Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Germania. Le cose vanno così bene che Merkel pensa di far fagotto.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-09-20.

Calimero Fagotto

Per capire l’articolo, leggere per cortesia sia il testo sia gli allegati ed i link.


La situazione tedesca inizia a dare segni sempre più vistosi di cedimenti.

I risultati elettorali delle prossime elezioni in Hessen ed in Baviera si preannunciano destruenti per la Große Koalition.

Germania. Hessen. Cdu -9.5, Spd -6.5, Afd +10 punti percentuali.

Germania. Baviera. Csu perderebbe undici punti percentuali.

Baviera. Csu – 8 punti percentuali in sei mesi.

Lebbrosi. Buone notizie. Cdu-Csu scese al 28% (-5 punti percentuali).

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Ma le cose non si preannunciano migliori nell’Unione Europea.

Europarlamento. Il problema sono i 197 contrari ed i 58 astenuti.

Unione Europea. Il ppe sta subendo una mutazione genetica.

Elezioni europee. I sovranisti iniziano le grandi manovre.

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Non è Alternative für Deutschland a crescere:

sono Cdu, Csu ed Spd che stanno crollando.

Nei Länder orientali AfD supera il 25%, ed anche i tedeschi orientali votano.

Quello che una volta era il trono del cancelliere adesso è lo straccio messo per terra di Frau Merkel.

L’affaire Maassen è stato solo l’ultimo segnale.

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«For nearly two weeks Chancellor Angela Merkel tried to find a way to fire her own domestic intelligence chief, a man who had publicly contradicted her and become the darling of the far right for questioning the authenticity of a video showing angry white men chasing an immigrant»

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«But she couldn’t — not without risking the collapse of her fragile government»

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«Hans-Georg Maassen, the rebellious spy, has powerful friends, among them his immediate boss, Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, the leader of the Bavarian conservatives and one of Ms. Merkel’s pricklier coalition partners»

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«Merkel was an authority at home and abroad. …. She stood up to Trump, negotiated peace deals and passed the laws she wanted to pass. She was the queen of consensus. …. Now she can’t even fire the head of an agency …. she has become a lame duck»

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Non ci sono molte alternative: dimissioni oppure cercare di conquistarsi un posticino qualsiasi, potrebbe essere l’IMF così come una Commissione nell’Unione Europea. Naturalmente, Frau Merkel non disdegnerebbe la Presidenza della Commissione, di subentrare cioè al posto di Mr Juncker.

Merkel vuol lasciare la Germania per guidare la Commissione europea

«Germania ed Europa potrebbero trovarsi alla vigilia di un “cambio di sistema”, un assetto politico molto diverso da quello del recente passato. La figura chiave nei nuovi equilibri sarebbe ancora una volta la cancelliera tedesca Angela Merkel.»

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«In ambienti vicini al governo di Berlino si mette in dubbio, per la prima volta in modo significativo, la permanenza di Angela Merkel a capo del governo tedesco per l’intera legislatura»

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«Fonti informate ritengono che Merkel possa decidere nel prossimo semestre di uscire di scena, per rientrare nel gioco delle nomine europee»

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«Un colpo di teatro a Berlino è possibile, se non necessario, in conseguenza del terremoto provocato negli equilibri politici tedeschi da “Alternativa per la Germania”»

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«Il movimento ha posizioni inconciliabili con quelle degli altri partiti tradizionali, ma sta catalizzando il consenso di una quota sempre crescente di elettori, e sta rendendo impossibile governare con solide maggioranze secondo le vecchie alleanze»

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«Dopo le elezioni di ottobre in Baviera, il partito conservatore Csu, abituato a controllare la maggioranza assoluta del Land, si troverà costretto quasi certamente a governare per la prima volta con i Verdi. Nelle successive elezioni in Assia, l’attuale coalizione Cdu-Verdi sarà messa a dura prova dagli elettori conservatori, orfani anche di un significativo partito liberale, che vedono il partito di centro allearsi ancora una volta a sinistra»

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«L’impossibilità di coalizzarsi con “Alternativa” sposta automaticamente la Cdu verso sinistra, cioè nell’unica direzione dove può trovare partiti di dimensioni tali da formare una coalizione di maggioranza. Ma facendo questo, il partito della cancelliera lascia scoperta un’area conservatrice che finisce nelle braccia degli xenofobi. »

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«A livello federale, l’impasse ha finito per logorare sia il partito socialdemocratico, che preferirebbe ricostruirsi stando all’opposizione, sia la cancelliera.»

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I partiti tradizionali hanno dato ostracismo ad AfD, mettendo così i fattivi presupposti per farla crescere: nei fatti è l’unico partito di opposizione.

Un bel giorno si siederanno ad un tavolo a trattare, ma lo faranno come fecero i loro avi a Compiègne.

Intanto, Merkel kaputt.


The New York Tims. 2018-09-19. As the Far Right Gains in Germany, Merkel Weakens

BERLIN — For nearly two weeks Chancellor Angela Merkel tried to find a way to fire her own domestic intelligence chief, a man who had publicly contradicted her and become the darling of the far right for questioning the authenticity of a video showing angry white men chasing an immigrant.

But she couldn’t — not without risking the collapse of her fragile government.

Hans-Georg Maassen, the rebellious spy, has powerful friends, among them his immediate boss, Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, the leader of the Bavarian conservatives and one of Ms. Merkel’s pricklier coalition partners.

Instead of firing Mr. Maassen, Ms. Merkel had to allow Mr. Seehofer to promote him. Mr. Maassen will get a pay raise of about 2,500 euros a month.

“You couldn’t make it up,” said Andrea Römmele, a professor of political science at the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin.

If the episode shows anything, analysts said in the aftermath, it is that Ms. Merkel is growing more feeble even as the far right — in Parliament, online and on the streets — is getting stronger.

The chancellor’s inability to act decisively has exposed the spectacular weakening of a leader who not long ago was seen as a key defender of the liberal order. That view was cemented by her decision in 2015 to welcome to Germany hundreds of thousands of migrants from the Middle East, Africa and elsewhere who were not wanted by neighboring European countries.

Three years later, as a nationalist and populist backlash is spreading, Ms. Merkel has so little authority left that many here wonder how much longer she can last.

“Merkel was an authority at home and abroad,” Ms. Römmele said. “She stood up to Trump, negotiated peace deals and passed the laws she wanted to pass. She was the queen of consensus.”

“Now she can’t even fire the head of an agency,” Ms. Römmele added. Six months into her fourth term, “she has become a lame duck.”

Ever since an inconclusive election last September, Ms. Merkel has stumbled from one political crisis to another. In the election, her party saw a significant decline in voter support and a far-right party, the Alternative for Germany, entered Parliament for the first time in more than 60 years.

In the end it took six months to form a government, an unwieldy one straddling left and right, with Ms. Merkel perched precariously at its center.

That government almost fell apart in the summer, when Mr. Seehofer, the interior minister, challenged the chancellor over her immigration policies and demanded the reintroduction of border controls with Austria.

That earlier episode was just a foretaste of how the Alternative for Germany, or AfD, has been using its toehold in Parliament — where it now has the megaphone of being the leading opposition party — to reorder German politics.

Mr. Seehofer’s party, the Christian Social Union, has been veering sharply to the right ahead of state elections in Bavaria next month, trying to fend off a challenge from the AfD, which is on course to deprive it of its absolute majority.

But there was also the larger and more important question for Germany of Mr. Maassen’s own political sympathies, and whether they were undermining his agency’s ability to assess links between far-right politicians and dangerous neo-Nazi groups.

In an interview with Germany’s best-selling tabloid newspaper, Bild, Mr. Maassen suggested that a widely circulated video of a dark-skinned man being chased by a number of white men, during riotous protests in Chemnitz at the end of August, was a fake.

“There is no evidence that the video circulating on the internet about this purported event is authentic,” he told Bild, adding that there were “good reasons to believe that this was a case of targeted misinformation.”

He later walked back on his claims, saying he had been “misunderstood.”

But Mr. Maassen, who has met several times with AfD politicians in recent years, had vetted and authorized the initial comments before publication. Reports that he had spoken to Mr. Seehofer before the interview intensified speculation that the two men, both longtime critics of Ms. Merkel’s migration policy, were trying to undermine the chancellor’s authority.

If Ms. Merkel thought she could quell the turmoil inside her government by moving Mr. Maassen out of his post, she was wrong.

On Wednesday, Mr. Seehofer publicly defended Mr. Maassen, saying he had his “full trust” and calling him “competent and loyal.”

Mr. Maassen, who has been promoted to under secretary in the interior ministry, will remain in place as president of the domestic intelligence agency — the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, as it is known here — until a successor is named.

Despite Mr. Maassen’s recent comments on the protests in Chemnitz, his vast new brief will include overseeing “public security” and the federal police — though not the intelligence office, Mr. Seehofer said.

The outrage among commentators and politicians, even from within Ms. Merkel’s own camp, was widespread.

“I would like a president of the agency for the protection of the constitution of whom the enemies of the constitution are afraid,” said Peter Tauber, a conservative lawmaker.

Katrin-Göring Eckhardt of the Greens spoke of the “unbelievable jiggery-pokery” in rewarding Mr. Maassen for “disloyalty” and for “cozying up to the AfD.”

But fear of the far right — and, by extension, of new elections that would most likely strengthen it further — was one reason Ms. Merkel and her other governing partner, the Social Democrats, let Mr. Seehofer have his way.

Many also pointed out the dangerous signal the deal had sent to voters. “Ordinary people get punished for the smallest misstep and the elites get promoted,” said Jens Hacke, a political scientist at the University of Greifswald. “This message will only strengthen the AfD.”

Former Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel called the whole episode “crazy.”

“If disloyalty and incompetence are rewarded with career jumps,” he said, “then Horst Seehofer has every chance to become U.N. secretary general.”

But a good dose of the criticism was directed at the chancellor herself, underscoring the sense that though Ms. Merkel won the round, she was weakened in the fight.

Some inside the Social Democratic Party, Ms. Merkel’s other coalition partner, were so furious that they urged their leadership to quit the government.

“My personal pain threshold has been reached,” said Kevin Kühnert, the influential leader of the party’s youth organization. The price for staying in government, he said, “has become too high.”


Reuters. 2018-09-19. Merkel coalition slides into ‘permanent crisis mode’ with spy row

BERLIN (Reuters) – A clumsy compromise to end a row over the fate of Germany’s spy chief has exposed a cruel fact: the parties in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s right-left coalition are loveless partners in a dysfunctional relationship that none of them can afford to quit.

The coalition leaders sought on Tuesday to end a scandal that had rumbled on for 11 days by agreeing to replace the head of the BfV domestic intelligence agency, who has faced accusations of harboring far-right sympathies.

Their solution – promoting spymaster Hans-Georg Maassen to a better paid position at the Interior Ministry – has only inflamed tensions among the rank-and-file of the ruling parties, whose leaders are united by fear more than collective purpose.

The scandal, the latest in a series of setbacks to shake the six-month-old coalition, threatens to erode further the German ruling elite’s authority and may point to years of policy drift just as Germany and Europe are crying out for firm leadership.

Merkel is yet to address the criticism that the coalition lacks direction.

Polls show both Merkel’s conservative bloc and its junior coalition partner, the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), would bleed votes to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the ecologist Greens in any new elections.

That leaves their leaders hanging on to the awkward right-left ‘grand coalition’ as Merkel, serving her fourth and likely final term as chancellor, tries to secure her legacy as a stateswoman and the SPD struggles to remain relevant to voters.

“The grand coalition is like a dead marriage where the spouses have too many intertwined assets to be able to separate without heavy losses,” said Josef Joffe, publisher-editor of weekly Die Zeit.

“They would be trounced in snap elections. Nor can they recruit more docile partners among the four opposition parties.”

The Maassen scandal comes only two months after Merkel closed a painful row with her Bavarian CSU allies on immigration – an issue that goes back to her 2015 decision to leave open Germany’s borders to refugees fleeing war in the Middle East.

The SPD had wanted Maassen removed after he questioned the authenticity of video footage showing far-right radicals hounding migrants in the eastern German city of Chemnitz.

But Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, leader of the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU), sister party of Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU), stood behind Maassen.

By promoting the spymaster to the post of state secretary in his Interior Ministry, Seehofer found a solution that satisfied the SPD’s demand for Maassen’s removal from the BfV but left the coalition looking lame.

“The only thing that is still grand in this coalition is the absolute determination to carry on muddling through,” mass-selling daily Bild wrote in an editorial.

“PERMANENT CRISIS MODE”

Speaking at the sidelines of a European Union meeting in Salzburg, Merkel defended the Maassen deal as a “right and important” decision.

Merkel stressed that Maassen would not be in charge of domestic security issues in his new position.

The SPD had accused the former spymaster of having too close ties to the anti-immigration AfD party.

The grand coalition only took office in March, nearly six months after last year’s election, as there was effectively no other viable governing option following the collapse of talks between Merkel’s conservatives and two smaller parties.

After the Maassen deal, pressure is growing in the SPD for its leaders to reconsider the coalition or else deliver results that will win back working class voters who are turning to the far right or left, and middle class voters moving to the Greens.

“Patience in the SPD with this grand coalition is extremely thin,” said Ralf Stegner, a senior SPD official.

Even SPD Secretary General Lars Klingbeil questioned Maassen’s promotion, adding: “We must finally get out of this permanent crisis mode.”

SPD leader Andrea Nahles said the party should remain in the coalition but added that Seehofer’s decision to transfer Maassen to his ministry was a “further burden” for cooperation.

In a letter to party members, she added: “The SPD shouldn’t sacrifice this government because Horst Seehofer employs a civil servant whom we consider to be unsuitable.”

Merkel’s 2015 decision on refugees has proved to be the defining moment of her leadership and one that still haunts her as the CSU, fearful of losing votes to the AfD in Bavaria’s state election on Oct. 14, tries to sound tough on immigration.

The CSU is likely to lose its absolute majority in Bavaria, which could make it an even more difficult partner for Merkel.

Nationally, the conservative bloc is polling around 30 percent, down from 33 percent in last September’s election. The SPD is on about 18 percent, down from 20.5 percent. The AfD is polling around 15 percent, with the Greens close behind.

“So it is in (Merkel’s) interests to keep up the image of a coalition that is functional and capable of acting,” said Gero Neugebauer, political scientist at Berlin’s Free University.

“She is managing to do that less and less,” he said, adding that even after the Maassen deal conflicts between the coalition parties were “bubbling away like lava in a volcano”.


Sole 24 Ore. 2018-09-20. Merkel vuol lasciare la Germania per guidare la Commissione europea

Germania ed Europa potrebbero trovarsi alla vigilia di un “cambio di sistema”, un assetto politico molto diverso da quello del recente passato. La figura chiave nei nuovi equilibri sarebbe ancora una volta la cancelliera tedesca Angela Merkel. In ambienti vicini al governo di Berlino si mette in dubbio, per la prima volta in modo significativo, la permanenza di Angela Merkel a capo del governo tedesco per l’intera legislatura. Fonti informate ritengono che Merkel possa decidere nel prossimo semestre di uscire di scena, per rientrare nel gioco delle nomine europee. L’attuale candidatura alla presidenza della Commissione europea di Manfred Weber, esponente della Csu e capogruppo del Partito popolare europeo, potrebbe essere rimessa in discussione nel caso Merkel optasse lei stessa per un incarico di vertice a Bruxelles. Un colpo di teatro a Berlino è possibile, se non necessario, in conseguenza del terremoto provocato negli equilibri politici tedeschi da “Alternativa per la Germania”.

Il movimento ha posizioni inconciliabili con quelle degli altri partiti tradizionali, ma sta catalizzando il consenso di una quota sempre crescente di elettori, e sta rendendo impossibile governare con solide maggioranze secondo le vecchie alleanze.

Dopo le elezioni di ottobre in Baviera, il partito conservatore Csu, abituato a controllare la maggioranza assoluta del Land, si troverà costretto quasi certamente a governare per la prima volta con i Verdi. Nelle successive elezioni in Assia, l’attuale coalizione Cdu-Verdi sarà messa a dura prova dagli elettori conservatori, orfani anche di un significativo partito liberale, che vedono il partito di centro allearsi ancora una volta a sinistra. Proprio la Cdu, il partito della cancelliera, ad agosto ha sondato un’alleanza in Sassonia per il 2019 addirittura con la sinistra radicale “Die Linke”, pur di non allearsi con “Alternativa” che raccoglie un voto su quattro nella regione di Dresda.

L’impossibilità di coalizzarsi con “Alternativa” sposta automaticamente la Cdu verso sinistra, cioè nell’unica direzione dove può trovare partiti di dimensioni tali da formare una coalizione di maggioranza. Ma facendo questo, il partito della cancelliera lascia scoperta un’area conservatrice che finisce nelle braccia degli xenofobi. Alternativa d’altronde ha cambiato il significato stesso delle politiche di destra in Germania, radicalizzando le posizioni su immigrazione, Europa e sicurezza personale, al punto di rendere difficile per i partiti democratici seguirla sullo stesso linguaggio o addirittura farsi portatori di politiche conservatrici tout court. Perfino la Csu, che ha cercato di coprire nei toni, se non nelle politiche, la fascia più di destra dell’elettorato bavarese, ha finito per perdere voti, a sinistra verso i Verdi, e a destra verso i “Freie Waehler” e la stessa “Alternativa per la Germania”.

A livello federale, l’impasse ha finito per logorare sia il partito socialdemocratico, che preferirebbe ricostruirsi stando all’opposizione, sia la cancelliera. Di fatto la Germania non può più contare sul tradizionale baricentro politico che dava al sistema un’impareggiabile stabilità, rappresentata dalla decennale guida della cancelliera. Tuttavia, la pressione su Angela Merkel da parte dei partiti e dei media sta diventando insopportabile. Le sue apparizioni in pubblico nei nuovi Laender orientali sono spesso imbarazzanti per le manifestazioni di protesta organizzate dal partito nazionalista. I media tedeschi, afflitti da una grave perdita di credibilità presso il largo pubblico, stanno contribuendo al rafforzamento del partito nazionalista e alla perdita di consenso dei partiti tradizionali.

Per Merkel si tratta di prendere nei prossimi mesi una decisione molto difficile, perché la sua successione alla guida della Cdu e del Paese non è ancora pronta. I nomi più citati non sono considerati abbastanza autorevoli e tali da mantenere la barra stabile in un panorama politico reso tanto turbolento dal rischio di deriva nazionalista. Le riflessioni sul futuro della cancelliera procedono a un livello preliminare e confidenziale e verranno sviluppate nel corso dei prossimi mesi anche con l’obiettivo di evitare che i partiti tradizionali possano essere logorati o addirittura travolti da una serie di insuccessi elettorali che destabilizzerebbe ulteriormente gli equilibri politici del Paese e del continente.

Il tiepido appoggio di Angela Merkel alla candidatura di Manfred Weber alla guida della Commissione non sarebbe un ostacolo insormontabile e ha quanto meno il beneficio di aver assicurato alla Germania un diritto riconosciuto a candidarsi alla posizione di leader dell’esecutivo comunitario. L’approvazione di una candidatura Merkel da parte del Partito popolare europeo, secondo le procedure del “candidato di vertice” da effettuare nel Parlamento di Strasburgo, viene data a Berlino per scontata. Che sia Weber, o non direttamente la cancelliera Merkel, si chiarirà solamente nel corso dei prossimi sei mesi. Ma una candidatura Merkel a Bruxelles, secondo le fonti, non troverebbe ostacoli nelle maggiori capitali e rappresenterebbe un “cambio di regime” anche per l’Europa, ridando personalità e centralità politica alle istituzioni comunitarie.

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