% on a fortnight ago, with the Brexit party on 21% backing. Labour leads on 28%, but is down five points on the last poll.
Leave voters seem to be flocking to the Brexit party. A fortnight ago, it was joint first with the Conservatives among leave voters in terms of general election voting, with both on 33%. It now appears to be the clearer choice of leave voters, with 40% saying they will vote for the Brexit party and 27% backing the Conservatives.
May is also close to losing her lead over Corbyn as to who voters regard as the best prime minister. Her lead has dropped from four points to just one point.
The Opinium poll also found that despite the dominance of Brexit as an issue since the 2016 referendum, there was a significant proportion of voters who did not know each party’s position on it. The poll reveals 36% are not aware of the Conservative party’s stance, while 38% say the same about Labour.
For those who said they knew, 23% think the Conservatives support a soft Brexit, while 23% think they support a hard Brexit. For the Labour party, 25% think they support remaining in the EU, while 31% think they support a soft Brexit.
Opinium polled 2,004 people online between 8-10 May.
Politico. 2019-05-12. Farage’s party set for massive gains in EU, general elections: polls
Survey has Brexit Party getting more EU election votes than the Tories and Labour combined.
Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is on course for major success in the European election later this month, and would alter the landscape of British politics if a general election were held in the U.K., according to new polling.
A poll by Opinium for the Observer puts the Brexit Party on 34 percent of the vote — more than the Conservative and Labour parties combined — in the EU election in late May. That’s an increase of 6 percentage points for Farage’s party since the last Opinium poll, on April 23.
Labour comes in second on 21 percent (down 7 percentage points since April), with the Tories on 11 percent of the vote, in fourth place behind the Liberal Democrats. The new pro-Remain party Change UK is on 3 percent support, behind the Greens, UKIP and the Scottish National Party. Opinium polled 2,004 people online between May 8-10.
According to POLITICO’s own polling, Labour will win 21 seats in the European Parliament, with the Brexit Party picking up 16 and the Tories 12.
Another poll, in the Telegraph, makes even bleaker reading for the Tories. It has the Conservatives led by Theresa May finishing third in terms of vote share if a U.K. general election were held now, behind Labour and the Brexit Party.
The poll has Labour winning 27 percent of the vote, with Farage’s party on 20 percent and the Conservatives on 19 percent. However, Britain’s first-past-the-post voting system would see the Tories get 179 seats in the House of Commons, far behind Labour on 316 but way ahead of the Brexit Party on 49.
The Telegraph poll, while worrying for the Conservatives, is hypothetical. The next U.K. general election is not scheduled until 2022 (although an early election could be called at any time), and May has pledged that she won’t be Tory leader during that ballot. The 2,034 adults surveyed on Thursday were asked to give their opinion based on May leading the Tories in the next general election.
The polling was carried out by ComRes and Brexit Express, a campaign group run by Jeremy Hosking, a Tory donor who has given a substantial sum to Farage’s new party.