Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Recessione e l’allegro pollaio di Bloomberg. Satira ovvero informazione?

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-01-18.

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‘There is something brewing’ in Germany: Fears of recession after latest industrial data

«- Another set of dismal industrial data from Germany has raised concerns over Germany’s economy.

– German industrial production declined 1.9 percent month-on-month in November, coming in way below a consensus for growth of 0.3 percent.

– Germany’s statistics office publishes preliminary GDP data for the fourth quarter and 2018 next week.»

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What Is a Recession? Examples, Impact, Benefits

«A recession is when the economy declines significantly for at least six months. That means there’s a drop in the following five economic indicators: real GDP, income, employment, manufacturing, and retail sales. ….

The only good thing about a recession is that it cures inflation. The Federal Reserve must always balance between slowing the economy enough to prevent inflation without triggering a recession. Usually, the Fed does this without the help of fiscal policy. Politicians, who control the federal budget, generally try to stimulate the economy as much as possible through lowering taxes, spending on social programs and ignoring the budget deficit. That’s how the U.S. debt grew to $10.5 trillion before even a penny was spent on the Economic Stimulus Package.»

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UK manufacturing in recession despite faster GDP growth

«The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said GDP increased by 0.4% in the second quarter from a rate of 0.2% in the previous three months, helped by stronger retail sales and good weather, which enabled the construction industry to make up lost ground from heavy snow earlier this year. ….

Philip Hammond, the chancellor, said Brexit uncertainty was depressing economic growth, as he used a trip to West Midlands on Friday to unveil £780m of new funding for high-tech industries.»

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«Germania, crolla produzione industriale: “Rischio recessione tecnica aumenta”.

«Il dato che per la prima volta sta scalfendo le certezze tedesche sulla solidità della loro economia arriva dalla produzione industriale a novembre (-1,9%). ….

La Germania comincia a interrogarsi su quanto effettivamente solida sia la sua economia. L’ultimo dato che sta scalfendo le certezze tedesche arriva dalla produzione industriale: con un calo a novembre su ottobre dell’1,9% (mentre si attendeva appena un -0,3). Un crollo in termini statistici rispetto a un anno fa: –4,7 per cento. Numeri che fanno riemergere prepotentemente il rischio di una recessione tecnica»

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Cerchiamo di ragionare, sempre che sia ancora possibile.

In Germania da giugno (-.9%) la produzione industriale sta diminuendo, fino al dato di -1.9% dell’8 gennaio. Tecnicamente parlando la Germania è in recessione.

In Francia la produzione industriale è -1.3%, in Italia il -2.8%, Spagna -2.66%.

Se è vero che l’11 gennaio la produzione industriale indiana era -.5%, sarebbe anche doveroso ricordare come da giugno ad ottobre fosse stata il +7.0%, +8.6%, +4.2%, +8.1%, rispettivamente.

In Cina da luglio a gennaio la produzione industriale è aumentata del 6.0%, 6.1%, 5.8%, 5.9%, 5.4%, rispettivamente.

I numeri ci indicano chiaramente come la recessione sia un fenomeno dell’Unione Europea, dalla quale India e Cina sono immuni. Sicuramente diminuiranno le loro esportazioni verso l’Unione Europea, ma stanno pur sempre ampliandosi per tassi percentuali maggiori del 5%: fosse successo in Europa Mr Juncker avrebbe brindato con un barilotto di Brunello.

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Ma con Mr Macron incapsulato dai Gilets Jaunes e Frau Merkel indaffarata a sorvegliare Frau AKK che le sta facendo scarpe e corna, non sarà facile che l’Unione Europea si riprenda a breve.

Grande consolazione ci viene però dal pollaio di Bloomberg.

Se volete rovinarvi seguite i consigli del pollaio di Bloomberg.

Il pollaio di Bloomberg aveva sentenziato ‘buy’. Apple -8.81%

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A starle a sentire sembrerebbero essere state catapultate da Marte sulla terra.

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Come si constata dalla fotografia in cimosa, mostrano tutta la loro intelligenza, ossia cosciotti che il volgere del tempo ha reso scarsamente appetibili. Ma a starle a sentire si comprende come il loro corpo sia l’unica cosa che loro rimane: si capiscono di economia come Mr Di Maio di fisica delle particelle. Con la grande differenza che Mr Di Maio non si è mai sognato di spacciarsi per fisico.

Seguire il loro cicaleccio assorda: fino a tanto che ci siano miliardari che sganciano, qui sopravviviamo più che bene.

Già.

Questo è l’intermezzo umoristico che Bloomberg concede a noi poveri risparmiatori in cerca di un porto più o meno sicuro per il nostro miserrimo gruzzolo.

Nota.

Osservate bene. La gentile signora di destra ha una tetta più alta della controlaterale.


Bloomberg. 2019-01-14. The World’s Biggest Economies Are Moving Deeper Into a Slowdown

– OECD gauge adds to worries after numbers from Germany, China

– Central bankers have taken note of mounting global risks

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Momentum is easing across the world’s major economies, according to a gauge the OECD uses to predict turning points.

The Composite Leading Indicator is the latest sign of a synchronized slowdown in global growth, adding to recession warnings sparked by industrial figures in Germany last week and slumping trade figures for China earlier on Monday.

Easing Confirmed

Momentum is easing across the world’s major economies, according to a gauge the OECD uses to predict turning points.

The Composite Leading Indicator is the latest sign of a synchronized slowdown in global growth, adding to recession warnings sparked by industrial figures in Germany last week and slumping trade figures for China earlier on Monday.

Easing Confirmed

Growth in the some of the world’s biggest economies is slowing

The indicator, which is designed to anticipate turning points six-to-nine months ahead, has been ticking down since the start of 2018 and fell again in November. The OECD singled out the U.S. and Germany, where it said “tentative signs” of easing momentum are now confirmed.

Just two weeks into 2019, the OECD economic indicator follows a run of numbers that mean growth this year could be even slower than currently anticipated. For Bloomberg Economics, the data point to “slowdown, not meltdown,” but it still says the loss of momentum is “striking.”

What Our Economists Say:

“The early signs from the data suggest the world economy lost momentum as it entered 2019.” The median from a mapping of global measures “suggests gains may have dropped below the 3 percent mark for the first time since late 2016. That’s about 0.7 percentage point below the average since 2010 and a full percentage point below the 2000–2007 average. That slowdown is striking.”

China

Trade-tensions with the U.S. are showing up in data. Chinese exports slumped 4.4 percent in December from a year earlier, marking the worst performance in dollar terms since 2016. Imports also dropped the most since 2016, hinting at softening demand at home that could have implications for exporters to China.

The numbers sent stocks lower in Europe and Asia. The Stoxx 600 Index was down almost 1 percent as of 12 p.m. Frankfurt time.

The indicator, which is designed to anticipate turning points six-to-nine months ahead, has been ticking down since the start of 2018 and fell again in November. The OECD singled out the U.S. and Germany, where it said “tentative signs” of easing momentum are now confirmed.

Just two weeks into 2019, the OECD economic indicator follows a run of numbers that mean growth this year could be even slower than currently anticipated. For Bloomberg Economics, the data point to “slowdown, not meltdown,” but it still says the loss of momentum is “striking.”

What Our Economists Say:

“The early signs from the data suggest the world economy lost momentum as it entered 2019.” The median from a mapping of global measures “suggests gains may have dropped below the 3 percent mark for the first time since late 2016. That’s about 0.7 percentage point below the average since 2010 and a full percentage point below the 2000–2007 average. That slowdown is striking.”

–Bloombeg Economics. Read the Global Dashboard 

China

Trade-tensions with the U.S. are showing up in data. Chinese exports slumped 4.4 percent in December from a year earlier, marking the worst performance in dollar terms since 2016. Imports also dropped the most since 2016, hinting at softening demand at home that could have implications for exporters to China.

The numbers sent stocks lower in Europe and Asia. The Stoxx 600 Index was down almost 1 percent as of 12 p.m. Frankfurt time.

The indicator, which is designed to anticipate turning points six-to-nine months ahead, has been ticking down since the start of 2018 and fell again in November. The OECD singled out the U.S. and Germany, where it said “tentative signs” of easing momentum are now confirmed.

Just two weeks into 2019, the OECD economic indicator follows a run of numbers that mean growth this year could be even slower than currently anticipated. For Bloomberg Economics, the data point to “slowdown, not meltdown,” but it still says the loss of momentum is “striking.”

China

Trade-tensions with the U.S. are showing up in data. Chinese exports slumped 4.4 percent in December from a year earlier, marking the worst performance in dollar terms since 2016. Imports also dropped the most since 2016, hinting at softening demand at home that could have implications for exporters to China.

The numbers sent stocks lower in Europe and Asia. The Stoxx 600 Index was down almost 1 percent as of 12 p.m. Frankfurt time.

Trade Slumps

End of front-loaded export demand and slowing economy hit trade

Source: Customs General Administration

Euro Area

Industry in the region’s major economies had a grim month in November. Output declined 1.7 percent, with a slump in Germany sparking talk that it could shrink for a second quarter, putting it in a technical recession. There are also concerns about Italy’s economy, while riots and protests in France have hit growth there.

U.S.

Jobs growth remains strong, according to the latest payrolls report, but measures of activity have weakened. The Institute for Supply Management’s key manufacturing gauge is at a two-year low, and the housing market is cooling. Overall expansion is forecast to moderate this year, partly due to a fading boost from the Trump administration’s tax cuts.

Federal Reserve policy makers have taken note of the changed outlook and suggested they could pause their interest-rate hike cycle as they await clarity. Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the Fed can be “patient and flexible and wait and see what does evolve.”

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