Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Energie Alternative, Ideologia liberal, Senza categoria

Svezia. Olimpiadi in forse per carenza produzione energia. – Bloomberg

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-07.

2019-05-05__Sweden__001

«Global trade wars and weakening export markets are not the only potential dampers on Sweden’s growth»

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«There’s also a homegrown problem: a lack of power capacity.»

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«The dire situation stems from the closing of the nation’s oldest reactors and a shift to wind at a time when the grid is already struggling to keep up with demand in major cities»

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«The shortage, which impacts the nation’s main urban areas, is threatening everything from the rollout of a 5G network in the capital to investments in giant data halls and new subway lines»

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«It could even derail Stockholm’s bid for the 2026 Winter Olympics»

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«Citizens and companies are worried, irritated and even angry, …. How could this situation arise in the engineering nation of Sweden?»

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«The answer is a very ambitious green agenda. Sweden is halfway through a plan to replace the output from four reactors in the industrial south with thousands of wind turbines in the north»

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«abundance of carbon-free power from hydro, nuclear and wind has attracted billions of dollars in the past decade»

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Il problema è semplicissimo.

Come si conviene ai liberal socialisti, l’ideologia impone il passaggio dal nucleare e dal carbone alle energie alternative.

Tralasciamo volutamente i problemi di costo, che però per un’economia quasi stagnante potrebbero essere non da poco.

Il sud della Svezia è la zona ad alta concentrazione industriale, e quindi richiede energia nelle ore lavorative. Non a caso le centrali atomiche sono locate nel sud della Svezia, così come quelle a carbone ed a gas naturale.

Ma al sud i venti sono deboli, capricciosi ed incerti: senza vento non si genera corrente elettrica.

Gli svedesi hanno quindi optato per mettere gli impianti eolici nel nord del paese. Le turbine in grado di lavorare a basse temperature sono costose, sicuramente sì, e richiedono anche grandi manutenzioni, ma cosa non si immolerebbe sull’altare delle energie alternative.

Resta il problema, a quanto sembrerebbe alquanto scotomizzato dagli ingegneri progettisti, di come poter portare l’energia prodotta al nord fino al sud industrializzato.

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Energia. Il problema degli elettrodotti a lunga distanza. Le dissipazioni.

«First, electricity travels on long-distance, high-voltage transmission lines, often miles and miles across country. The voltage in these lines can be hundreds of thousands of volts. You don’t want to mess with these lines.»

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«Why so much voltage? To answer this question, we need to review some high school physics, namely Ohm’s law. Ohm’s law describes how the amount of power in electricity and its characteristics – voltage, current and resistance – are related. It boils down to this: Losses scale with the square of a wire’s current. That square factor means a tiny jump in current can cause a big bump in losses. Keeping voltage high lets us keep current, and losses, low»

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«Energy lost in transmission and distribution: About 6% – 2% in transmission and 4% in distribution – or 69 trillion Btus in the U.S. in 2013»

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Non si è infatti “liberi” di poter costruire una centrale elettrica dove si voglia: occorre piazzare gli impianti ove i venti siano persistenti e non troppo veloci. In altri termini, le sedi di produzione sono quindi obbligate.

Questo comporta necessariamente linee di trasmissione anche molto lunghe: in taluni casi si parla di migliaia di kilometri. La dissipazione in questi casi aumenta a dismisura.

Si pensi soltanto al trasferimento di energia dal Mecklenburg-Vorpommern al Bayern: sono circa 700 kilometri.

La dissipazione è enorme: oltre il cinquanta per cento.

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Siamo estasiati che gli ingegneri svedesi abbiano riscoperto la legge di Ohm.

Ma saremo ancor più esaltati quando avranno studiato un minimo di contabilità dei costi: rifare il grid svedese costerà non uno ma tre occhi delle testa.

Gli svedesi avrebbero un gran bisogno di passare uno dei loro famosi inverni al buio e senza riscaldamento ed acqua calda.


Bloomberg. 2019-05-03. Sweden’s Lack of Electricity Capacity Is Threatening Growth

A shift toward renewables is overwhelming the nation’s grid, leaving a potential Olympic Games in 2026 relying on reserve generators.  

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Global trade wars and weakening export markets are not the only potential dampers on Sweden’s growth. There’s also a homegrown problem: a lack of power capacity. 

The dire situation stems from the closing of the nation’s oldest reactors and a shift to wind at a time when the grid is already struggling to keep up with demand in major cities. The shortage, which impacts the nation’s main urban areas, is threatening everything from the rollout of a 5G network in the capital to investments in giant data halls and new subway lines. It could even derail Stockholm’s bid for the 2026 Winter Olympics.

It’s a stark change from the decades of cheap, surplus electricity that propelled the Nordic region’s biggest economy into one of the richest and most industrialized nations in the world. Now, electricity supplies in urban areas can’t keep up and that could exacerbate a slowdown already impacted by global uncertainty and Brexit.

“Citizens and companies are worried, irritated and even angry,” said Jonas Kamleh, a strategist for the City of Malmo, the nation’s third biggest. “How could this situation arise in the engineering nation of Sweden?”

The answer is a very ambitious green agenda. Sweden is halfway through a plan to replace the output from four reactors in the industrial south with thousands of wind turbines in the north. But grid connections, some dating back to the 1950s, aren’t up to scratch so the power isn’t shipped to where it’s really needed. And to make matters worse, city demand is surging at a faster-than-expected pace because of the electrification of everything from transport to heating.

The capacity issues could hit an economy already heading south after years of strong growth buoyed by household spending and exports. The Swedish National Institute of Economic Research said last month the economy is slowing and forecast GDP growth of just 1.5 percent this year compared with 2.3 percent in 2018.

The abundance of carbon-free power from hydro, nuclear and wind has attracted billions of dollars in the past decade from some of the world’s biggest companies from Amazon.com Inc. to Facebook Inc. and Microsoft Corp. With the major urban areas out of bounds, it will be harder to attract the same level of investment in the future. 

“A lot of businesses are rather energy-intensive and if we do not have enough capacity there is a potential chance it will impact long-term growth,” said Ake Gustafsson, senior economist at Swedbank AB. “Computer giants such as Amazon are global companies that can place their data centers anywhere.”

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