Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti, Trump

Midterm. Alcune prime analisi. – NYT

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-11-08.

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Dal 30 aprile 1789 gli Stati Uniti di America hanno avuto 45 presidenti. Solo durante tre mandati quadriennali alle elezioni di midterm gli Elettori hanno nominato un Congresso ed un Senato dello stesso partito del Presidente. In tutte le altre circostanze il Presidente ha avuto Congresso e Senato di colore opposto al suo, ivi compreso il past-president Obama.

Sembrerebbe quindi che non sia particolare disonore per Mr Trump avere il Congresso a maggioranza democratica. Tanto, il Senato è dalla sua.

Gli Stati Uniti sono inoltre uno stato presidenziale, per cui l’importanza del Congresso è notevole, ma non certo equiparabile a quella che avrebbe in uno stato a regime parlamentare.

Ben differente è l’importanza del Senato, corte di giustizia nei casi di impeachment, ma soprattutto organo deputato a vidimare le nomine presidenziali.

«Republicans looked to have increased their 51-49 majority to as many as 54 seats»

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«That means President Donald Trump, who holds the most important power center, can continue getting conservative federal judges confirmed – something he has done in record numbers already. And he is in a strong position should another vacancy materialize on the Supreme Court»

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Il Presidente Trump ha adesso mano libera nel procedere con le nome di giudici federali nelle 239 sedi ancora vacanti. Saranno tutti giudici chiaramente repubblicani e giovanissimi: poiché le cariche durano a vita, per trenta anni almeno la quasi totalità delle Corti di Appello federali saranno a maggioranza Gop.

Ma la frase citata ha anche un accenno velenosissimo.

«And he is in a strong position

should another vacancy materialize on the Supreme Court»

Già.

Sua Giustizia Ruth Bader Ginsburg è nata il 15 marzo 1933, ha 85 anni. Se è vero che ci sono siti denominati “Justice Ginsburg Death Watch”, è altrettanto vero che Sua Giustizia afferma di stare più che bene. Perché queste facezie? Semplice. La Ginsburg è l’icona dei liberal democratici. Ma se fosse obbligata a lasciare libera la poltrona, Mr Trump potrebbe piazzare un terzo giudice repubblicano nella Corte Suprema. Sarebbe la morte definitiva dei liberal democratici.

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Republicans’ Senate wins will help President Trump, his judicial and Cabinet nominees, and GOP chances in 2020

«ۛWASHINGTON – Republicans held on strongly Tuesday to their second-most important bastion of power: the United States Senate.

That means President Donald Trump, who holds the most important power center, can continue getting conservative federal judges confirmed – something he has done in record numbers already. And he is in a strong position should another vacancy materialize on the Supreme Court.

It means Trump’s anticipated shakeup of his administration should go relatively smoothly: Senate Republicans will be able to rubber-stamp new Cabinet nominees for posts ranging from attorney general to, possibly, defense secretary.

It means that no matter what the new Democratic House of Representatives does in terms of investigating Trump, the Senate is poised to beat back impeachment, as it did for President Bill Clinton in 1998.

And by gaining rather than losing Senate seats, it means Republicans have a vastly improved chance of keeping control through 2020, when they will be defending 22 of 34 seats up for grabs. That represents a table-turning from this year’s election, when Democrats had to defend 26 of 35 seats. 

Even Sen. Mitch McConnell, the normally stone-faced GOP leader of the Senate, showed a glimpse of glee Wednesday.

“I had one of the cable networks on this morning, and they said, “This is probably a rare opportunity to see McConnell smile,'” the Kentucky Republican told reporters.

The red-state wins in what pundits had predicted would be a blue-wave election prompted self-congratulations from Trump, who tweeted that presidents have added Senate seats in off-year elections only five times in 105 years. 

Former president Barack Obama, meanwhile, was silent about the Senate. “Obviously, the Democrats’ success in flipping the House of Representatives, several governorships, and state legislatures will get the most attention,” he said in a statement.

As the sun rose in the nation’s capital Wednesday, McConnell emerged as the biggest winner of the 2018 midterm elections. Republicans looked to have increased their 51-49 majority to as many as 54 seats.»

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«After confirming 84 judges since Trump was elected, including two to the Supreme Court and 29 to circuit courts, McConnell said confirming judges remains his top priority»

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Midterm Election Results Leave a Divided Congress

Republicans moved toward expanding their control of the Senate as Democrats took power in the House, with incomplete election results pointing toward a reaffirmation of a deeply divided nation.

The Republicans flipped seats in three states — Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota — that President Trump had won by a large margin in 2016, and won an open seat in Tennessee. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas held off a surprisingly strong challenge from Beto O’Rourke.

Money and momentum favored the Democrats, who seized more than a dozen of the 23 seats they needed to take the House in early returns. Democrats faced mixed results in the governor’s races, picking up governorships in Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico and Wisconsin, but failing to claim the coveted battleground of Florida.

The returns provided fresh evidence of the partisan split in American political life with Democrats seizing Republican House seats in suburban districts where affluent educated voters had been vocal in their opposition to Mr. Trump.

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Intanto diamo subito una risposta chiara, usando le parole del The New York Times:

«So how big was the blue wave? Over all, 2018’s shift to the left was smaller than the one in 2006, the last time the Democrats flipped the House. And it was half the size of the most recent Republican wave in 2010 when districts shifted more than 19 points to the right.»

La Marea Blu non c’è stata.

The ‘Blue Wave’ Wasn’t Enough to Overcome Republican Gerrymanders

«The midterms saw a “blue wave” of Democratic support, with the party gaining at least 26 House seats and winning the popular vote by seven points. While it was a significant victory that gave control of the House to the Democrats, they could have won even more seats if not for gerrymanders – carefully manipulated district maps that have given Republicans a substantial advantage in House elections since 2012.

Particularly in four states – Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina and Texas – Democratic candidates gained support from voters relative to 2016, but gained relatively few seats.

 In Michigan, Democrats flipped two seats, but got only 50 percent of the seats despite winning 54 percent of the vote… Republican gerrymanders in North Carolina, Michigan and Texas also withstood the blue wave, with few or no districts flipping in the Democrats’ favor:

In North Carolina, the Democrats gained 2.9 percentage points, but flipped no seats… But that’s not what happened. The results were tilted toward Republicans. ….»

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Idem per la Marea Rosa.

La percentuale delle femmine elette è di gran lunga inferiore alla percentuale delle femmine candidate.

Al pratico: la gente vota la persona senza badare al sesso.

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