Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Svezia. Si sono avverate le nostre previsioni. SD è ago della bilancia.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-09-27.

STOCCOLMA-01

La Svezia è diventata un laboratorio politico degno della massima attenzione.

Svezia. Il caso di Mr Qaisar Mahmood. Farsa nella tragedia.

Svezia. Adesso è caduta nel limbo politico.

«Full preliminary results, including overseas and postal votes, showed the Social Democrat, Green and Left parties took 40.7% of the vote, giving them 144 seats, while the centre-right Alliance of the Moderate, Centre, Christian Democrat and Liberal parties won 40.3% and 143 seats»

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«Both blocs are well short of a majority in the 349-seat Riksdag and whatever government finally emerges will need support either from members of the opposition bloc, or from the far-right Sweden Democrats whose 17.5% of the vote gave them 62 MPs, to pass new legislation»

Il parlamento svedese, Riksdag, conta 349 deputati: la maggioranza per poter governare parte da 175 deputati.

Svezia. Due lezioni che resteranno inascoltate.

«– Le elezioni svedesi sono state inconcludenti per quanto riguarda un chiaro segnale elettorale sulla forma di governo che dovrebbe gestire la nazione.

– Se è vero che il blocco di centrosinistra equivale a quello di centrodestra, sarebbe altrettanto vero ammettere come il primo sia improntato alla ideologia socialista ed il secondo a quella liberal.  Il termine “centrodestra” è fortemente inappropriato.

– Svezia Democratica ha ottenuto 62 seggi in parlamento. Se sicuramente non può ambire al governo, altrettanto sicuramente la sua stessa presenza ha alterato in modo netto gli attuali equilibri.

– Le elezioni svedesi ricalcano quelle di quasi tutti i paesi dell’Unione Europea. I partiti tradizionali stanno velocemente perdendo terreno mentre le forze innovative crescono altrettanto velocemente: nel prossimo parlamento europeo potrebbero raggiungere e superare il trenta per cento degli eurodeputati. I paesi europei stanno diventando ingovernabili, e l’intero sistema politico tende quindi ad implodere.»

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Come avevamo prognosticato, la Svezia è crollata in un limbo politico.

Come poterne uscire sembrerebbe essere non solo materia di alchimie politiche.

Will Swedish values survive?

«The conclusion of this experiment was bound to be explosive and prophetic. It would tell us about the trajectory of European politics and the rise of global populism»

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«On the night, we were treated to the bizarre spectacle of seven out of eight main parties declaring that they were ‘winners’.»

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«In the global battle between progressive and traditional values, Sweden is the standard-bearer for progressivism. Many outside observers of Sunday’s election expected to see the standard-bearer felled and humiliated»

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«These negotiations depend on Swedish values, and Swedish values depend on these negotiations»

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«If the country’s leaders believe in the progressive Swedish values that they have been espousing on the campaign trail, now is the time to prove it»

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In Svezia si è arrivati al redde rationem.

Non è solo lo scontro politico riportato negli articoli.

Si stanno scontrando tre Weltanschauung opposte, ciascuna delle quali è incompatibile con le altre due: l’ideologia liberal, quella socialista e quella che invece rimette in primo piano il retaggio religioso, storico, culturale, sociale del paese.


The Local. Sweden. 2018-09-25. Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven voted out by parliament

Social Democrat leader Stefan Löfven has been voted out of the job by a majority of parliament – the first Swedish prime minister to be ousted in such a vote.

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A total of 204 of Sweden’s 349 members of parliament voted no to Löfven as prime minister on Tuesday morning. No one abstained, 142 voted for Löfven and three MPs were not present in the chamber.

“Today, after the election, we’re doing what we promised before the election,” the Moderates’ Ulf Kristersson, leader of the largest party in the centre-right Alliance opposition, told parliament ahead of the vote. “To the Alliance it is obvious that Sweden needs a new government.”

Anders Ygeman, the group leader of the Social Democrats in parliament, argued that Sweden’s September 9th election gave 143 seats to the four-party Alliance and 144 seats to the centre-left bloc of the Social Democrats, Greens and Left Party. The centre-right however has argued that the Left Party is not formally part of government and should therefore not be counted as part of the centre-left bloc.

The Social Democrats, Greens and Left voted for Löfven, while the Moderates, Centre, Liberals, Christian Democrats and the Sweden Democrats voted against him.

The result was expected and it will now be up to speaker of parliament Andreas Norlén to ask another party leader to try to form a government. Löfven is however set to lead a caretaker government during the weeks or months it is expected to take to find a new head of government. 

Löfven told reporters after the vote that he remained prepared to stay on as prime minister if asked to do so by the speaker, saying he wanted to negotiate across the political divide to seek bi-partisan compromises.

“It is my wish to continue serving our country as prime minister. I want to lead a government that enjoys broad support in Sweden’s parliament, so that we can leave bloc politics behind and take the country forward,” he said.

Elections on September 9th left neither of Sweden’s main blocs with an absolute majority, with just one seat separating the centre-left (Social Democrats and the Green Party) and the centre-right Alliance (Moderate Party, Centre Party, Christian Democrats, and Liberals).

The Sweden Democrats are the third largest group, and some right-wing MPs have suggested cooperation with the far-right party. The Centre Party and Liberals have said they would quit the Alliance if the Moderates and Christian Democrats were to negotiate a deal – for example on immigration – with the far-right in exchange for their support.

Another alternative would be for the Alliance to reach a compromise with the Social Democrats on big political issues, such as the autumn budget.

Tuesday morning’s confidence motion follows an important day on Monday, which saw Norlén of the centre-right Moderates elected parliamentary speaker, apparently thanks to the support of the far-right. Although the vote was anonymous, the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats had indicated they would support the Moderate Party’s candidate, likely hoping for support for their own candidates in exchange. 

Their candidate Björn Söder lost out on a deputy speaker post in parliament though, after losing votes for the roles of second and third deputy speaker. The position of second deputy speaker usually goes to a member of the third largest bloc or party, which would be the Sweden Democrats, and Söder was the incumbent in the role, but Left Party candidate Lotta Johnsson Fornarve was chosen as second deputy speaker and  the Centre Party’s Kerstin Lundgren as third deputy speaker.


The Local. Sweden. 2018-09-25. What’s next for Sweden after confidence vote?

Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven was ousted from the role in a confidence motion on Tuesday morning. So where does this leave Sweden and its government negotiations? Here’s a recap of how we got here and what to expect next.

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What’s happened since the election?

As you probably know, Sweden’s September 9th election left neither of the two main blocs (the centre-left and the centre-right Alliance) with an absolute majority, and there was just one seat between the two. The Sweden Democrats were the third biggest group, meaning some form of compromise will be essential for a working government.

Parliament reconvened for the first time since the vote on Monday, with a roll call of the newly-elected members.

The other big task was electing the new speakers of parliament. Usually, these roles are given out to candidates from different parties based on their size in the new parliament, but because the two main groups are now almost neck-and-neck, that didn’t happen this time.

The Moderate Party’s candidate Andreas Norlén was voted into the job of speaker, with the roles of deputy speaker, second deputy speaker and third deputy speaker going to candidates from the Social Democrats, Left Party, and Centre Party respectively.

With the speakers elected and Löfven having resisted calls for his resignation, lawmakers took part in a confidence vote on the PM, and Löfven was ousted from the role.

What’s the next step?

Speaker Andreas Norlén has the official task of putting forward a proposal for who should become prime minister. According to a government statement, he will begin talks with the parliamentary group leaders on Thursday.

The decision is usually made after a lot of cross-party talks behind closed doors, in order to ensure that the PM candidate has a good chance of actually forming a government backed by parliament. So far, parliament has always approved the first proposal.

In the meantime, Löfven will continue to lead a caretaker administration until a new workable government is found. This has the same power as a regular government, but is expected to take care only of day-to-day issues and things that can’t be postponed.

Who are the most likely PM candidates?

Many observers think Ulf Kristersson, the leader of the Moderate Party, will be the first choice, and he is the Alliance’s top pick, as the leader of the bloc’s largest party.

What if the first attempt fails?

The speaker has four attempts to get parliament to agree to a new prime minister, or at least convince enough MPs to abstain and not actively vote against the candidate.

If they fail to agree on any of the four proposals, a new election must be held within three months. However, this has never happened in Swedish history.

What’s the role of the Sweden Democrats?

In the lead-up to the general election, a lot was made about the potential influence of the far-right Sweden Democrats, who according to many polls were on track to become the second largest party. That didn’t happen, but they could still wield some influence.

Some of the top Sweden Democrats were critical after their candidate failed to be elected to any of the deputy speaker posts. Leader Jimmie Åkesson called the Moderate Party “weak” for not voting for a Sweden Democrat after the far-right party supported the Moderate candidate for the speaker position.

The Centre Party and Liberals have said they would quit the Alliance if the Moderates and Christian Democrats were to negotiate a deal – for example on immigration – with the far-right in exchange for their support.

Any other options?

Löfven said on Tuesday that the Social Democrats would never be a partner in an Alliance government, and that this would be “undemocratic”. But it would be possible for the Alliance to reach a compromise with the Social Democrats on big political issues, such as the autumn budget.


The Local. Sweden. 2018-09-25. Will Swedish values survive the next two weeks?

The big story from Sweden’s election is still to be written. As politicians wrangle, the country’s reputation and values are at stake, writes Paul Rapacioli, co-founder of The Local and author of Good Sweden, Bad Sweden.

Going to vote in Sweden’s election on Sunday felt like participating in a vast experiment conducted on the world stage.

The hypothesis put forward by the international media was clear: progressive values bite the dust in an environment of high immigration and soaring crime.

So many new, combustible ingredients had been thrown into the mix during the last term of government: a refugee crisis with an astonishingly high number of arrivals in the country, intense focus on integration failures, daily news of gangland shootings, designation as “the rape capital of Europe”, and a spate of hand grenade attacks. 

In recent months some polls had predicted a 20-25 percent share for the Sweden Democrats. Many, including the party’s own politicians, had talked up their chances of becoming Sweden’s biggest party.

The conclusion of this experiment was bound to be explosive and prophetic. It would tell us about the trajectory of European politics and the rise of global populism. The world’s media put on its safety goggles, lit the blue touch paper and retreated. 

There was a bit of a fizzle and then the various elements combined into an amorphous pulp of complex political details. Oh.

With votes from abroad still to be counted, the Sweden Democrats achieved 17.6 percent of the vote. This is a significant increase on their share in 2014 but, as my colleague at their election night celebration reported, the result was a huge disappointment.

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Here’s the moment the first exit poll came through last night putting the Sweden Democrats at 16.3%. They eventually recorded 17.6% but the dancefloor never got going after this initial shock. #SwedenElection pic.twitter.com/g8Au35sHmw

— Paul O’Mahony (@OMahonyPaul) September 10, 2018

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And so it should be: the Sweden Democrats were at the centre of every debate, targeted by every other party. They owned the ubiquitous immigration issue. They had the wind of the world’s media at their back and a legion of bots sent from who-knows-where spreading their gospel of doom about the country. And yet they gained far fewer new voters than last time around.

In 2014 the Sweden Democrats added 461,568 new votes to their previous tally. On Sunday they added 297,713. That’s a 35 percent smaller surge than four years ago despite conditions in this campaign being far more favourable.

On the night, we were treated to the bizarre spectacle of seven out of eight main parties declaring that they were ‘winners’. Now the parties’ leaders are locked in intense negotiations about how best to form a government. There are said to be a dozen possible outcomes and the country could end up heading left or right or creating a cross-bloc arrangement on a different plane altogether.

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I like how almost all party leaders are calling themselves the winners of this election. Swedish equality?

— Emma Löfgren (@ekjlofgren) September 9, 2018

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It’s complicated, because despite widespread international reporting that implied that this election was all about immigration, Swedes are actually more concerned about healthcare, education, equality, law and order, care for the elderly and the Swedish economy.

So what about that hypothesis?

The truth is, the international media didn’t get the story they came looking for. The real reason the world was watching Sweden so closely in recent weeks was what people associate with the country: not Abba or Ikea or forests but a set of extreme progressive values, such as tolerance, openness, equality, transparency.

In the global battle between progressive and traditional values, Sweden is the standard-bearer for progressivism. Many outside observers of Sunday’s election expected to see the standard-bearer felled and humiliated. The journalists came to report on a bloody and decisive turning point but what they got was boring Swedish political negotiations.

Yes, the Sweden Democrats have grown. Yes, they will have more influence. Yes, immigration is a factor. And yes, this is important news. But the real story of this election is evolving now, slowly and Swedishly, behind closed doors: can Sweden’s politicians can find a way to thread the needle of staying true to progressive values while bringing greater effectiveness to government?

These negotiations are going to define how Sweden handles the problems, real and exaggerated, that it faces. These negotiations depend on Swedish values, and Swedish values depend on these negotiations.

If a toothless government emerges then it will be a lot harder to shorten hospital waiting times, improve schools, strengthen the police and solve the housing crisis – and in four years’ time we’ll be right back where we were last week. If the conservative parties bite the bullet and bring the Sweden Democrats into their play for power, then years of promises not to work with them will have been for nothing and political trust will be undermined for a generation. 

Swedish politicians are only human and politics everywhere is brutal. But while the world is watching, Sweden’s reputation is at stake. This is a country of problem-solvers where the consensus still reigns. If the country’s leaders believe in the progressive Swedish values that they have been espousing on the campaign trail, now is the time to prove it.

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