Giuseppe Sandro Mela.
Il primo ottobre il Nikkei valeva 24,245.76: oggi vale 19,155.74.
In tre mesi il Nikkei ha perso il 20.99%, 100 * (24,245.76 – 19,155.74) / 24,245.76.
Ma per ritornare ai livello del primo ottobre, il Nikkei dovrebbe risalire del 26.57%, 100 * (24,245.76 – 19,155.74) / – 19,155.74
Il primo ottobre il Dow Jones valeva 26,828.39: oggi vale 21,792.20.
In tre mesi il Down Jones ha perso il 18.77%.
«US stocks had their worst Christmas Eve on record»
«The Dow Jones index of 30 leading companies fell more than 650 points on Monday, and is on track for its worst December since 1931, during the Great Depression»
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Come sempre accade in circostanze del genere, tutti si affannano a cercare il ‘colpevole‘.
«The Asian markets are believed to be largely reacting to movement in the US and an ensuing shares sell-off by concerned investors»
«US-China trade tensions are a factor, as well as reports that President Donald Trump has discussed firing the chairman of the US central bank, Jerome Powell»
«The US government has also entered partial shutdown, after Congress refused to fund President Trump’s planned US-Mexico border wall.»
Dunque, la colpa di tutto questo sconquasso sarebbe ascrivibile al solo Mr Trump.
Fate conto di guardare un castello di carte. Sembrerebbe essere in equilibrio stabile, mentre in realtà è in un equilibrio metastabile. Basta un alito e crolla.
Orbene. La colpa del crollo è da addebitarsi al soffio ovvero alla fragilità intrinseca del castello di carte?
Se le carte fossero state incollate, il castello non sarebbe certo caduto.
Il mercato azionario occidentale è ancora molto gonfiato rispetto a quello che dovrebbe essere il suo reale valore.
Non ci si faccia illusioni di sorta: ma proprio nessuna. Nel tempo le borse sono destinate a decrescere, più o meno convulsamente, con qualche pausa di arresto, ma alla fine dovranno ben tornare ad uno steady state. Ossia, ad un momento in cui la valutazione finanziaria sia ragionevolmente in accordo con quella economica.
L’epoca di una finanza scollata dall’economia è finita.
* * * * * * *
Stupisce un fatto.
Mentre tutti si affannano a cercare il colpevole, nessuno sembrerebbe preoccuparsi di cercare di capire come uscire da questa situazione.
Ma le ricette sono tutte dolorose, molto dolorose. Si dovrà tornare a privilegiare l’economia rispetto la finanza.
Molto semplicemente, gli investimenti fatti nel comparto produttivo devono rendere di più di quelli fatti nel comparto finanziario. Fino a tanto che non sia stato raggiunto questo equilibrio, il sistema economico resterà instabile.
→ Bbc. 2018-12-25. Japan’s Nikkei index slides amid US uncertainty
Japan’s main stock market index has plunged, reflecting traders’ worries following a slide on Wall Street.
The Nikkei closed down 5% on Tuesday, its worst finish since April 2017. Indexes in Shanghai, Bangkok and Taiwan also fell.
Investors have been concerned about President Trump’s dispute with the US central bank chief and another government shutdown.
US stocks had their worst Christmas Eve on record.
The Dow Jones index of 30 leading companies fell more than 650 points on Monday, and is on track for its worst December since 1931, during the Great Depression.
Many financial markets in Asia, Europe and North America are closed on Tuesday for Christmas.
In China, the Shanghai composite index fell more than 2% on Tuesday morning.
What triggered the falls?
The Asian markets are believed to be largely reacting to movement in the US and an ensuing shares sell-off by concerned investors.
US-China trade tensions are a factor, as well as reports that President Donald Trump has discussed firing the chairman of the US central bank, Jerome Powell.
The US government has also entered partial shutdown, after Congress refused to fund President Trump’s planned US-Mexico border wall.
What has Trump said?
On Monday, President Trump lashed out at the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, as the stock market plunged.
The president said the Fed was “the only problem” of the US economy.
Mr Trump continually boasted about Wall Street’s steep climb during the first year of his presidency, but has sought to deflect blame since markets hit a rough patch in 2018.
Soothed or spooked?
On Sunday US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin took the unusual step of calling the chief executives of America’s six largest banks in a bid to soothe market jitters.
Afterwards, the Treasury shared a statement about Mr Mnuchin’s phone call, confirming that the banks’ chief executives had “ample liquidity available for lending to consumer, business markets, and all other market operations”.
“The markets continue to function properly,” it added.
On Monday, Mr Mnuchin called top market regulators and officials from the US central bank to allay fears.
Not a very merry Christmas
Analysis by Samira Hussain, business reporter, BBC News, New York
It is rare for a US treasury secretary to make public his discussions with American financial institutions. But that is exactly what Mr Mnuchin did.
He was attempting to ease financial markets but Monday’s swoon showed he did the opposite.
So then President Trump weighed in by tweet and renewed his criticism of the Federal Reserve. That did not have the desired effect either. Instead of the typical Santa Rally, we saw US investors flee stocks for safety.
Not exactly the Christmas cheer the White House was hoping for.
What does this mean for 2019? A lot will depend on what happens in Washington: government shutdown, simmering trade tensions and the president’s tweets.
One thing has been made very clear: if the White House wants to calm nervous investors, it’s going to need to get much better at its messaging.
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average slid into a bear market, as a global equity rout continued unabated in the last week of the year, with renewed turmoil in Washington rattling investors. Israeli stocks sank for a fourth day, while the yen and Japanese bonds rose.
The Japanese benchmark fell 5 percent on Tuesday, widening its drop to 21 percent from its Oct. 2 peak, taking its cue from the S&P 500’s worst trading session before the Christmas holiday. Chinese shares, the other major Asian market open on Tuesday, also declined as investors shrugged off a pledge by the government to do more to support companies.
Investors looking to Washington for signs of stability that might bolster confidence instead got further unnerved on Monday. President Donald Trump blasted the Federal Reserve, blaming the central bank for the three-month equity rout days after Bloomberg reported he inquired about firing the chairman, while Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sought to assuage rising anxiety with a hastily called meeting of top financial regulators.
“The Trump bubble, which has brought gains in U.S. stocks and the dollar, is collapsing,” said Mitsushige Akino, an executive officer at Ichiyoshi Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. “The more stocks fall, the more investor sentiment gets worse, so there’s more people who need to sell temporarily, such as stop-loss selling.”
The tumult in Washington added to concerns of investors, who have seen equities worldwide tumble on concerns about a slowing U.S. economy, the pace of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the ongoing trade war. The S&P 500 plunged almost 3 percent to end at a 20-month low on Monday.
“It’s just like panic selling,” said Nobuhiko Kuramochi, head of investment information at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo. “The equity markets are pricing in concerns over a slowdown in the global economy and a downward revision in corporate earnings in advance. Some investors are reducing their exposure to equities in their portfolio” by increasing cash or bonds.
Japan’s benchmark 10-year bond yield slipped to zero percent for the first time since September 2017, while the yen advanced for an eighth day, it’s longest rising streak since March 2017, as investors sought haven.
Equities in Shanghai dropped, despite plans by policy makers to improve financing for the private sector and implement tax cuts. PetroChina Co. led the decline after crude plummeted.
Markets may be overreacting, Japan’s Finance Minister Taro Aso said, adding that he’s not overly worried. Still, an emergency margin call was triggered for the nation’s index futures.
Israeli stocks suffered their worst four-day plunge in a decade after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government fell apart, sparking an early general election. The political upheaval added to concern over Ireland’s $1.8 billion tax assessment for Perrigo Co.
These are the main moves in markets:
– The Nikkei 225 Index declined 5 percent to close at 19,155.74
– The Shanghai Composite Index declined 0.9 percent to 2,504.819
– Israel’s TA-35 Index retreated as much as 2.8 percent as of 12:10 p.m. in Tel Aviv
– Most major indexes in the Middle East fell
– The Japanese yen rose as much as 0.4 percent to 110.00 per dollar, the strongest level since August
– The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added 0.1 percent after dropping 0.4 percent on Monday
– The Chinese yuan advanced 0.2 percent
– Japan’s 10-year bond yield pared a decline, and is down three basis points
– The benchmark yield in China also dropped 3 basis points, the most in two weeks
– Gold was steady at $1,268.54 an ounce, after rising by as much as 1.1 percent on Monday to its highest since June
– Chinese oil futures fell by the daily limit from Monday’s settlement price to 351.6 yuan a barrel in Shanghai