Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Stati Uniti, Trump

Fed Atlanta. Pil T3 proiettato al 4.4%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.


FED 001

La Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ha rilasciato il Report «GDP Now».

The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a “nowcast” of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model.

Recent forecasts for the GDPNow model are available here. More extensive numerical details—including underlying source data, forecasts, and model parameters—are available as a separate spreadsheet. You can also view an archive of recent commentaries from GDPNow estimates.

Latest forecast: 4.4 percent — September 14, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.4 percent on September 14, up from 3.8 percent on September 11. The nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 3.0 percent to 3.7 percent after this morning’s retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning’s industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

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Il dato ha ben pochi commenti.

Essendo la prospezione del 14 settembre, sembrerebbe essere verosimile che nei restanti 14 giorni questa stima non debba variare di molto, forse, qualche decimo di punto percentuale.

Gran bel risultato dell’Amministrazione Trump, che si appresta ad affrontare le elezioni di midterm avendo in mano risultati concreti.