Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Germania. Migranti. La telenovela continua con la Spd. E Mr Trump sta a guardare.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-07-04.

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I conti dovrebbero essere fatti sempre con l’oste, in caso contrario ci si potrebbe trovare a lavar piatti per una vita.

Frau Merkel ed Herr Seehofer hanno trovato sui migranti un compromesso che a breve dimostrerà quanto sia inaccettabile da ambo le parti, ma Frau Merkel, anche se si comporta da autocrate, di potere ne ha più proprio pochino pochino.

La Große Koalition ha come membro junior la Spd: a quanto sembrerebbe, nessuno si è preso la briga di consultarli durante le trattative Merkel – Seehofer.

Il sondaggio Insa del 3 luglio disegna un quadro feroce.

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L’Union, Cdu e Csu, crollerebbero dal 32.9% al 29%, l’Spd dal 20.5% al 19%, mentre AfD salirebbe dal 12.6% al 16.5%, su scala federale.

I socialdemocratici iniziano a sentirsi correre per la schiena la scomparsa dalla scena politica: ed il come Frau Merkel li ha trattati mette bene in evidenza quanto poco contino. Ma a parere di molti Frau Merkel ha dimostrato anche nei loro confronti un’arroganza più giustificabile nei comportamenti di un vero vincitore che di un sicuro perdente.

«Social Democrats say they will need to talk more about the migration deal brokered by the German chancellor to quell rebellion in conservative ranks»

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«What will likely need to happen for the SPD to give the green light?»

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«The CSU is under pressure to demonstrate its conservative credentials on migration to head off a challenge from the far-right Alternative for Germany party in Bavaria’s regional election in October»

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«But Bavarian conservatives have some work to do to convince the SPD, which hasn’t had much good to say about transit centers in the past»

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«And without the Social Democrats, there’s no deal.»

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«”The SPD has won the day,” Gabriel wrote on Twitter back then. “Transit zones are off the table. No house arrest, no fences.”»

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Stiamo assistendo alla lenta agonia di un governo dei perdenti.

Nessuna delle forze di governo, Cdu, Csu ed Spd sa cosa fare per poter almeno ridurre le perdite elettorali che si preannunciano severe sia in Hessen sia in Baviera.

Evidente è stata la perdita di potere politico tedesco durante il Consiglio Europeo, conclusosi con una dichiarazione anodina, che avrebbe detto tutto e poi non dice nulla, tranne patetiche esortazioni.

E sullo sfondo c’è sempre il convitato di pietra.

Mr Trump sta strangolando il sistema economico tedesco, e Frau Merkel pagherà ben cara la sua tracotante arroganza.

Se poi alle elezioni di midterm, come sembrerebbe essere possibile, Mr Trump conservasse almeno il controllo del Senato, a Frau Merkel non resterebbe altra via che il suicidio politico.

Ci si pensi bene

Il crollo di Frau Merkel ha segnato l’afflosciamento dell’Unione Europea così come la avevamo conosciuta da decenni.

Merito per alcuni, demerito per altri, Pegida, Afd ed i populisti italiani le stanno dando il benservito.

Guardate con attenzione questi sondaggi per l’Hessen (Assia), ove si voterà a breve. La Cdu crolla dal 38.3% al 31%, la Spd dal 30.7% al 22%, ed AfD balza dal 4.1% al 15%. Paucis verbis: Merkel, vattene.

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Deutsche Welle. 2018-07-04. Germany’s SPD makes Angela Merkel wait for approval on migrant deal

Social Democrats say they will need to talk more about the migration deal brokered by the German chancellor to quell rebellion in conservative ranks. What will likely need to happen for the SPD to give the green light?

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Social Democrats say they will need to talk more about the migration deal brokered by the German chancellor to quell rebellion in conservative ranks. What will likely need to happen for the SPD to give the green light?

Scholz said that further discussions within the coalition would take place on Thursday.

On Monday, the CDU and CSU reached a last-minute agreement to head off a potential rebellion by Bavarian conservatives against Merkel. The deal centered on the establishment of so-called transit centers along Germany’s border with Austria, which the CSU says would facilitate checks on migrants trying to enter Germany and accelerate deportations.

The CSU is under pressure to demonstrate its conservative credentials on migration to head off a challenge from the far-right Alternative for Germany party in Bavaria’s regional election in October. But Bavarian conservatives have some work to do to convince the SPD, which hasn’t had much good to say about transit centers in the past. And without the Social Democrats, there’s no deal.

A battle the SPD previously won?

From the Social Democratic point of view, one of the biggest problems is that the party already resoundingly rejected transit centers back in 2015 during Germany’s previous grand coalition government.

In late 2015, SPD leaders including now-Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, Ex-Foreign Minister and former Party Chairman Sigmar Gabriel and Secretary-General Lars Klingbeil took to social media to portray the zones as “gigantic prisons” and “mass camps in no man’s land.”

“The SPD has won the day,” Gabriel wrote on Twitter back then. “Transit zones are off the table. No house arrest, no fences.”

With that in mind, the SPD is almost certain to insist at least upon a change in name for the facilities proposed by the CDU and CSU. Ahead of the Tuesday evening meeting, Nahles told German television that her party “rejects this concept.” Nahles also characterized the conservative ideas as a mere sketch, “full of uncovered checks,” and not a completely realized plan.

That choice of phrase leaves enough wiggle room for Social Democrats to reach some sort of agreement with conservatives on new migrant processing facilities, provided they’re called something else. But whether the SPD’s own grass roots will allow the leadership to exploit that leeway is another matter.

Closed camps as a no-go

Early Wednesday morning, the SPD leadership will report on their meeting with conservatives to the Social Democrat parliamentary group. The left wing of the party, meanwhile, has already begun voicing its dissatisfaction with the deal.

“The SPD has clearly said no to closed camps,” the influential head of the Social Democrats’ youth wing, Kevin Kühnert, told German television. “It doesn’t matter whether they’re in North Africa, on the external border of Europe or in Passau.”

As it is, the SPD is struggling to recover from an internal split over whether it should renew its coalition with Merkel’s conservatives, an issue on which roughly a third of its members disagree with the party leadership. Other influential figures including Klingbeil have also said that the Social Democrats will not accept any “closed camps.”

Part of the SPD leadership’s strategy for winning over their base seems to be to claim that the deal reached between the CDU and the CSU doesn’t really change anything. Over the weekend, to little fanfare, the SPD presented its own five-point plan on migration. Social Democrats could well insist that conservatives agree to back their proposal for a general law governing immigration to Germany in return for the SPD backing the CDU-CSU compromise.

It’s in the SPD’s best interest to facilitate a reconciliation between Germany’s two conservative parties. A divorce between the CDU and CSU would almost certainly prompt a fresh national election. That’s something that the SPD, currently mired in historic lows of 16 to 18 percent in public opinion polls, can ill afford.

But if there’s any comfort in schadenfreude, it’s on the way. On Wednesday morning, Merkel addresses the German parliament, the Bundestag, where she’s sure to face a scornful grilling from the opposition about the messy spat over migration among conservatives. The SPD can, for a moment at least, simply sit back and enjoy the show.

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