Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti, Trump

Trump. Goldman lo prognostica rieletto.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-04-18.

2019-04-16__Goldman__001

«Incumbency and state of economy help Trump’s chances»

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«Trump ‘more likely to win’ than lose second term, says Goldman»

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«Incumbent presidents carry a 5 to 6 percentage-point edge over rival candidates in the popular vote and Goldman Sachs’s economic forecast also leans in favor of Trump»

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«The advantage of first term incumbency and the relatively strong economic performance ahead of the presidential election suggest that President Trump is more likely to win a second term than the eventual Democratic candidate is to defeat him»

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Da oggi al novembre 2020 passa un anno a mezzo:troppo per poter fare una stima accurata.

Tuttavia sarebbe vero che il Presidente in carica sia favorito per un eventuale rinnovo, specie poi se la situazione economica fosse buona: bassa disoccupazione e bassi costi degli energetici, benzina e gasolio in primis.

A nostro personale parere malto farà l’avversario che uscirà dalla convention democratica.

Resta difficile pensare che Mr Trump abbia la fortuna di ritrovarsi un avversario quale fu Mrs Clinton, tutta tesa a temi comportamentali con scarso interesse all politica economica interna.


Bloomberg. 2019-04-14. Goldman Economists Say Trump Re-Election More Likely Than Not

– Incumbency and state of economy help Trump’s chances

– Trump ‘more likely to win’ than lose second term, says Goldman

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President Donald Trump enjoys a “narrow advantage” over rival candidates heading into the 2020 election given the outlook for the U.S. economy, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Incumbent presidents carry a 5 to 6 percentage-point edge over rival candidates in the popular vote and Goldman Sachs’s economic forecast also leans in favor of Trump, although that is partly offset by his negative approval rating, economists Alec Phillips and Blake Taylor wrote in a report released late on Saturday.

“The advantage of first term incumbency and the relatively strong economic performance ahead of the presidential election suggest that President Trump is more likely to win a second term than the eventual Democratic candidate is to defeat him,” said Phillips and Blake.

Goldman Sachs currently predicts the U.S. economy will grow 2.5 percent this year and 2.3 percent in 2020, a pace that will be enough to push unemployment down to 3.3 percent next year from 3.7 percent this year.

Historically, Phillips and Taylor found variables such as employment and income are better indicators of an election result than market-based forces such as equity or oil prices. The performance of the economy in the second quarter of the election year is often a strong guide to the result, they said.

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