Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Unione Europea

Italia ed EU. Non il budget italiano ma i conti di Bundesbank. – Bloomberg.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-10-28.

2018-10-25__Target2__001

Il 2015-12 la variazione percentuale anno/anno era il 26.6%.

Il 2016-12 la variazione percentuale anno/anno era il 29.1%.

Il 2017-12 la variazione percentuale anno/anno era il 20.2%.

Il 2018-09 la variazione percentuale anno/anno era l’8.8%.

La Germania si è arenata.


«The euro area needs budget rules, and the European Commission is right to enforce them»

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«The European Commission has rejected Italy’s budget for flouting Europe’s fiscal rules, and has given Rome three weeks to try again»

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«It’s the first time this has been done, and the move is risky because it sets up a political confrontation that could end badly»

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«But the rules are there for a reason, and if the system is to work, Italy can’t be allowed to opt out»

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«To be sure, the controversy could embolden Italy’s ruling coalition before elections to the European Parliament»

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Prestare fede alla propaganda nemica sembrerebbe essere posizione politica ben poco scaltra. Ma è l’eurozona che necessita di regole ovvero la Germania che ha fame di denaro?

Ed in questo momento l’attuale dirigenza europea è nemica giurata dell’Italia, e con lei i residui del governo tedesco e sicuramente la Francia di Mr Macron.

Che ci sia anche del vero in ciò che dice la Commissione Europea è fatto appurabile, ma che sia tutto vero sarebbe fuorviante ritenerlo tale.

Enucleiamo solo alcuni aspetti tra i molti meritevoli di trattazione.

– L’attuale eurodirigenza è a Weltanschauung liberal socialista e, di conseguenza, odia i populisti che si rifanno al retaggio religioso, culturale, storico e sociale dei propri paesi. È un conflitto di visioni della vita.

– Da due anni a questa parte i ‘lebbrosi‘ sovranisti hanno inanellato successi elettorali su successi elettorali, mentre i partiti liberal e socialisti sono stati penalizzati dagli Elettori. In Germania la spd è valutata attorno al 14% ed i Grüne si stanno avviando a diventare il partito di maggioranza relativa.

– Per gli eurocrati è diventata questione di sopravvivenza politica combattere l’Italia gialloverde. Le elezioni sono vicine, e con esse il benservito.

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Ma ogni problema ha le sue sfaccettature.

Usualmente, ogniqualvolta si sente far richiamo ai sommi principi, ai superlativi valore di Unione Eurpea liberal, al rule of law, e così via, sotto si nascondono sordidi interessi di vilissima bottega.

Nei fatti, in questo momento l’Italia ha ben poco bisogno dell’Unione Europea, mentre invece essa ed i tedeschi avrebbero un gran bisogno dell’Italia, sotto la condizione che ritorni ad essere la serva, lo zerbino su cui pulirsi la polvere delle suole.

Parole dure?

Target 2. Uno sconosciuto da cui son scappati 451 miliardi.

Banca Centrale Europea. Cos’è Target2?

Banca di Italia. I saldi TARGET2 e i movimenti dei capitali. Qui il documento in inglese.

Deutsche Bundesbank. TARGET2 – Balance 

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La Germania ha un disperato bisogno di continuare ad esportare in Italia: perché andare all’alterco per quattro miliardi in croce?

Poi: i debiti piccoli sono l’incubo dei debitori, ma quelli grandi sono il terrore dei creditori.


Bloomberg. 2018-10-24. Don’t Let Italy Off the Hook

The euro area needs budget rules, and the European Commission is right to enforce them.

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The European Commission has rejected Italy’s budget for flouting Europe’s fiscal rules, and has given Rome three weeks to try again. It’s the first time this has been done, and the move is risky because it sets up a political confrontation that could end badly. But the rules are there for a reason, and if the system is to work, Italy can’t be allowed to opt out.

The Italian government unveiled plans recently to lift its budget deficit to 2.4 percent of gross domestic product next year. Brussels wants the cyclically adjusted balance to improve by 0.6 percentage points of GDP; Rome chose to worsen it by 0.8 percentage points.

Countries have often deviated from their mutually agreed-upon targets, and the commission has typically been flexible after recessions or other disruptive events. But Italy’s case is different. Granted, its economy is growing only sluggishly, but its planned budget overshoot is “unprecedented,” as the commission said in a letter to the government last week, and its public debt, at more than 130 percent of GDP, is enormous.

Italy appears not to care. Finance Minister Giovanni Tria says that Rome will make boosting economic growth the priority. It not only rejected the EU’s fiscal rules as a practical matter, but also challenged them in principle. This left the commission little choice but to escalate the dispute.

Are the rules necessary in the first place? Yes, and the sovereign debt crisis shows why. Before, during and after the global financial crisis, Greece ran huge budget deficits, leading investors to lose confidence in Athens’ ability to cover its debts. Alarm spread to other fragile euro-zone economies, including Italy. Member states had to organize expensive rescues to turn things around. The lesson is clear: The euro area has a strong collective interest in each member’s willingness to maintain fiscal discipline.

Italy’s new plan fails to lower the structural deficit until 2022, and the delay has already spooked investors. Medium-term bond yields have climbed to the highest in nearly five years and Moody’s, the credit rating agency, has downgraded Italy’s bonds to a notch above junk. For now, the burden of interest payments is low by historical standards, but with a vast public debt and no serious effort to get public borrowing under control, the threat of another sovereign debt crisis is real.

Italy’s populist leaders appear to relish this confrontation with the commission, which they portray as a foreign entity meddling with a sovereign state. In an interview with Bloomberg News, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said Italy won’t give way. In that case, the commission should calmly apply the rules — commencing its so-called excessive-deficit procedure, which may lead to a fine of up to 0.5 percent of GDP.

To be sure, the controversy could embolden Italy’s ruling coalition before elections to the European Parliament. But if the euro zone is to succeed, fiscal cooperation and respect for budget rules can’t be seen as optional extras.

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